2026加速前行：2026年电气化设备关键趋势研究报告

Electrification equipmenttrends to watch in 2026 Power demand growth, bottlenecks in equipment supply, labor shortages,and changing trade policies: Amid these shifts, where are the opportunitiesfor OEMs across the electrification supply chain? This article is a collaborative effort by Fridolin Pflugmann, Harald Bauer, and Luigi Gigliotti, with Adrian Pelz, EvaDaminato, Friederike Fietz, Lia Jakob, and Sol Puente, representing views from McKinsey’s Industrials Practice. Global electricity demandhas surged over the past two decades. In fact, it nearly doubled from 2000 to2023.1In 2024, demand continued to accelerate, rising by approximately 4 percent (around 1,000 terawatt-hours [TWh]) and approaching 30,000 TWh threshold for the first time.2 What has fueled this robust growth? Global demand has surged due to rapid economic growth,industrialization, and urbanization as well as the increased use of digital infrastructure. Rising livingstandards in combination with increased use of air conditioning, electric vehicles (EVs), and heat pumps arealso contributing factors. Despite the boom, dynamics play out differently across sectors and geographies. While power infrastructureinvestments are surging, renewable and hydrogen generation projects have been reassessed and delayeddue to shifting priorities, economic challenges, and bottlenecks within the equipment supply chain. The implications for global OEMs are considerable. While electrification hardware revenues are projected tocontinue to grow by 2035, the pace of that growth has moderated compared with earlier projections. OEMsspecializing in high-complexity technologies for growth segments such as power infrastructure and datacenters continue to see strong market momentum, while those with more-commoditized portfolios faceweaker growth and rising cost pressure. In this article, we examine the implications of McKinsey’s 2025 energy outlook for the electrificationequipment supply chain (see sidebar “About the Global Energy Perspective 2025”). First, we review howpower demand is developing globally, spurred by GDP growth and electrification. Then, we dig deeper intothe trends that will shape equipment value pools in the next wave of electrification. Global power demand growth About the Global EnergyPerspective 2025 Looking ahead, McKinsey’sGlobal EnergyPerspective(GEP) forecasts sustained electricitydemand growth at nearly 3 percent per yearthrough 20353—equivalent to adding the wholepower demand of Japan annually.4Emerging anddeveloping economies are expected to prompt70 percent of the increase. TheGlobal Energy Perspective 2025modelsthe outlook for demand and supply of energycommodities in three bottom-up energytransition scenarios that examine outcomesof warming ranging from 1.9°C to 2.7°C by2100.1These scenarios are based on varyingunderlying assumptions about, for example,the pace of technological progress and thelevel of policy enforcement. The scenarios areshaped by hundreds of drivers within sectors,technologies, policies, costs, and fuels, and theyserve as a fact base to inform decision-makerson the challenges to overcome to enable theenergy transition. Indeed, McKinsey Global Institute modelingshows a strong and well-established link betweenGDP growth and power demand, with risingeconomic activity typically driving higher energyconsumption across industries, households, andservices. Historically, growth in global electricitydemand has been roughly at or slightly below GDPgrowth, with elasticity varying by country and stageof development.5In emerging economies, the linkis especially strong: For example, in India and partsof Southeast Asia between 2001 and 2024, a 1.0 1Global Energy Perspective 2025, McKinsey, October 13, 2025. percent increase in GDP has been associated with a 1.1 percent rise in electricity demand from expandingindustrial output, developing infrastructure, and rising living standards. In contrast, in mature economies such as the United States and the European Union, electricity demandgrows more slowly than GDP—between 0.5 and 0.8 percent per 1.0 percent of growth—due to energyefficiency improvements, a shift in industry mix, and reduced demand from energy-intensive industries.However, as digitalization, electrification of transport, and the expansion of AI and data centers accelerate,electricity demand is beginning to rise even in advanced economies, despite moderate GDP growth. In this environment of growing power demand, electrification continues to gain momentum as a catalyst forindustrial and economic change. As a result, we expect not only absolute growth in power demand but alsoa shift toward power in the global energy mix. Electricity’s share in final energy consumption has increasedfrom 18 percent in 2010 to 22 percent today and could reach 24 percent by the end of the decade, accordingto our modeling. This trend underscores electrification’s growing importance to future energy systems andsupply chains, though the o