化工：为伊朗相关周期布局并上调阿科玛评级至市场表现

Chemicals: Positioning for an Iran-related cycle and upgradingArkema to Market-Perform supplyoversupply issues.Even if theceasefireholds andthe Strait of Hormuz remains open,theblockages willtakelong enoughto clearthat we see shorter-termupside to expectations,particularly for companies with upstream exposure.But from this pointthepath is less clear.This episode couldseem likeabaddream,andwe resume cyclical recoverydebates.Orhigherinflationcouldleadtodemanddestruction.Weleanmorecautiouslyfornow,giventhelogisticalchallenges.Therefore,despiteour2Qbullishness,weareoveralleffectivelyinlinewithconsensus forFY26.Wetakeabalancedportfolioapproach, with industrialgases at thecore, BASF and PPG leading in their segments,andwe upgrade Arkema to Market-Perform. +442076766995james.hooper@bernsteinsg.com Specialist SalesJamesBrady +442077625272james.brady@bernsteinsg.com +19173448401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com The lran-related disruptiontosupply chains has hit Asia worsethan otherregions.PowerandfeedstockchallengeshaveledtoconsiderableamountsofAsiancapacitydeclaringforce majeure.In particular,this has supported upstream producers, who havebenefitted from very strong pricing,and especially in North America, where natural gas-based production costs have changed little.Ourcoverage has reportedfewoperationalissuesto date,sowe seenear-termupsideto consensusforecasts forupstreamchemicals,particularlyfor BASFand Arkema. However,higherprices arelikelytoaffectdemand.Wearemorein-lineversusFY26expectations,meaningweseedownsideto H2.Weexpectnormalisationstartinglatesummer,from Asian supply resumptions and inflation-led demand destruction.PPG'srecentpositivepre-announcement of1Q26EPS couldbeusedas anexampleofthis trendAfter implying a strong H1, there was no reiteration of the FY guide. But there is potential&Coatingsscreenwell,althoughweretainscepticismthebearcaseistoosoft.Weseelittledownsideinthegases,andmorebalanceintheindustrialsegment. WeupgradeArkematoMarket-Perform.We see10%upsideto2Q26BloombergEBITDA consensus,and thereforebelieve we havereached the end of the estimate cutsupernormal profits in acrylic monomers,particularly in China. From here we see riskreward as more balanced.We believe Arkema would perform strongly in a soft landing,but Arkema's construction exposure may not be a tailwind in a world with higher for longerinterest rates and renewed pressure on ordinary income consumers. We still likethegases,with Lindetoppick.Ournextpreference isfor BASFoftheindustrial names and PPG in Paints & Coatings. We see upside for all three industrialgas majors, and we expect that strong pricing will support earnings into 2027. Of theindustrial companies,we believe BASFhas thebest chance of managingan lran-ledcycle.Weforecast FY26EBITDA above thetop of guidance through higher exposure tothe most disrupted supply chains (ethylene and ammonia), and we see potential for anagricultural cycle starting in 2H26,as well as more news on the expected 2027 IPO. We aremore cautious on Paints &Coatings, whereFY26 guidance maybe at risk.But we retain apreference for PPG, given their strong execution. INVESTMENTIMPLICATIONS In preference order: We rate Linde, Air Products, Air Liquide, BASF, PPG, and Syensqo Outperform. We rate Arkema, Akzo Nobel,Borouge, Clariant, and Solvay Market-Perform. Weupdate all 11 of our models. We model for disruption lasting into the summer.This means price increases across thecoverage,and volumedowngradesforthe restof 2026.Weforecast price increases forthe Industrial Gas and Paints &Coatings (P&C) companies to be stickierthan forthe industrial peers in 2027. More detail on the model updates is provided from p 27. aboveinQz Air Products FY ends in September, Calendar Q1 is therefore theirfiscal Q2; we exclude Borouge because of a lack of consensus dataSource:Bloomberg,Company information, Bernsteinanalysis andestimates Chemicalsshareprices havediverged sincethestartoftheIsrael-US-lranconflict.Western Chemicals indicesareeffectivelyflat sincetheUS and Israel beganbombingIran (SX4P+1%,S5CHEM-2%).However,thisbelies considerablevariation in the performance of individual stocks. Those with more consumer-facing exposure, such as Ingredients and Paintsand Coatings, havebeen punished, whereas upstream chemicals have performed better (Exhibit 4, Exhibit 5). Exhibit 7).This has ledto a long list of affected chemicals plants declaring forcemajeure,particularly compared to other regions(Exhibit 8 to Exhibit 10), and many others also running with reduced output that are not captured by our data. In particular,upstreamproducerswhohavepreviouslybeenstrugglingwith overcapacityhavebenefittedfromscarcityvalueandverystrongpricing. Especially in North America, where gas-based production costs have changed little, much of this pricing will lead toChemicals:Preliminary views on the impact of conflictin the Middle East and Chemicals:Downside scenarios for our Europeanindustrial coverage from the Middle East conflict, Exhibit