气候风险如何重塑能源系统

Physical Climate Risk Exposureand Resilience Readiness AcrossAsia’s Electric Utilities November 2025 About the Asia Investor Groupon Climate Change About MSCI Institute The MSCI Institute is on a mission to advance knowledge that tackles systemicchallenges to create long-term value through global capital markets. TheInstitute pursues its mission through research, education and events thatequip financial institutions, academic researchers, policymakers and NGOswith the insights they need to drive progress. For more information, pleasevisitmsci-institute.com. AIGCC is the leading network of investors in Asia focussing on risks andopportunities in climate and nature — which are key to investors’ fiduciary duty. Our 80+ members have a combined AUM of $36 trn and have headquarters in11 markets across the region. We are a not-for-profit, and our work across finance, business and policy makingis underpinned by science, economics, and a deep knowledge of Asian marketsand dynamics. Antitrust Reminder The Asian Utilities Engagement Program and this report is not intended tofacilitate or require collective decision-making regarding an investmentdecision. This initiative and report will not provide recommendations to investorsto divest, vote in a particular way or make any other investment decision –investors are expected to continue to make their own independent investmentand strategic decisions. Acknowledgments This report is co-authored by the Asia Investor Group on Climate Change (AIGCC)(Jeffrey Tong and Firdaus Anuar) and MSCI Institute (Siyao He and Ser Jin Tan, withspecial thanks to Claudio Saffioti for his contribution). We thank the followingcolleagues at AIGCC and MSCI who have provided their feedback and supportfor this report: Anjali Viswamohanan, Monica Bae, Valerie Kwan, Fergus Pitt, SeruniSoewondo, Serena Li, Nigel DeCoopman, Cosmo Hui, Daniel Cremin, UmarAshfaq, Mathew Lee. AIGCC is grateful for the support of our philanthropic funder, the Tara ClimateFoundation, for their support of the Asian Utilities Engagement Program, to whichthis report contributes. Special thanks to the members who provided their perspectives, feedback andinformation that fed into this project. The feedback provided by these individualsdoes not represent an investment endorsement or recommendation and doesnot reflect any policies or positions of their firms. Contents Emerging Good Practices in Risk Assessment and Management37Gaps in Clarity Around Climate Scenario Analysis and Capital Allocation38Addressing Hazard and Asset Coverage Gaps in Assessments38Company Spotlights: Emerging Best Practices in Disclosure39 Executive Summary5 Introduction8 Material Impacts of Physical Risks on Asia’s Utilities9Investor Expectations of Power Utilities in Asia11 Ways Forward for Systemic Resilience41 Exposure and Risk Assessment of Asia’s Utilities For Utilities43For Policymakers and Regulators45For Institutional Investors46 Analysis Overview: 2,422 Assets Across Seven Markets13Geographically Concentrated Power Generation17Quantifying the Financial Impacts of Physical Risks17Heat-Related Risks (Extreme Heat, River Low Flow, Wildfires)23Water-Related Risks (Extreme Precipitation, and Coastal, Fluvialand Pluvial Flooding)26Wind-Related Risks (Extreme Wind and Tropical Cyclones)29Cold-Related Risks (Extreme Cold and Extreme Snowfall)30 Appendices47 Appendix A: Information on Climate Scenarios and PathwaysAppendix B: MSCI’s Physical Risk Assessment Metrics and MethodologyAppendix C: Company Reports Reviewed for Adaptation Plans Are Utilities in Asia Climate-Ready?31 A Framework to Assess Utilities’ Adaptation Plans32Variations in Disclosure Quality and Adaptation Actions35 List of Figures Figure 1. Top hazard exposures by market9Figure 2. Physical climate VaR by 2050 for Asian utility companies across 7 key markets10Figure 3. Overview of selected utility companies across key markets13Figure 4. Breakdown of overall asset types and numbers across 11 utilities (n = 3,528)14Figure 5. Distribution of power generation assets by company used for analysis (n = 2,422)15Figure 6. Geographic distribution of power generation assets for analysis (n = 2,422)16Figure 7. Company-level weighted business interruption AAL19Figure 8. Company-level weighted asset damage AAL20Figure 9. Company-level weighted business interruption AAL, across power plant types21Figure 10. Company-level weighted asset damage AAL, across power plant types22Figure 11. Heat-related business interruption AAL across assets and utilities23Figure 12. Estimated river low flow exposure by 205024Figure 13. Projected days with low river discharge across thermal plants in India25Figure 14. Water-related business interruption AAL across assets and utilities26Figure 15. Estimated 100-yr flood depth across coastal, fluvial, and pluvial flooding27Figure 16. Estimated % AAL changes across coastal, fluvial, and pluvial flooding28Figure 17. Wind-related business interruption AAL