中国消费者烟草产品选择：对调味电子烟禁令的影响（英）

Hua WangYuhan DengDonald S. KenkelAlan D. MathiosSen Zeng Working Paper 35048http://www.nber.org/papers/w35048 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH1050 Massachusetts AvenueCambridge, MA 02138April 2026 This research was supported by a grant to Cornell University from Global Action to End Smoking(formerly known as Foundation for Smoke-Free World), an independent, U.S. nonprofit 501(c)(3)grantmaking organization. Global Action (GA) played no role in designing, implementing, dataanalysis,or interpretation of the research results, nor did GA edit or approve any presentations orpublicationsfrom the study. The contents, selection, and presentation of facts, as well as anyopinions expressed,are the sole responsibility of the authors and should not be regarded asreflecting the positions of GlobalAction. Through September 2023, GA received charitable giftsfrom PMI Global Services Inc. (PMI),which manufactures cigarettes and other tobacco products.To complement the termination of its agreementwith PMI, GA’s Board of Directors established anew policy to not accept or seek any tobacco or non-medicinalnicotine industry funding. The viewsexpressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarilyreflect the views of the NationalBureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not beenpeer-reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompaniesofficialNBER publications. © 2026 by Hua Wang, Yuhan Deng, Donald S. Kenkel, Alan D. Mathios, and Sen Zeng. All rightsreserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicitpermissionprovided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Consumer Tobacco Product Choices in China: The Impact of a Ban on Flavored E-cigarettesHua Wang, Yuhan Deng, Donald S. Kenkel, Alan D. Mathios, and Sen ZengNBER Working Paper No. 35048April 2026JEL No. I12 ABSTRACT A growing body of economic research explores the impacts of U.S. e-cigarette regulations onconsumertobacco choices, but less is known about e-cigarette regulation in China, the world’slargest tobaccomarket. We study China’s ban of flavored e-cigarettes. The ban of all flavors in e-cigarettes other thantobacco was part of a comprehensive package of regulatory policies adoptedin 2022. We collectedstated preference data through two discrete choice experiments conductedin 2021 and 2023, withabout 600 subjects each. All subjects were adult current smokers. In theexperiments, subjects madehypothetical choices between cigarettes, e-cigarettes, and quitting.Product prices and the attributesof e-cigarettes were experimentally varied, allowing us to identifythe impact of flavor availabilityon stated preferences. We use the data to estimate conditional logitmodels and to predict the impactof the flavor ban and other policies. The empirical results suggestthat a ban of flavored e-cigarettesdecreases stated preferences for e-cigarettes but also has theunintended consequence to increase statedpreferences for cigarettes. Despite the predicteddecrease in e-cigarette choices, the predicted choiceshare of flavored e-cigarettes when they areillegal but loosely enforced is 53% of the predicted sharewhen legal. This large illegal share isconsistent with anecdotal evidence and with the evidence fromour 2023 background survey thatflavored e-cigarettes remain popular after the ban although fewervapers reported getting their e-cigarettes from specialty or general retailers. Hua WangCornell Universityhw227@cornell.edu Alan D. MathiosCornell Universityadm5@cornell.edu Yuhan DengCornell Universityyd326@cornell.edu Sen ZengCornell UniversityDepartment of Economicssz626@cornell.edu Donald S. KenkelCornell UniversityBrooks School of Public PolicyDepartment of Economicsand NBERdsk10@cornell.edu 1.Introduction A long line of health economics research explores the impact of tobacco regulations on consumerchoices (DeCicca, Kenkel, and Lovenheim 2022). More recently, this line of research has beenextended to study new products such as e-cigarettes that do not involve the combustion oftobacco. In addition to studying the impact of familiar tobacco control policies such as excisetaxes, studies of the new products also explore new regulations of product attributes such asflavors in e-cigarettes. Much of the research has focused on the U.S. Less is known about theimpact of e-cigarette regulation in the low- and middle-income countries that account for 80% ofglobal tobacco users (WHO, 2025). China is the world’s largest tobacco producer and consumer,with more than 288 million smokers (WHO, 2025). We study China’s ban of flavored e-cigarettes. The ban of all flavors in e-cigarettes other thantobacco was part of a comprehensive package of regulatory policies adopted in 2022. Otherpolicies included the imposition of high excise taxes (47%), the application of cigarette healthwarnings to e-cigarette packaging, promot