亚洲外汇聚焦：人民币——放缓脚步

CurrenciesMainland China Easing off the accelerator ◆There are some minor signs of policymakers recalibrating thespeed of RMB’s appreciation ◆Net FX sales onshore slowed to a four-month low in March,due toportfolio outflows by foreigners and locals (QDII)◆But RMB volumes in CIPS reached a record high in March–we take stock of progress in RMB internationalisation Joey ChewHead of Asia FX ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking CorporationLimited, Singapore Branchjoey.s.chew@hsbc.com.sg+65 6658 5186 Jingyang ChenAsian FX StrategistThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedjingyang.chen@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6558 Paul MackelGlobal Head of FX ResearchTheHongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedpaulmackel@hsbc.com+852 2288 5523 The USD-CNY fixing resumed its downtrend in the first half of April(against a softerUSD backdrop), after movingin asidewaysrange duringMarch. Throughout Marchand the first half of April, daily changes in the USD-CNY fixing exhibited larger two-way volatilitythan before. On average, the beta to USD declines rose to 150% (versus80% in May-November and 120% in December-February) while the beta to USD gainsrose to 90% (versus 30% in May-November and-30% inDecember-February).Thewider and less predictable range of fixing outcomesrecently could be intended toinduce aslightpullback in the market’s long RMB positioning, in our view.The(negative) basis between spot and fixing had gotten very large just before theMiddleEastconflict(750pips), and has recently re-widened again (450pips). Anotherinteresting development in March:theauthoritiesapproved a USD5.3bnincrease in theQDII quota(for residents to invest in foreign assets,outside of theRMB-denominated ‘Connect’ schemes).That was the first increase since June 2025(USD3.1bn).That happened while net FX receipts fell to a 12-month low and overallnet FX sales onshore moderated to a four-month low in March, amid foreigners’equity and bond outflows.Also, werecallthat the PBoC announceda removal of the20% risk reserve requirement on USD-CNY forward purchaseson 27 February.Corporates had doubled their outstanding short USD-CNY forward positionswithinthree monthsto a record high in February. We think the Chinese authorities arerecalibrating the pace of RMB appreciation,rather than slamming the brakes. Some moderation in the speed of appreciation isnot unreasonable, now that theCFETS RMB index has almost fully recoveredfrom its tariff-induced weakness in 1H25. Based on the decline in the USD-CNYfixing in December-February, the RMB’s appreciation versus the USD wasannualising at a rapid 9.4% pace. In March-April-to-date, that slowed down to7%. Even so, that was still beyond the 3.3% pace in May-November 2025. Theannualised negative carry of the RMB versus the USD is roughly 250bp. There is still a fundamental basis for RMB appreciation:corporates are stillconverting a sizeable amount of their foreign currency revenue from trade intoRMB(March: USD60bn sold). Moreover, RMB internationalisation (focusing onpromoting cross-border payments in RMB and international financing in RMB), long-term diversification from USD and economic rebalancing (industrial upgrading,technological self-reliance, more emphasis on domestic demand) are key domesticstructural themes supporting the RMB to be stable with a strong bias.In our view,theRMB is within fair value range, not overvalued, especially considering the competitiveedge from domestic deflation inpreviousyears. Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Singapore Branch Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in theDisclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com 1. The downtrend in the USD-CNY fixingresumed in the first half of April, after abreak in March 2. The CFETS RMBindex has nearlyrecovered from its tariff-induced decline in1H25 FX s:xps’ FX sssps Overall net FX sales onshore fell to a four-month low in March: USD35bn, versus the monthlyaverage of USD80bn in December-February. This was mostly because of financial accountoutflows–foreigners sold Chinese equities and bonds, and there was a USD5.3bnincrease in approved QDII(Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor) funds in March(the first increase since June 2025). ps’FX sssbsUD60b. This islower than the monthly average in the prior three months (USD82bn), but understandable giventhe end of positive “seasonality” (around the Lunar New Year festive season), a moderation inthe trade surplus and a record amount of short USD-CNY forward positions held by corporates(USD107bn). On average,the net FX conversion ratio for December-March was 80%. Compared to FX settlement, cross-border flows showed a more notable deterioration in March.Net FX receipts from abroad fell to a 12-month low of USD11bn, versus the monthly average ofUSD87bn in December-February.Resid