周末消费者观察：补充剂趋势能否为包装食品公司指明创新方向？

Alexia Howard+1 917 344 8453alexia.howard@bernsteinsg.comRichard J. Clarke, FCA+44 20 7676 6850richard.clarke@bernsteinsg.comCallum Elliott, CFA, ACA+44 20 7676 7183callum.elliott@bernsteinsg.comDanilo Gargiulo+1 917 344 8475danilo.gargiulo@bernsteinsg.comJignanshu Gor+91 226 842 1494jignanshu.gor@bernsteinsg.comMelinda Hu+852 2123 2643melinda.hu@bernsteinsg.comZhihan Ma, CFA+1 917 344 8303zhihan.ma@bernsteinsg.comEuan McLeish+81 3 5962 9611euan.mcleish@bernsteinsg.comIan Moore+1 917 344 8434ian.moore@bernsteinsg.comNadine Sarwat, CFA+44 20 7676 6849nadine.sarwat@bernsteinsg.comAneesha Sherman+1 917 344 8457aneesha.sherman@bernsteinsg.comLuca Solca+41 582 723 126luca.solca@bernsteinsg.comTrevor Stirling+44 20 7676 7521trevor.stirling@bernsteinsg.comWilliam Woods+44 20 7676 6806william.woods@bernsteinsg.com Anyhoo, with that personal complaint behind me, it nonethelessappears that with 75% of US consumers now taking some formof supplement3the category is no longer niche. It has becomefoundational to how people think about health. And now, with anestimated >100,000 products4, across formats ranging fromtraditional pills to gummies, drinks, powders, and even patches andinjections, the once simple vitamin aisle has evolved into a broad,fast-moving ecosystem shaped by innovation to complementconsumer health and wellness trends and experimentation. On a recent podcast with Mr. Lex Fridman, Mr. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.,head of the Department of Health and Human Services and pioneerof the Make America Healthy Again movement, commented thathe takes “a ton of vitamins and nutrients,” so many that he “couldn’tremember them all.” This rise in the use of supplements has been going on for manyyears, and was boosted by the pandemic. U.S. consumers seemvery interested in finding ways to address a range of unmet needsthrough their use, ranging from improving sleep quality, to treatingspecific health conditions like hypertension and diabetes, toenhancing mental health and focus, boosting immunity and guthealth and everything in between and beyond. The bigger question is whether this development could becomea beacon for packaged food companies to rebuild their relevancewith U.S. consumers having lost a lot of credibility and trust overthe past 10 -15 years. What if, instead of incorporating a hostof additives (including artificial dyes, preservatives, emulsifiers,texturizers and so on) that consumers are now shunning, thefood companies hopped onto the bandwagon of the supplementindustry and started incorporating ingredients that consumers arefinding out for themselves may help support their health in a varietyof ways? It could finally be that the age of nutraceuticals (a termcoined by Dr. Stephen DeFelice, an American physician and clinicalpharmacologist all the way back in 1989, has finally arrived. Personally I’m still rather flummoxed by the marketing approachused by many of these supplement brands on social media, wherepotential purchasers are subjected to ridiculously lengthy shaggy-dog style tales of danger and woe to explain why the potentiallydodgy concoction being peddled is absolutely crucial for survivalin today’s fast-moving world, only then to be shown an inordinatelylong video by some spokesperson before they even get close tofinding how much the subscription is or getting a link to purchase.One imagines that over time, these lengthy diatribes will bereplaced by something more efficient and preferably fact-based,but I’m not holding my breath. Compared to supplement regulations in other countries, thedifference is night and day. China requires far stricter approvalsof ingredients and claims than are required in the U.S.. The EUdemands scientific substantiation for health claims. As a result, theU.S. has by far the highest per capita spending on supplementscompared to other countries around the world (Exhibit 1). Herein the U.S., manufacturers prioritize speed and scale, placing therisk and responsibility on the consumer to decide what to trust.As result, the number of consumers experiencing adverse eventsranging from allergic reactions to serious complications, wasreported to be 23,000 cases annually back in 20155. HISTORY AND REGULATION (OR LACK THEREOF) Long before supplements were formulated into convenientcapsules, the idea that human health could be shaped through whatwe consume was already deeply embedded in human history. Fromgarlic and honey in Ancient Egypt to ginseng in Chinese medicine,people have long treated food as a legitimate form of medicaltherapy. By the late 19thcentury, “patent medicines” were sold withsweeping promises of treating everything from cancer to colic, butthey had little scientific proof to back up these claims, and oftencontained substances like opium or cocaine, which presumablymade the patient fairly upbeat in their attitude towards suchremedies, but did little to address the underlying ailment ordisorder. EXHIBIT 1:The U.S. has by far the highest per capita spendingon su