经济周刊：债券可以抵御增长冲击，而不是通胀冲击

17 April 2026 Richard de Chazal, CFArdechazal@williamblair.com+44 20 7868 4489 Economics WeeklyBonds Protect Against GrowthShocks, Not Inflation Shocks Louis Mukamalmukama@williamblair.com+1 312 364 8867 William Blair If we went into some very major war, the value ofmoney would go down. … The last thing you’d wantto do is hold money during a war. … You’re going tobe a lot better off owning productive assets … thanpieces of paper. 1. A structurally tighter labor market– The supply oflabor is no longer abundant and is shrinking due to de-mographics and immigration policies (exhibit 1). – Warren Buffett,CNBC2014 For several years now, we have been arguing that theinflation regime has changed, that we are in the midst ofa structural capex upturn, that we are facing increasinggeopolitical shocks, and that these changes have importantimplications for investors and asset allocation. This regimechange signifies that investors should move away from thetraditional 60-40 portfolios and adopt a more diversifiedand active portfolio management policy. Portfolios shouldstill include exposure to bonds but also recognize that inthis new inflation regime equities become an increasinglyimportant diversifier and risk reducer. This is proving par-ticularly salient in today’s stagflation-type environment. 2. Loose fiscal policy– The government continues to runloose fiscal policy, with budget deficits hanging around anunsustainable 6% for as far as the eye can see. In this new regime, equities may still offer a slightlygreater positive correlation to bonds even after thischange, but they also offer important protection againstupside inflation risks—where bonds do the opposite. Thisis particularly important at a time when central banks arefinding that their normal crisis response playbook no lon-ger fits the unfolding scenario.In thisEconomics Weekly,we argue that the stock-to-bond correlation has nowmoved from negative to positive, and we discuss whatthat means for investors. The Inflation Regime Has Changed We believe investors need to acknowledge that 1) theinflation regime has changed, and 2) we are not likelyto return to the pre-COVID disinflationary/deflationaryworld for many years to come. 3. Geopolitical shifts– These include an increase inpopulism, the imposition of tariffs, a breakup of previoustrade agreements, and conflicts (exhibit 3). The previous regime—from approximately 2000 to2019—was defined by a frictionless supply side, with themain downside risks being demand, not supply, whichwas abundant. As a result, there were only disinflationaryor deflationary risks to inflation. In today’s inflation regime, supply-side frictions are onceagain apparent. While this does not mean a return to the1970s or 1980s, it does mean a more-volatile inflationenvironment, with what is likely to be a slightly higherrate of inflation on average (e.g., 2.5%-3.0%). We attribute this shift in the inflation regime to a combi-nation of factors, as listed below. William Blair today’s stagflationary episode, as well as with tariffs, theimpact of immigration restrictions, and Russia’s invasionof Ukraine, the Fed is increasingly being forced to take await-and-see stance. The result is that interest rates needto remain higher for longer. In this environment, the risksaround previously plausible “run-it-hot” type policiesincrease dramatically. 4. Less stable inflationary expectations– Inflationaryexpectations have been more volatile due to a combinationof one-off price shocks, starting with the pandemic, thenthe Russian invasion of Ukraine, immigration restrictions,and tariffs. These are in addition to the odd boat beingstuck in a canal (or hitting a bridge), adverse weather, andnow a commodity price shock due to the war with Iran (ex-hibit 4). While economists see temporary supply shocks,consumers just see persistently higher prices. For investors, the return of a positive stock-to-bond cor-relation reflects this regime shift; it signals a shift frompurely growth-driven shocks to one that also incorpo-rates inflation-driven shocks. And when inflation risksdominate, returns for stocks and bonds become moreconcentrated, with bonds often underperforming equi-ties. In a low-inflation, growth-led environment, bondsdiversify equity risk and provide greater downside pro-tection to growth shocks (exhibit 6). 5. Old capital stock– The capital stock in the U.S. is oldand needs to be renewed. Both efficiency and productivitydeteriorateas infrastructureages, reducing companies’ability to absorb price increases (exhibit 5). Return Protection Is Shock Dependent With the resumption of the positive stock-to-bond corre-lation, investors should no longer rely solely on bonds toprovide all-weather insurance policies for their portfolios.Rather, we think investors should add bonds for yield(as opposed to purely portfolio insurance) and protec-tion against downside growth risks. In addition, portfoliosshould increasingly include greater divers