中东：对中国来说是成本冲击，而不是（目前）供应冲击

Middle East: a cost shock, not (yet) a supply shock, for China Paris, 7 May 2026–Better equipped than its competitors to deal with energy shocks,China is currently limiting supply disruptions linked to tensions in the Middle East. Keytakeaways:•35%of oil flows passing through the Strait of Hormuz are destined for China •+0.5%: first annual rise in producer prices in 41 months Why China is weathering the storm better than its Asian rivals Unlike many Asian countries heavily reliant on hydrocarbon imports, China hasseveralbuffersagainst a prolonged crisis in the Middle East. Its energy mix remains largely Added to this are substantial storage capacities: in the event of temporary disruption,strategic oil reserves can cover nearly100 daysof net imports. As a result, despite theimportance of the Strait of Hormuz—through which35%of oil flows to China pass—the Producer prices rise for the first time in three years Whilst flows continue, their cost is rising. The rise in energy and chemical prices has begunto spread throughout the Chinese economy. In March, producer prices rose by0.5%year- Forthe time being,this rising expense is largely being absorbed by the mid-and-downstream sectors, against a backdrop of still fragile final demand. Consumer prices Margins under pressure: SMEs on the front line The persistent rise in input costs is nevertheless beginning to erode corporate profitability.Several sectors—textiles, chemicals, and synthetic fibersarealreadyreducing their SMEs appear particularly vulnerable, as theyhave weaker bargain power topass on costincreases.Conversely,large conglomerates benefit from long-term supply contracts, A delicate balance between substitution and global slowdown Paradoxically,the crisis could strengthen China’s industrial position vis-à-vis Asiancompetitors who are more exposed to energy shocksas ASEAN countries and India. It is But the risk lies elsewhere: a prolonged conflict, leading to a sustained surge in energyprices, could weigh heavily on global growth. A doubling of energy pricescompared to pre- Junyu Tan, an economist for North Asia, notes“China is currently managing to avoid amajor supply shock thanks to its energy mix and industrial ecosystem. But the sustainedrise in costs is creating a new vulnerability: that of margins, particularly for the most COFACE PRESS OFFICEAdrien Billet: +33 6 59 46 59 15 AliceBastard:+33 7 72 10 95 14Lucie Bolelli: +33 6 42 18 30 82coface@havas.com adrien.billet@coface.com COFACE: FOR TRADE As a global leading player in trade credit risk management for80years, Coface helps companies grow Whatever their size, location or sector, Coface provides 100,000 clients across some 200 markets. with afull range of solutions: Trade Credit Insurance, Business Information, Debt Collection, Single Riskinsurance, Surety Bonds, Factoring. Every day, Coface leverages its unique expertise and cutting-edge