台积电2026年第一季度：“客户即伙伴”

TSMC 1Q26: “Customer is our partners” TSMC doesn’t change prices dramatically as “customer is our partners”.Investorsquestioned whether TSMC’s profitability (i.e. prices) fully reflected TSMC’s true value. TSMCreplied that customer has to be successful is the number-one consideration and TSMCwill grow together. Some peers may earn much higher margins in the short run, but thisphilosophy sets TSMC apart and is why TSMC earns trust from customers and is a long-term winner. Mark Li+852 2123 2645mark.li@bernsteinsg.com Yipin Cai, CFA+852 2123 2669yipin.cai@bernsteinsg.com Revenue & margins came in above expectations.2Q26 revenue (in US$) guided up10% QoQ is near the seasonality high-end and is ahead of consensus. The beat on gross& operating margin 1Q26 result and2Q26 guide is even stronger. TSMC also revisedup its 2026 full-year revenue (in US$) growth from close to 30% to over 30% YoY, asmemory price makes smartphone demand softer but the demand “step-up” as AI shiftsfrom generative to argentic can offset that and more. 2026 capex was revised to toward to the high-end of the range.The range given 3months ago is US$52-56B & TSMC updated it today to “toward the high end” of it. Despitesome expectation, TSMC didn’t give specifics for 3-year capex and reiterated the totalcapex of 2026-2028 significantly higher than that of 2023-2025. The guide of salesgrowing faster than capex, hence capex/sales ratio not surging in the next few years is alsounchanged from 3 months ago. Mature-node capacity is sufficient to support existing customers.TSMC is windingdown Fab 2 & 5 but after that still has sufficient capacity to support mature-nodecustomers. The stock prices of UMC & Vanguard have been rising as the thesis of demandspilled over from TSMC and this statement can be a disappointment. CPU for agentic work is not part of AI revenue guidance.With the difficulty of tracingwhere CPU eventually gets used, TSMC reaffirmed its AI revenue does not include CPUused for AI. We agree agentic AI may result in a demand “step-up” and are mindful ofcapacity constraint, but see CPU a possible upside to TSMC. A14 volume production in 2028 may be slightly slower than expectation.Comparedto N2 starting volume production in 4Q25, this implies 2-3 year cadence and doesn’t signalAI resulting in a rapid node transition that some expected. No near-term disruption in sight from the Middle East crisis.TSMC sources chemicals& gases from multiple suppliers in different regions and has prepared safety stock on hand.For energy, Taiwan government has secured LNG through at least May and TSMC thus doesnot see near-term disruption either. Overall we turned even more positive on TSMC.We saw improving economy on AI enduses, particularly with agentic works, and TSMC’s comment today supports that. Marginsare also above expectation. We see a meaningful upside risk to our projection and maintainOutperform. EXHIBIT 4:1Q26 gross margin improved 3.9pts QoQthanks to cost reduction, higher utilization, & morefavorable FX. EXHIBIT 5:TSMC narrowed 2026 full-year capex guidanceto toward the high end of US$52-56B, as the company isstepping up to address the supply constraint. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS TSMC: We rate TSMC OutperformOutperform with price target of NT$2,200.00. MediaTek: We rate MediaTek Outperform with price target at NT$2,250.00. UMC: We rate UMC Underperform with price target at NT$47.00. Vanguard: We rate Vanguard Market-Perform with price target at NT$94.00. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd We set a NT$2,200 1-year target price using a P/E multiple of 20x against our forward Q5-Q8 EPS estimate of NT$110. Wederive our PT for secondary ticker (TSM.US) by dividing the primary PT by FX and arrive at US$351. MediaTek Inc We set a NT$2,250 1-year price target using a P/E multiple of 17x against our forward Q5-Q8 EPS estimate of NT$132. United Microelectronics Corp We set a NT