英特尔、AMD：追云逐月？2026年第一季度前瞻

Intel, AMD: Chase the wind and touch the sky? Q126 preview Intel reports Q126 results on Thursday, April 23rd(call at 5:00pm ET; register here). Stacy A. Rasgon, Ph.D.+1 213 559 5917stacy.rasgon@bernsteinsg.com AMD reports Q126 results on Tuesday, May 5th(conference call at 5:00pm ET; dial-in1-877-407-8037 or 201-689-8037, passcode 13755752). Alrick Shaw+1 917 344 8454alrick.shaw@bernsteinsg.com For Intel, we once again up our server assumptions (Xeon now +36% YoY in 2026 w/strong DD ASP increase) and raise GM estimates, and lower NCI given the Ireland fabrepurchase, but also drop our PC assumptions. Overall we are below consensus on clientand above on DC with higher GMs; our revenue forecasts are below consensus on thoseweaker PCs but we model EPS above. We now model Q126 at $12.3B/$0.02, up from$12.2B/$0.00 prior vs consensus $12.3B/$0.00. For Q226 we now model $12.7B/$0.15vs $12.7B/$0.06 prior (higher GM) vs consensus $13.1B/$0.09. For full-year 2026 wenow model $53.3B/$0.82 vs consensus $54.2B/$0.55; for next year (2027) we nowmodel $57.5B/$1.33, up from $56.6B/$0.73 prior vs consensus $58.4B/$1.04. Arpad von Nemes+1 917 344 8461arpad.vonnemes@bernsteinsg.com This is likely to be a messy quarter for Intel, but on balance we are feeling somewhatmore positive as the agentic server CPU surge increasingly seems real.We cautionon client outlook though in the wake of memory prices (Street estimates here feel too highto us) but the potential for server upside (and GM from ASPs?) feels like it could help offset.And of course the broader narrative (while a bit hyped-up in our opinion) is going their way.That being said, these dynamics are not a secret and the stock has absolutely ripped; wecontinue to struggle with both fundamentals and valuation especially after the recent run.PT to $60 on higher estimates and multiple (mostly on vibes...); MP. For AMD,we similarly adjust estimates to incorporate better server / weaker PCassumptions (now with EPYC sales up ~50% YoY in 2026), and add in the new Meta AI deal(which consensus does not appear to be fully incorporating). Similar to Intel we appearbelow consensus on PCs. We now model AMD’s Q126 at $9.9B/$1.27, up from $9.8B/$1.25 prior, and inline to a touch above consensus at $9.8B/$1.27. For Q226 we nowmodel $10.1B/$1.38 vs $10.0B/$1.33 prior, below consensus at $10.5/$1.42 (lowerPCs). For 2026 we now model $45.8B/$6.48, up from $44.2B/$6.12 prior, and belowconsensus at $47.0/$6.74 with $14.2B AI revenues (up ~$1B vs prior). For next year(2027) however we now model $76.7B/$13.23, up from $56.7B/$9.25 prior on Metaaddition and server increases, well above consensus at $67.5B/$11.02 with $43B AIrevenues (+$16B vs $27B prior due to Meta). We are warming to AMD as well as they benefit from server CPU strength;we alsonote that consensus is not yet fully modeling in the Meta win suggesting 2027 numbersare likely too low, though we caution that (similar to Intel) Street PC numbers look high tous (impacting our outlook for 2026). On the positive, AMD has been better at anticipatingand capitalizing on the current server surge and have been successful in signing new Heliospartners. On the other hand, Street estimates already appear to model server sales for thecompany up ~50% YoY, it remains to be seen if the Helios ramp will really be as smooth ashoped, and (of course) they have yet to prove they can sign large AI deals without givingaway chunks of the company in return. But dynamics (outside of PC) seem supportive andthe stock is less expensive than it was. PT to $265 on higher ests / lower multiple; MP. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS INTC (MP, $60): Intel's problems have broken through to the forefront, though server strength may help to offset otherweakness for now, and narrative/headlines may fuel the vibe. AMD (MP, $265): AI expectations remain high, but server strength may help, and the new Meta deal seems supportive to FY27numbers. DETAILS For the most recent version of our INTC model please click here:INTC. For the most recent version of our AMD model please click here:AMD. PC shipments rose LSD (+3%/+4% per IDC/Gartner) YoY in Q1, decelerating somewhat vs the LDD YoY increaseseen last quarter. Shipments fell low teens QoQ (-15%/-13% per IDC/Gartner), roughly inline with typical pre-COVIDseasonality (and a bit worse vs post-COVID) with overall shipments a bit better than typical historical Q4 levels.Taiwanese ODM notebook shipments were down ~25% QoQ in Jan-Feb vs Oct-Nov (2 month, March not available yet),roughly inline with pre-COVID seasonality, and fell ~11% YoY. •IDC and Gartner reported total 1Q PC shipments (desktop + notebook) down LDD sequentially at -15%/-13% (IDC/Gartner)and remained fairly strong on an absolute basis, roughly inline with pre-COVID seasonality (though a bit below post-COVID).Shipments increased LSD +3%/+4% YoY (IDC/Gartner), down somewhat versus the LDD YoY increase seen last quarter(Exhibit 1-Exhibit 5),