聚焦“做好自己的事”

EconomicsChina Focus on“doing o’sown thingwell” ◆Amid external risks, policy focusison“doing one’sown thingwell”; more mitigation measuresto blunt Middle East impact Erin XinSenior Economist, Greater ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitederin.y.xin@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6975 ◆The anti-involutioncampaignacceleratesthrough qualitychecks, standard setting, and price regulation Taylor WangEconomist, ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedtaylor.t.l.wang@hsbc.com.hk+852 2288 8650 ◆Opening-up goals are helped bydeeperglobal relations withleaders’visitstoChina Jing LiuChief Economist, Greater ChinaThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedjing.econ.liu@hsbc.com.hk+852 3941 0063 Amid external risks, policyfocusisstill on“doing’sown thingwell” While the disruptions from the Middle East conflictcontinue, Chinais expected tostilltake mitigating actionsto preserve supply.Starting in May, China is reported to banexports of sulfuric acid, a key component used in the metals and fertiliser industries(Bloomberg, 11 April). This follows earlier bansof refined oiland fertiliser-relatedexportsimplemented since March(Reuters, 11Marchand19March).Othermeasures have included issuing regulationsonindustrial and supplychain securityandpromotingmajor energy projects(China Macro Tracker, 9 April). Heidi LiAssociateGuangzhou Nonetheless, despite the volatility, there iscontinued emphasison “doing one’s ownthing well”(ie, concentrating on domestic affairs).In ourview, China’s economyretains relative resilience, and macro policy is likely to place greater emphasis onusing domestic drivers to offset external disruptions.The next key milestone is thelate-April Politburo meeting. On 10 April, Premier Li Qiang chaired a symposium with economic experts andentrepreneurs, sending a positive signal that the economy made a solid start inQ1and showed resilience despite external volatility (Xinhua). The meeting highlighted threepolicypriorities: 1)upgrading and expanding servicessectorin support of employment and confidence; 2)accelerating“AI+”and the digitaland intelligent transitionof manufacturing to lift productivity and cultivate new growthengines; and3)stepping up efforts to boost jobs and incomes, including an urbanand rural income growth plan to support a recovery inconsumption.Thesealign withthe annual and longer-term policy targets highlighted in the NPC. Nonetheless, private sector confidence stillneeds a lift, as evidenced by weak longer-term corporate credit (seeChina money supply, 13 April). In the nearterm, some liftcan come fromproactive fiscal policy,which can helpsupportinvestments, especiallyvia infrastructure investment.Local government special bond issuance has been front-loaded, withcRMB1trnused for project construction in Q1 (upRMB145bncomparedwithQ12025), continuing to underpin investment in areas such as industrial parks andtransport.For ultra-long-datedspecial treasury bonds, a secondbatchof RMB62.5bnhasrecentlybeen allocatedforconsumer goodstrade-ins(Xinhua, 10 April). Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Anti-involution: quality check, standard setting,and pricing regulation China’s latest anti-involution policy moves suggest that concrete, operationalguidance attheministry level is being accelerated, while the internet platforms and the batteryindustries are stillbeing targeted(see Table 1). Regulatorswillfollow through with more targeted actions on individual sectors,including:forinternet platforms,standardisingsubsidy programmes and prohibitingthem from forcingmerchants into promotions (8 April);forbattery firms,implementingcapacity earlywarnings,regulatingpricecompetition, shorteningsupplier payment terms, strengtheningqualitysupervision,andproviding standardized guidance for local investment activities(9 April). These targeted actions align with the top-level messaging from the NPC and 15th FYP thatbuilding a unified national market remains a top priority. While targeted for certain industries,these could be expanded more broadly. Quality checks, regulations ofpricing practices,andstandard setting (government procurement, market access, subsidies, IP protection,etc) willlikely be intensified, with the NDRC, SAMR, and MIIT likely to lead the effort, in our view. Some positive resultshave beenseen since the anti-involution campaign was officially launchedin July last year. In particular, March PPI data showed that PV equipment and lithium-ion batterymanufacturing prices rose 5.2% and 2.5% y-o-y, compared to-10.9% and-4.8% y-o-y in June2025, respectively(seeChina inflation, 10 April). Meanwhile, the impact oftherecent Middle East conflict remains a key watchpointgiventhei