中国材料：2026年二季度行业指南

EquitiesMetals and Mining Structure intact, but macro noise takes the wheel China ◆Aluminium remains most preferred;copper and gold positivebut near-term macro pressure;lithium momentum intact Howard Lau*, CFAAnalyst, China MaterialsThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedhoward.h.b.lau@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6625 ◆We move paper to neutral; steel, cement and glass remainweak with policy the key swing factor Chris Chan*Associate, China MaterialsThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedchris.t.n.chan@hsbc.com.hk+852 2284 1078 ◆We like Hongqiao and Chalco, Zijin mining and Zijin Gold,CMOC and CNM and Ganfeng Yaya Huang*AssociateGuangzhou Aluminium (most preferred):Aluminium continues to offer the strongestfundamentals within China materials.Capacity ceiling keeps domestic supply tight,while overseas markets are increasingly constrainedasMiddle East tensions haveadded a new layer of supply risk.Near-term domestic inventory build may capupside, but downside is limited given widening LME–SHFE spread (>RMB3,000/t)that could drive exports. Over the medium term,constrained global supply, risingenergy costs and geopolitical risks should continue to support both physical andpricing premiums(seeMetals Quarterly Q2 2026, 13April 2026).We continue tofavour Hongqiao on yield and Chalco-H/A’s overseasambitions. Copper(positive but near-term macro pressure):Copper prices remain resilient(>USD12,000/t), supported by tight micro fundamentals,such asinventorydrawdown, negative TC/RCs and ongoing supply disruptions (e.g. Kamoa guidancecuts). However, macro headwindsare weighing on near-term sentiment and drivingvolatility. While the market may focus on demand uncertainty in the short term, webelieve structural drivers remain intact, including supply constraints, declining oregrades and demand electrification and AI-related consumption. Additional risks suchas sulphur shortages for African smeltersand further mine disruptions could tightenbalances further. As macro concerns stabilise, the market is likely to refocus ontightening fundamentals. We prefer Zijin-H/A, and also like CMOC andCNM. Gold(positive but near-term macro pressure):Gold prices remain elevated butvolatile, with near-term pressure from USD liquidity tightening, position unwinds andintermittent selling to stabilise currencies. However, structural support remains intact,driven by central bank reserve diversificationin the longer term. While gold equities maytake time to bottom given limited near-term catalysts, we view recent pullbacks asattractiveadditionalopportunities.WelikeZijin Gold for its earnings growth visibility. Lithium (positive, but much priced in):Lithium fundamentals have improved since2H25, supported by supply disruptions and strong ESS-driven demand. In the nearterm, prices should remain firmataround RMB150k/t, supported by low inventoriesand solid downstream productionschedules. However, the market remains highlysensitive to policy changes and marginal shifts in supply-demand balance, and muchof the recovery is already reflected inshare price. WelikeGanfeng for its execution,cost advantages and rising self-sufficiency(seeChina Lithium: Tighteningfundamentals, but much priced in, 14 April 2026). HSBC Global Investment Summit 14 to 16 April 2026 Find out more Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part ofit. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Aluminium (most preferred) Among China materials, aluminium continues to offer the strongest fundamentals. In March,China’s average aluminium price reached RMB24,350/t (+4% m-o-m, +cRMB1,000/t), withindustry profitability remaining exceptionally strong. Smelting margins exceeded RMB8,000/t byend-March, supporting full capacity utilisation, with operating rates already at the policy cap of45mt. On the demand side, downstream restarts were delayed due to the later Chinese NewYear in 2026 (mid-February vs. late January in 2025). Combined with historically high operatinglevels and limited room for supply adjustment, this has led to continued inventory builds intoearly April. In contrast, LME aluminium inventories remain at c476kt, near historically low levels. Thisreflects: (1) ongoing disruption risks around the Strait of Hormuz, which continue to impactglobal aluminium supply chains; and (2) persistent trade frictions (e.g. US tariffs), which keepcross-border logistics costs elevated. In addition, supply risks in the Middle East (e.g. EmiratesGlobal Aluminium and Aluminium Bahrain) remain a key overhang for global supply. For 2Q26, elevated domestic inventories are likely to cap near-term upside in SHFE aluminiumprices, which we expect to trade in the RMB24,000–25,000/t range. That said, downside riskappears limited. Firm LME pricing provid