基本面趋紧，但大部分已被定价

Metals & Mining markets, driving prices higher near term+Ganfeng outperformson integrationand execution;Tiangi Analyst, China MaterialsThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedhoward.h.b.lau@hsbc.com.hk+85229966625Chris Chan more leveraged to lithium prices Associate,China Materials ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedchris.t.n.chan@hsbc.com.hk+85222841078Yaya Huang* We raise target prices on improved outlook but maintain BuyonGanfeng-H/AandHoldonTiangi-H/A AssociateGuangzhou supported by both supply constraints and solid end-use demand.Zimbabwe's exportrestrictions are expected to reduce global supply by c40kt LCE in 2026, and whilemine restarts may bring incremental supply, they are unlikely to fully offset thisshortfall. At the same time, demand remains robust, mainly driven by rapid growth inenergy storage systems (EsS),with lithium demand forecast to grow 19% y-o-y in2026 and at a 13% CAGR through 2030.This combination has driven a sharprebound in lithium prices from trough levels. However, risks remain on both sides:supply could normalise if Zimbabwe resumes exports more fully, while EV demandvisibility remains somewhat uncertain.Reflecting the tighter near-term balance, wehave revised our 2026-27 lithium prices higher (Metals quarterly 13April 2026). not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Ganfeng-H/A (Buy): Ganfeng delivered a return to profitability in 2025, with a strong2H turnaround supported by higher lithium prices and operational leverage. Lookingahead,weexpectearningstoimprovefurtherin2026,drivenbyhigherlithiumchemicals output (c230kt),upstream ramp-up(Goulaminaand Cauchari-Olaroz),andrising self-sufficiency (>60%), supporting a structural cost reduction. Continuedexpansion in batteries and EsS should enhance profitability through scale.Withlithiumpricesrecoveringandcostsstructurallyimproving,Ganfengiswellpositionedto deliver earnings growth with additional upside leverage to further price strength. Tianqi-H/A (Hold): Earnings recovery under way, but upside more balanced: Tianqialso returned to profitability in 2025, supported bymargin recovery,operatingleverage,and strongerequity incomefromSQM.Weexpectfurtherearningsimprovement in 2026, drivenby stronger lithium pricesand volumegrowthfromGreenbushes CGP3 and refining capacity expansion.However,we believe muchofthe near-term recovery is already reflected in expectations,while execution risks andearnings volatility linked to lithium prices and sQM remain. As such, risk-rewardappears more balanced at current levels. assumptions and improved earnings outlook. Our Buy on Ganfeng-H/A and Hold onTianqi-H/A have delivered strong YTD performance with Ganfeng-H +52% YTD;Tianqi-H broadly flat vs. HSCEI -3%. However, we believe much of the near-termrecovery is priced in and therefore we maintain our Hold rating on Tianqi-H/A.Wemaintain our Buy rating on Ganfeng-H/Adue to its strongerdownstream presence. HSBC Global Investment Summit 14 to 16 April 2026 Find out more Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBC Global InvestmentResearch at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Q:What's our view onS-D in2026 Supply: Our base case assumes global lithium supply growth of c20% y-0-y in 2026. We factor in mine restarts in 2H26, with additional upside from a potential restart of Bald Hill in Australia,although this is not yet included in our base case. However, incremental supply from restarts isinsufficient to offset lower shipments from Zimbabwe. subsequently revised in April to allow exports under a quota system tied to commitments tobuild domestic lithium sulphatecapacity.Zimbabwe accountedfor c8%of global lithium supplyin2025.While we assume exports resume for the remainder of 2026, we expect a morestringent quota regime going forward. With c110-120kt LCE of processing capacity underestimatesbyc40ktin2026andc68ktin2027 Given shipping and processing lead times, the impact of export resumption is likelyto be feltconstraints, which could hinder supply growth. Demand: EV and ESS remain the key drivers of lithium demand.Post-CNY restocking hasupcoming reduction in export VAT rebates. Downstream battery manufacturers are raisingproduction guidance; for example,CATL has increased its2026 output target byc30%. We estimate EV battery demand to reach c1,332GWh/1,482GWh in 2026/27e, despite subsidyreductions, while ESS demand is expected to growrapidly to 430GWh/542GWh.LCEdemandfrom Ess is forecast to increase c29% y-o-y in 2026, with its share of total demand rising from19% in 2025 to c22% in 2026, supporting overall lithium demand growth of c19% y-0-y. Policy &near-term trends:Recent Chinese policies (State Council Doc 4 and NDRC Price Doc114)position energystorage asan independent mark