食品通胀、成本与利润率核心发现研究报告(第一部分)

Main findings on foodinflation, costs and margins In this report – Part 1 What is really driving food inflation – and what does this mean forprofitability, investment and resilience across the UK food system? In this report: This Viewpoint examines where the foodpound goes, based on nine everyday foodproducts, and why recent food inflation hasbeen predominantly cost-driven rather thanmargin-driven. Produced in partnership withOxford Economics, it explores the pressuresfacing farmers, processors and retailers, andthe extent to which businesses have beenable or unable to absorb rising costs*. It draws on IGD’s industry expertise,multiple data sources and expert interviews You will gain: •A clear, evidence-based view of whatis driving food inflation in the UK.•Insight into profitability and margin pressureacross farmers, processors and supermarkets.•An understanding of how much cost thefood system has absorbed, and wherepressures are now becoming unsustainable.•Practical implications for investment,resilience and decision-making acrossthe food supply chain. This report is published in two parts: Part 1sets out themain findings, placingrecent food inflation in its wider economicand policy context. It examines the role ofgovernment policy, market forces andstructural competition, and challengesthe assumption that rising food pricesnecessarily reflect rising profits. Our experts continue to monitor costpressures, government policy and globaldevelopments closely, keeping youinformed as conditions evolve. For a more detailed view of the costs, marginsand profitability across the food supply chain,read ‘Where does your food pound go? Part 2’ Part 2provides a detailedproduct-levelanalysisview of costs, margins andprofitability across the food supply chainfor a sample of nine everyday food products,between January 2020 and January 2025. Our key findings UK food pricesare relatively low Profit marginsand investmenthave fallen Policy is asignificant driverof food inflation Staple food costsare being subsidised Food prices are notthe key driver of thecost-of-living crisis •Profit margins are lowacross the supply chain,and have fallen in recentyears, as businesses havesought to absorb costpressures and win in ahighly competitive market.**•Capital investment has fallenin recent years, making thesystem more vulnerable. •30-40% of current foodinflation is driven bygovernment policy. Theremainder is market forces.** •UK food prices haveremained below the EUaverage since 2016. •Profit margins on staplesare low, and in somecases negative.* •Food prices have risensignificantly, above allitems inflation. •Out of 183 countriesanalysed, the UK is thecheapest for a ‘healthy’basket of foods •Profits are generated fromprocessing, premiumisation,brand equity and in somecases through otherbusiness activity. •However, energy andhousing costs have risenmuch more significantly, andwages have not kept pace. Key findings A new IGD study of nine everydayfood products shows profit marginson basic food are extremely thin. •Costing £20.24*, the entire chain – farmers,processors and supermarkets – generatedjust 29 pence of profit(or 1.5%)** •Farmers: Margins widened mostly due toexceptionallyhigh beef prices linked tocattle shortages, rising from 2.9% in 2020to around 4.2% on average, though thiswould fall to 0.6% without beef and just0.4% without subsidies. •Processors / intermediaries: Marginsfell sharply, from 3.1% in 2020 to 1.9% in2025, squeezed by higher labour, energyand input costs. •Supermarkets: Margins on the nine itemscombined fell from 2.1% in 2020 to –0.2%in 2025, with several staple items (e.g.beef mince, chicken breast) sold at orbelow cost as part of value-signalling, withmargins recovered elsewhere. © IGD 2026•Taken together, the evidence shows thatfood inflation is overwhelminglycost-driven, reflecting higher input, labourand regulatory costs, not profit-taking. Our viewpoint Understanding profitability, avoiding misdiagnosis of foodinflation drivers, and enabling investment are critical. Targeted policy interventionswill be key, both to protect ourfood system and to driveinvestment in its future. A futurewhere the food system could beour most important strategicasset – maximising ouropportunity to produce foodcompetitively in a rapidlychanging global climate. The myth shaping inflation debate With 30–40% of current food inflationdriven by government policy costs, and theremainder by global market forces, mistakingthin margins for profiteering risks, increasingfinancial pressure for businesses. These pressures reduce businesses’ability to absorb shocks, invest in resilience,and maintain the supply security thatconsumers and policymakers expect. Persistently high food prices continue to fuelpublic debate about profiteering, based onthe assumption that higher prices must meanhigher profits for food businesses. This hasbecome a powerful myth, driven by mediacommentary, political discourse, a