欧洲旅游委员会（ETC）：2025年第1期长途旅行晴雨表（英文原版+译版）（22页）.pdf_三个皮匠报告

Contents MethodologyPage 03 Outlook for 2025 | January-DecemberPages 04-15 Outlook for early 2025| January-AprilPages 16-21 Methodology Analysed samples Target January-December 2025 (12 months horizon): Potential travellers from Australia,Brazil, Canada, China, Japan, SouthKorea (new market) and the US. •Total respondents:7,087•Respondents likely to travel to Europe:3,273Australia (523), Brazil (593), Canada (485), China (765), Japan(217), St. Korea (313), US (377)•Respondents likely to travel long-haul but not to Europe:1,305•Respondents not planning to travel long-haul:2,509Australia(245), Brazil (266), Canada (308), China (204), Japan(658), St Korea (350), US (478). Method •1,000 online interviews with nationalrepresentatives (18-70 years old), permarket, per wave.•Data collection: 2-18 December 2024 Significantchanges January-April 2025 (4 months horizon): •Total respondents:7,087•Respondents likely to travel to Europe:2,105Australia (290), Brazil (393), Canada (230), China (721), Japan(104), St. Korea (182), US (185 Thesignificant year-on-year changesare presented inpercentage points, marked with the following symbols Increase Decrease Outlook for2025 Travel horizon:January-December 2025 Mixed outlook for Europe's appeal in key overseasmarketst •Amongtravellersinkeylong-haulmarkets,63%plantotakealong-haultripinthenexttwelvemonths-adropfromlastyear’s65%.Europe,inparticular,isseeinganoticeabledeclineininterest,with44%ofrespondentsintendingtovisittheregionin2025,downfrom49%in2024. •Chinesetravellersshowthestrongesttravelintention,with61%planningatriptoEuropein2025,up4percentagepointsfrom2024,thoughnotstatisticallysignificant.WhiletravelsentimentinChinacontinuestoimprove,itremainsunderpre-pandemiclevels. •BraziliansandAustraliansfollow,with57%and54%ofrespondents,respectively,intendingtovisitEuropeinthecomingyear.However,bothmarketshaveseenasharpdeclineintravelintentcomparedtolastyear,whenfiguresstoodat64%forBraziland59%forAustralia. •InCanada,48%ofrespondentsplantovisitEurope,aslightdecreasefromthepreviousyear.RisingtravelcostsremaintheprimaryfactorhamperingmostCanadians'travelplans. Intentions for long-haul travel Annual evolution(arrows indicate the significant YoY percentage point changes) Mixed outlook for Europe's appeal in key overseasmarketst Continuation •Meanwhile,travelintentionsamongUS(37%)andSouthKorean(32%)citizenshavedroppedsignificantly.TheshareofUStravellersplanningaEuropeantriphasfallenby8percentagepoints(from45%),markingthelowestlevelrecordedsince2021.Thisdeclinealignswiththesharp8.1pointsdropintheConsumerConfidenceIndex®seeninDecember2024.Whilehightravelcostsremainakeydeterrent,manyUSrespondentsalsociteapreferencefordomestictravelasanothermajorreason.SouthKoreahasseenanevensteeperdecline,withEuropeantravelintentionsdroppingby13percentagepointsfromlastyear’s45%.Travelconfidenceinthismarkethasalsoreacheditslowestlevelinovertwoyearsamidgrowingpoliticaluncertainty.Consumerspendingwithinthismarketisdown,withtravelamongthehardest-hitcategories. •InJapan,theoutboundtravelrecoveryremainsslow,mainlyduetotheweakyenandrisingtravelcosts,andwhileagradualreboundisexpected,progressremainssluggish.Japaneserespondentsremainthemosthesitantaboutlong-haultravel,withonly21%planningatriptoEuropein2025–similartolastyear. Intentions for long-haul travel Annual evolution(arrows indicate the significant YoY percentage point changes) What’s holding travellers back? •46%ofallrespondentswhodonotplanoverseastripsin2025citedthehighcostsastheprimarydeterrent.Younger(18–34)andmiddle-aged(35–49)travellersaretheonesmostdiscouragedbythefinancialdemandsoflong-haultravel. •Market-wise,Chinapresentsadifferentpicturefromothermarkets.Limitedholidaytimeisthedominantbarrier,citedby50%ofrespondentsthere.Hightravelcostsfollow,whiletheadministrativeburdenoflong-haultravel,althoughcitedbyjust8%,remainsthethirdmostnotableobstacleinthismarket.IntheUS,Japan,andAustralia,thepreferencefordomestictravelisthesecondmostsignificantbarriertotravellingabroad(afterprices),with21%,20%,and19%ofrespondents,respectively,optingtostayclosertohome. •Almosthalf(46%)ofrespondentswhoareopentointernationaltravelbutnottoEuropeindicatedhighcostsasthemaindeterrent,somewhatconfirmingtheperceptionofEuropeasanexpensivedestination.Additionally,17%sharedaninterestinotherregions,while15%citedthetimeconstraints.Concernsovergeopoliticalinstabilityappeartohavealesserimpactontraveldecisionsthaninthepastyears-just5%ofrespondentsidentifiedRussia’swarwithUkraineasabarriertovisitingEurope-thoseaged50+showedgreaterconcernaboutthewar’simpactonsafetythantheyoungeragegroups. Younger travellers show thehighest intention to visitEurope in 2025 When and where to expect them? •Comparedtootheragegroups,youngertravellers(under35yearsold)arelessdecisiveabouttheirpreferredtimeoftraveltoEurope.Nearlyequal shares of the younger respondents prefer to travelduringshouldermonths(52%)andthepeaktravelmonths(48%). •Additionally,younger respondents expre