4Q25回顾：2026年“重启”之年

U.S. Specialty Retail, Apparel & Footwear17 March 2026 lululemon athletica inc. 4Q25 Review: 2026 the "Reset"Year 4Q25 results beat consensus on sales, GM, and matched onOpEx, driving EPS of $5.01 vs. Street at $4.78. Guidance forFY26 calls for ongoing Americas pressure, with 2026 to serveas the region's "reset" year. Management expects thepressure will be partiallyoffsetby still-strong China growth. 2026 is the "Reset" Year.We believe 2026 will be LULU's "reset" year, with outsized pressurefrom market share loss in the Americas and ongoing margin headwinds. While we view theFY1Q26 guidance as conservative, likely setting up for another margin beat in 1Q26, we continueto believe LULU's issues stem from a number of more structural headwinds that will impact2026 and take time to fix, preventing us from becoming more constructive on LULU shares.These headwinds include: 1) ongoingtariffimpacts; 2) use of promotions to clean up olderstyles as they infuse 35% newness as a percent of sales starting spring 2026; 3)trafficpressureas LULU pulls back on promos from the past several quarters; 4) higher spending onfoundational investments which are needed to support the growth turnaround; and 5) Market Cap (USD mn)18411Shares Outstanding (mn)115.60Free Float (%)94.2252 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn)3.7Dividend Yield (%)N/AReturn on Equity TTM (%)41.02Current BVPS (USD)38.18Source: Bloomberg TariffExposure Update.4Q25 GM decreased 550bps, driven primarily by a 520bps gross impactfromtariffs.However, we note thetariffimpact was better than management expected. ForFY25, grosstariffcosts totaled $275mn, with the company able tooffset$62mn via mitigationefforts.For FY26, guidance assumes ~$380mn in grosstariffimpacts, reflecting a 90bps negative U.S. Specialty Retail, Apparel &FootwearAdrienne Yih+1 212 526 5257adrienne.yih@barclays.com Quarter in review.4Q25 EPS of $5.01 beat consensus of $4.78. The EPS beat included a $0.15tax benefit, but was also driven by a sales beat and slightly better GM. GM of 54.9% slightly beatconsensus of 54.8%, driven by a lower than anticipatedtariffimpact and better regional mix,although still down -550bps y/y. SG&A rate of 32.6% matched consensus, although deleveraging100bps y/y driven by a FX headwind, fixed cost deleverage, and ongoing investments to grow Angus Kelleher+1 212 526 0081angus.kelleherferguson@barclays.com Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this Michael Vu+1 212 526 9568michael.vu@barclays.com World increased +5%, while NA declined -2%. FY26 guidance was provided, seeing EPS in therange of $12.10 to $12.30 (vs. consensus $12.59). This guidance incorporates: net sales of$11.35bn to $11.50bn (vs. consensus $11.50bn); GM to decline -120bps y/y, or implied 55.4% (vs.consensus 55.1%); OM to decline -250bps, or implied 17.4% (vs. consensus 17.8%); and capex inthe range of $725mn to $745mn. Management also provided guidance for 1Q26, seeing EPS inthe range of $1.63 to $1.68 (vs. consensus $2.10); net sales of $2.40bn to $2.43bn (vs. consensus$2.48bn); GM to decline -380bps, or implied 54.5% (vs. consensus 54.7%); and OM to decline Inventory.Based on our proprietary inventory analysis, LULU has posted five consecutivequarters of negative sales-to-inventory growth. In FY4Q25 the Inventory Management Spread("IM Spread") was (847) basis points and worsened from (812) basis points in the prior quarter.LULU's Gross Margin Return on Inventory ("GMROI") has worsened for four consecutive Lowering estimates and PT to $161 (from $203); initiating FY28 EPS of $14.50.Our new FY26 and FY27 adj. EPS estimates are $12.21 and $13.41 (from $12.34 and $13.50), respectively.Our FY28 adj. EPS estimate is $14.50. Our new PT of $161 (from $203) is based on 12x (from 15x)our CY27E adj. EPS of $13.41 (from $13.50). We lower our multiple 3 turns to reflect continuedpressure in NA and recognition of FY26 as a "reset" year. We note our multiple compares to the CONTENTS Summary Results. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6Proprietary PRISM Curve: LULU in the "TRAP" Phase. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7LULU 4Q25 Promo Scores. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9TariffExposure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Inventory Management Spread, GMROI, and OMROI. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 U.S. Specialty Retail, Apparel & Footwear Summary Results Proprietary PRISM Curve: LULU in the "TRAP" Phase From a fundamental perspective, we attempt to use our proprietary PRISM cycle as a leadingindicator of potential sales inflection (i.e., either from positive to negative or negative topositive