中国能源周报：坑口煤价小幅上涨但部分周末下跌

Weekly:mine pitcoalpricesinched higherbut somefell over the weekend Industry Overview Coal: IM mine pit prices fell over the weekend During the week-ended on 27 Mar 2026, the QHD 5,500kcal price was +3.4% WoW toRMB762/t. Thermal coal prices at mine in Shanxi (Kcal5.5k)/Inner Mongolia(Kcal5.5k)/Shaanxi (Kcal5.8k) changed +4.6%/+8.7%/+6.6% WoW to RMB620/ 577/649/t; yet over the weekend, the Inner Mongolia (IM) mine pit price dropped by RMB22/tto RMB555/t. Ports inventory (Northern +Southern) ) was +3.4% WoW to 24.78mnt as of27 Mar 2026. Inventory at the six major IPPs decreased by 1.8% WoW to 12.8mnt, daily-burn +7.3% WoW to 786.1kt. The NEWC 6,000K price was up 0.2% WoW to US$135.6/t,at a 35.7% premium to the QHD price. The Liulin No.4 HCC price was up to RMB1,600/t,+8.1% WoW. As of 30 Mar, the water inflow at the Three Gorges Reservoir was7,500cm/s, 18% higher than the 2005-25 average of 6,343cm/s. Oil prices stayedelevated, Asian LNG spot slideOil:Brent oil increased by 0.3% WoW to US$112.6/b and WTI oil prices increased by 1.3% WoW to US$99.6/b, during the week ended 27 Mar 2026. The WTI discount toBrent narrowed to US$12.9/b. Dirty VLCC (from Arab Gulf to China) dayrate decreased toUSD184k/day, -17% WoW. Gas:The US Henry Hub natural gas price flattish WoW to US$3.10/mmbtu, down 23.9%YoY; the Netherlands TTF natural gas price was down 10.4% WoW to US$18.44/mmbtu,up 43.9% YoY ; and the JKM swap was down 6.0% WoW to US$20.40/mmbtu in theweek ended 27 Mar 2026, up 55.9% YoY. The China CIF LNG import price was up 0.51%WoW to US$9.3/mmbtu in the week ended 22 Mar, down 22.0% YoY. Energy storage:In the week-ended 27 Mar, prices of 50/100/280/314Ah battery cellprices rose RMB0.001/0.002/0.001/0.001Wh WoW to RMB0.42/0.401/0.326/0.347Wh.The prices of all types of PCS remained flattish WoW. Teapot refineries runrate edged lower; naphtha price upChina’s refining margin (one-month crude price lag) in Mar’26 was US$27.4/b verse US$16.4/b in Feb’26, per our calculation. The run-rate of independent refineries inShandong in the week ended 27 Mar 2026 has down 0.5ppt. WoW to 53.79%. North Asian naphtha prices rallied to USD1,215/t, marking 89% increases versus 27 Feblevel, compared with 55% of Brent. During the same period, ethylene and propyleneprices rose to USD1,441/t and USD1,231/t, up 103% and 56%, respectively. LLDPE andPP registered milder increases of 42%/ 44% to RMB1,098/ 1,231/t, respectively. Weekly updates Coal •The QHD 5,500kcal price was +3.4% WoW to RMB762/t during the week-ended 27Mar; •The NEWC 6,000K price was up 0.2% WoW to US$135.6/t, at a 35.7% premium tothe QHD price;•The Liulin No.4 HCC price was up to RMB1,600/t, +8.1% WoW, during the week-ended 27 Mar 2026;•As of 30 Mar, the water inflow at the Three Gorges Reservoir was 7,500cm/s, 18%higher than the 2005-25 average of 6,343cm/s. Exhibit1:ASPatcoalminepitsThermal coal prices at mine in Shanxi (Kcal5.5k)/Inner Mongolia Exhibit2:ASPatQinhuangdaoport(Kcal5,500)As end of27 Mar, ASP of QHD 5,500kcalwas +3.4% WoW to RMB762/t (Kcal5.5k)/Shaanxi (Kcal5.8k) changed+4.6%/+8.7%/+6.6% WoW toRMB620/ 577/649/tas of27 Mar2026 Exhibit3:NEWC6,000KthermalcoalNEWC 6,000K thermal coalwas +0.2% WoW to US$135.6/t as end of27 Mar Exhibit4:LiulinNo.4hardcokingcoalprice(incl.VAT)Liulin No. 4 hard coking coal priceupto RMB1,600/t, +8.1% WoW,during the week-ended 27 Mar2026 2026 Exhibit6:ChinasixmajorIPPs(unit:kt)Inventory at the six major IPPsdecreasedby 1.8% WoW to 12.8mnt, as of Exhibit5:Portsinventory(NorthernandSouthern)Ports inventory (Northern +Southern)was +3.4% WoW to 24.78mnt as of 27 Mar 2026; daily-burn+7.3% WoW to786.1kt 27 Mar2026 Exhibit8:YTDChinacoalproductionChina coal production down 0.3% YoY to 760.0mnt in 2M26 Chinacoalsocialinventoryup8% YoY to689.0mntinFeb’26 BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH Exhibit9:ChinamonthlycoalimportsTotal coal (including lignite) imports was 77.2mnt. +1.5% YoY in 2M26. Oil Brent oil increased by 0.3% WoW to US$112.6/b and WTI oil prices increased by 1.3%WoW to US$99.6/b, during the week-ended 27 Mar 2026. The WTI discount to Brentnarrowed to US$12.9/b. Factors supporting oil prices include the following: •Bloomberg reported TotalEnergies purchased 69 cargoes of Middle Eastern crude inMarch, tightening liquidity in the Dubai pricing window; Factors suppressing oil prices include the following: •Bloomberg reported Saudi Arabia activated its East-West pipeline contingency route,with crude exports from Yanbu reaching a five-day rolling average of 3.66mbd;•Bloomberg reported U.S. President Donald Trump delayed potential strikes on Iran’senergy assets by another 10 days, to April 6.•Bloomberg reported the U.S. authorized sales of already-loaded Iranian oil andpetrochemical cargoes through April 19;•The US total oil inventory (one-week lag) was up 7mb WoW to 872mb through theweek ended 20 Mar 2026. Exhibit11:USweeklyoilandgasrigcountOil rigs-5WoW to 409 and gas rigs -4 WoW to 127; total rig counts reached Exhib