能源行业预测、比较及油气市场趋势

Estimates, Comps, and Oil/GasMarket Trends We provide our latest estimates (FY26) across the investmentgrade E&P, midstream, refining, and OFS sectors. We alsoinclude updated relative value scatters for the E&P andmidstream sectors, as well as inventory trends for keycommodities. Harry Mateer+1 212 412 7903harry.mateer@barclays.comBCI, US Toni Sun+1 212 526 0984yutong.sun@barclays.comBCI, US Last week through April 10, 2026, most energy subsectors outperformed US corporates, whilerefining and midstream underperformed and refining was the worst performer. OFS was thebest performer. On a year-to-date basis, E&P has been the best-performing energy subsector. •The tickers that generated the highest excess returns last week were FANG, HAL and HP.Bottom performers included AR, LNG and EQT. Model Updates •Our refining models reflect the mark-to-market of oil and product forward curves. Althoughdown from last week, our 2026 estimates remain well above the consensus for VLO and MPC,but in the context of 2022, they do not look unreasonable. Oil/Gas Monitors •Refining capacity utilization is above the 2021-25 range and well above the five-yearaverage. Gasoline days of supply is hitting the higher end of the five-year range. •Propane days of supply declined since last week, but are still above the high end of the five-year range. •Distillate days of supply continued to slip lower than the five-year average and is currentlybelow the low end of the five-year range. •Our calculation of natural gas days inventory moved closer to the five-year average, whiledaily balances experienced some volatility, but are currently close to the five-year averageand at a surplus. •The current ratio of NYMEX managed money oil longs to shorts has taken a turn to the morebearish side, the first majorshiftsince the start of the year, and is currently below the five-year average. Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 12.Completed: 10-Apr-26, 17:37 GMTReleased: 13-Apr-26, 10:45 GMTRestricted - External E&P 2026 Estimates Midstream 2026 Estimates Oil Field Services 2026 Estimates Refining 2026 Estimates Oil, Natural Gas, and Products Monitor FIGURE 12. US Gasoline Days of Supply Barclays | Energy Analyst(s) Certification(s):We, Harry Mateer and Toni Sun, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research report and (2) no part of our compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly relatedto the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report. Important Disclosures: Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and itsaffiliates(collectively and each individually, "Barclays"). All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflectsthe local time where the report was produced and maydifferfrom the release date provided in GMT. Availability of Disclosures: For current important disclosures regarding any issuers which are the subject of this research report please refer to https://publicresearch.barclays.com or alternatively send a written request to: Barclays Research Compliance, 745 Seventh Avenue, 13th Floor, New York, NY10019 or call +1-212-526-1072. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investorsshould be aware that Barclays may have a conflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesregularly trades, generally deals as principal and generally provides liquidity (as market maker or otherwise) in the debt securities that are thesubject of this research report (and related derivatives thereof). Barclays trading desks may have either a long and / or short position in such securities,other financial instruments and / or derivatives, which may pose a conflict with the interests of investing customers. Where permitted and subject toappropriate information barrier restrictions, Barclays fixed income research analysts regularly interact with its trading desk personnel regardingcurrent market conditions and prices. Barclays fixed income research analysts receive compensation based on various factors including, but notlimited to, the quality of their work, the overall performance of the firm (including the pro