3月社会融资规模同比增速放缓至7.9%，再次表明商业活动反弹可通过更好的信贷配置而非刺激来支持

Richard Xu, CFAEquity Analyst +852 2848-6729Beryl YangResearch Associate Moderating TSF enough tosupport business activitiesrebound Beryl.Yang@morganstanley.com+852 3963-224Chiyao HuangEquity Analys Chenqian LiuResearch Associate +852 3963-4624 Chenqian.Liu@morganstanley.com+852 3963-0359CHINA FINANCIALS March TSF growth moderated to 7.9% yoy, which again shows that rebound in Asia PacificIndustry View business activities can be supported by better credit allocation rather thanstimulus.Household Loan growth is slowing further with less push for inclusive Loans by China Financials: Steady Loan Growth in Feb-26 with Gradual Shift in New Savings; Healthy M1Growth Encouraging (13Mar2026)China Financials:2026Outlook:Graduallybackto a positive loop (11Jan 2026) policymakers and cautious stance on high-yield consumer loans at banks.Corporates loan are slowing as banks cut lower-yielding discounted bills given less window guidance to maintain headline loan growth by policymakers.We believe the loan mix shift - evidenced by continued declines in bill financing - could support a rebound in financial asset yieldsHousehold deposit growth moderated further to 8.2% yoy, as expected, led by more allocation of new household savings to insurance and mutual funds. RMB loan growth slowed further to 5.8% yoy, largely because of slowdown inthe retail sector: RMB loans added Rmb3.15tn in March, lower yoy because ofcontained retail loans at banks and reduced billfinancing. We believe retail loan riskdigestion -including individual operating loans, consumption loans, and credit cardsand less push for inclusive financing loans are key factors behind the furtherslowdown in retail loan growth. On corporate loans, we saw continued declines inbill financing following Less window guidance. This, combined with stabilizing normalloan yield, should support rebound in financial asset yields. Still resilient household deposit growth despite some moderation as weexpected: Household deposit growth remained healthy at 8.2% yoy, despitedeclining moderately from 8.8% in February. Growth in real economy deposits(household and corporate)moderated to 6.8% yoy,vs.7.3%yoylast month,whilenon-bank financial institution deposits growth accelerated in March, led by moreallocation of new household savings to insurance and mutual funds Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a resultinvestors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a singlefactor in making their investmentdecision For analyst certification andother important disclosuresreferto the Disclosure Section,located attheendofthisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications witha subject company,public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Charts Household deposit growth moderated slightly to 8.2% yoy, from 8.8% yoylast month; both M1 and M2 growth moderated to 5.1% yoy and 8.5% yoy in March2026,respectively.% The information and opinions in Morgan Stanley Research were prepared or are disseminated by Morgan Stanley Asia Limited (which accepts the responsibility for its contents) and/or MorganStanley Asia (Singapore)Pte. (Registration number199206298Z)and/orMorgan Stanley Asia (Singapore)Securities Pte Ltd (Registration number200008434H),regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (which accepts legal responsibility for its contents and should be contacted with respect to any matters arising from, or in connection with, Morgan Stanley Research),and/orMorgan StanleyTaiwanLimited and/orMorgan Stanley&Colnternational plc,SeoulBranch,and/or Morgan StanleyAustraliaLimited(A.BN.67003734576,holderofAustralianfinancialservices license No. 233742, which accepts responsibility forits contents),and/or Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Australia Pty Ltd (A.B.N. 19 O09 145 555, holder of Australian financialservices License No. 240813, which accepts responsibility for its contents), and/or Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited having Corporate Identification No (CIN)U22990MHi998PTC115305, regulated by the Securities and Exchange Board oflndia ('SEBI) and holder of licenses as a Research Analyst (SEBIRegistration No.INH000001105); Stock BrokerRegistration No.IN-DP-NSDL-567-2021)having registered office at Altimus, Level 39 &40,Pandurang Budhkar Marg, Worli, Mumbai 400018,India; Telephone no.+91-22-61181000; ComplianceOfficer Details: Mr. Tejarshi Hardas, Tel. No.: +91-22-61181000 or Emai: tejarshi.hardas@morganstanley.com; Grievance officer details: Mr. Tejarshi Hardas, TeL No.: +91-22-61181000 or Emailmsic-compliance@morganstanley.com which accepts theresponsibilityforits contentsandshouldbe contactedwithrespectto