中国经济：贸易顺差将收窄

Trade surplus to narrow Frank Liu(852) 3761 8957frankliu@cmbi.com.hk Exportgrowth moderated sharply in Mar after the surge in 2M26,likelyreflectingamuchhigher baselast year due to export front-loading.Overall,1Q26 exports continuedto pick up as semiconductors and electronic devicesremainedresilient thanks to the global tech cycle.Imports acceleratedmarkedly inMardriven by stronger purchases of integrated circuits, copper oreand iron ore, suggesting resilient demand for techand raw-material inputsrather than a broad-based recovery in domestic consumption.Rising energypricesmay gradually lift import values while eroding global consumerconfidence and weighing on exports. As a result, the trade surplus may narrow Source: Wind, CMBIGM Exports moderated sharplydue to a higher base.Exportsmoderated to2.5% (all on a YoY basis unless specified) in Marcompared to21.8% in2M26, lower than market expectations at 3.9%,as front-loading ahead ofreciprocal tariffs last year created a much higher base.Overall,1Q26exports rose by 14.7% compared to 3.8% in4Q25.Bydestination,exportsto the US dropped sharplyby26.5%inMar.Exportstoother destinationsincludingASEAN, the EU,AfricaandJapan all notably moderated in Mar,while exports to Latin America and Canada fell to YoY contraction.Trade Source: Wind, CMBIGM Exports remained led by tech cycle and transport equipment. Integrated circuit exportsmarkedlysurged84.9% in Mar and 77.3% in1Q26, extending the semiconductor upcycle, whilepersonal computersandcellphonespicked up to 37.1% and 2.4% in Mar.Exports of automobilesand ships stayed robust at43.9% and 35.8% in Mar.On the other hand,low-value added products including textile,garment and toys notablydropped 28.5%, 29.4% and 41.9% in Mar while their Q1 exports rebounded Importssurged due totech inputs and commodity restocking.China’simports of goodssharplyrose 27.8% in Mar, notably higher than marketexpectations at 5.6%. Imports in1Q26accelerated to22.7%, up from2.9%in1Q25. AI-related inputs remained firm, as import volumes ofcopper oreandintegrated circuits rose 10%and 14.3% inMar,while their importpricesnotably surged51.5% and 34.4%, respectively.Iron ore also rose by 11.5%in volume as infrastructure investment rebounded.For energy products,crude oil import volumedropped 2.8% in Mar, withprice dropping 1.6%, assupply tensionshas shown in imports due to the shipping lags.Forintermediate goods, import volumes of unwrought copper and primary We expecttrade surplus to narrow in 2026.We believethe AI capexupcyclesupporting semiconductors, together with energy-security demanddriving new energy exports such as NEVs, photovoltaic products and lithium declining global consumer confidence,andrising energy and freight costsare likely to cap further upside, while surgesin energy price might begradually shown in imports. As a result, net exports may provide a smallerboost to growth in the upcoming quarters especially in2Q26, prompting theneed for policy support tobolster domestic demand in 2H26. Lookingforward,we expect China’s goods export growth may moderate from 5.2% Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Source:Wind,CMBIGM Disclosures& Disclaimers Analyst Certification The research analyst who is primary responsible for the content of thisresearch report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to the securities or issuerthat the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer; and (2)no part of his or her compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific views expressed by that analyst in this report.Besides, the analyst confirms that neither the analyst nor his/her associates (as defined in the codeof conduct issued by The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission) (1) have dealt in or traded in the stock(s) covered in this research report within 30 calendar days prior to thedate of issue of this report; (2) willdeal in or trade in the stock(s)covered in this research report 3 business days after the date of issue of this report; (3) serve as an officer of any of theHongKong listed companies covered in this report; and (4) have any financial interests in the Hong Kong listed companies coveredin this report. Address: 45/F, Champion Tower, 3 Garden Road, Hong Kong, Tel:(852) 3900 0888 Fax: (852) 3900 0800CMB InternationalGlobal MarketsLimited (“CMBIGM”) is a wholly owned subsidiary of CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (a wholly ownedsubsidiary of China Merchants Bank) Important Disclosures There are risks involved in transacting in any securities. The information contained in t