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UBER, DASH, LYFT, CART: Weather, War, and Wallets; lowering1H26, maintaining longer-term 1Q26 is likely to be a squishy quarter for rideshare and delivery stocks on account of moresevere winter weather and the Middle East conflict (both direct regional exposure in somecases and knock-on effect of higher gas prices). The group has already trading poorly inrecent months thanks to reinvestment dynamics and AI disruption concerns, with latest roundof macro worries only adding to the noise. Our note today attempts to quantify the short-termheadwinds to EBITDA, and we lower numbers accordingly. Nikhil Devnani, CFA+1 917 344 8425nikhil.devnani@bernsteinsg.com Nathan Gee+1 917 344 8573nathan.gee@bernsteinsg.com While all of that doesn’t sound great, these factors are temporary. The bad weather is alreadybehind us and the oil shock will be tied to conflict duration (worst case hopefully off the table).The knock-on effect on consumer demand matters most as we look ahead to 2H and 2027.Over the last 5 years, these services have proven to be remarkably resilient. Hence, we havemaintained our estimates for the outer periods despite lower 1H26. For DASH and UBER, it’salso imperative that we get line of sight to improving incremental margins in 2H26. They havethe capacity to do so, but it will come down to discretionary investment decisions. CART — relatively clean/more insulated from these factors near-term.Domesticallyfocused and running a relatively small fuel savings program, CART feels like the cleanestof the group near-term on these headline events. Our estimates largely hold on EBITDA, aswe embed minor incremental cost. We think this stock will continue to trade on competitivedynamics — another low-double-digit GTV growth guide this earnings cycle would addcredibility to the company’s distensibility in the face of the AMZN/DASH threat. UBER — headline exposure, but notable offsets.On paper, the most exposed toMiddle East conflict and rising fuel prices given the program for drivers. However, UBERhas offsetting mechanisms it can deploy. It recently adjusted Delivery commission ratesacross multiple tiers, an under-appreciated lever for earnings support and investmentcapacity. Flow-through will bethequestion, but it can cushion the blow of near-term Q1/Q2 pressures. Alternatively, a ~2% increase in ride prices could offset the ~40% spike wehave seen in gas prices — a feasible lever the rideshare stocks could leverage if needed. Wemaintain our EBITDA estimates for the year on the net impact of these variables. DASH — lowering 2026 modestly.We lower our 2026 Adj. EBITDA estimate by 2%, ledby 1H26 as we embed fuel savings program,Hernando, and slower Wolt/Deliveroo growthdue to the conflict. We believe the impact to GOV in 1H will be modest, with underlyingtrends in the US still looking healthy, but we’re watching for signals to suggest otherwise.Normalizing 2027 margin expansion remains a key debate for the stock. LYFT — lowering 2026 modestly here too.We maintain our expectations for growth, butlower our Adj. EBITDA forecast for 2026 by 2%. The brunt of the impact is felt in Q2 giventhe timing and duration of LYFT’s fuel savings program. We have not embedded potentialoffsets, which could come in the form of price increases. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We adjust our models, taking down estimates for 1H26. Nonetheless, our view on 2H26 and 2027 remains largely unchangedfor the time being. Of the various puts and takes discussed in our note today, most important is the durability of demand asconsumers absorb higher gas prices — which will likely come down to the duration of this oil shock. We take comfort in howdurable and consistent trends have been in recent years, but these stocks aren’t getting the benefit of the doubt yet. In terms of the variables in their control, incremental margins need to expand in 2H for the stocks to work. DASH (self-controlledinvestment cycle) and UBER (self-controlled investment cycle + recent fee increases in Delivery) both have the means andcapability to deliver on this, but it remains a balance between running these businesses for the long-term and appeasingshareholders. On a multi-year view, AI productivity gains should enable further efficiency gains. Near-term, we think CART is relatively clean with an opportunity to re-rate if it grows through competitive fears. We likeDASH longer-term, though anticipate modest negative revisions to Street Q1/Q2 EBITDA on fuel price investments. UBERfaces a similar hurdle, but has levers to offset the impact. The stock continues to wrestle with a timing gap on competitive AVdeployments vs. its own efforts to bring AVs online. At the current multiple we think UBER is already pricing in negative AVscenarios, and the risk/reward over duration skews favorable as AV fragmentation plays out — but it’ll take time. DETAILS WEATHER, WAR, AND WALLETS The three W’s no company wants to be dealing with, but we anticipate some dir