国外需求冲击与国内附加值：来自越南的企业层面证据

Foreign Demand Shocksand Domestic Value Added Firm-Level Evidence from Viet Nam Anmol AgarwalAlessandro BarattieriAaditya Mattoo South Asia Region &Development Research GroupApril 2026 A verified reproducibility package for this paper isavailable athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org,clickherefor direct access. Policy Research Working Paper11352 Abstract Recent shifts in global trade patterns have received alot of attention, but the implications of these shifts fordomestic value added in exports (DVAR) have so far beenover-looked. This paper documents substantial increases inViet Nam’s aggregate DVAR since 2018, reversing a longdeclining trend. Analysis using matched firm-level andcustoms data reveals that idiosyncratic US demand shockshad large positive effects on firm-level DVAR and output. Firms respond to the shocks by exporting more to both USand non-US markets, and their labor productivity increases,both that are consistent with the economies of scale. Firmsalso increase their use of domestic materials and reducereliance on imported materials, suggesting sensitivity toimplicit rules of origin. Finally, the paper highlights the roleof firm ownership, with non-Chinese owned firms drivingthe increase in domestic value added. This paper is a product of the Office of the Chief Economist, South Asia Region and the Development Research Group,Development Economics. It is part of a larger effort by the World Bank to provide open access to its research and make acontribution to development policy discussions around the world. Policy Research Working Papers are also posted on theWeb at http://www.worldbank.org/prwp. The authors may be contacted at aa2bp@virginia.edu,abarattieri@worldbank.org,and amattoo@worldbank.org. A verified reproducibility package for this paper is available athttp://reproducibility.worldbank.org, clickherefor direct access. The Policy Research Working Paper Series disseminates the findings of work in progress to encourage the exchange of ideas about developmentissues. An objective of the series is to get the findings out quickly, even if the presentations are less than fully polished. The papers carry thenames of the authors and should be cited accordingly. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper are entirely thoseof the authors. They do not necessarily represent the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank andits affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. Foreign Demand Shocks and Domestic ValueAdded: Firm-Level Evidence from Viet Nam* Anmol AgarwalUniversity of VirginiaAlessandro BarattieriWorld Bank & ESG UQAMAaditya MattooWorld Bank JEL Codes:F13, F14, F23, F61, O19 Keywords:Domestic Value Added, Trade Diversion, Foreign Demand Shocks 1Introduction The restructuring of global value chains in response to US-China trade tensions has raisedimportant questions about the extent to which third countries benefit from these shifts.While much of the discussion has emphasized the rising export shares of countries such asViet Nam and Mexico, higher exports do not necessarily imply greater domestic value cre-ation. If firms expand exports primarily by assembling imported intermediates or rerout-ing trade flows, the gains to domestic factors of production may be limited. Changes indomestic value added are crucial for assessing the welfare implications of global supplychain reorganization, as they allow us to distinguish between export growth that involvesgenuine domestic content and that which reflects transshipment. This distinction is es-pecially important given the recent US announcement of higher tariffs on transshippedproducts. This paper examines these questions in the context of Viet Nam, which has emerged asa major beneficiary of the global reallocation of production following the US–China tradetensions since 2018 (Alfaro and Chor, 2023; Freund et al., 2024; Fajgelbaum et al., 2024).1Figure 1a shows that Viet Nam’s share in US imports doubled from 2 to 4 percentagepoints between 2018 and 2022, while the share of the US in Viet Nam’s exports increasedby about 9 percentage points and the share of China in Viet Nam’s imports rose by 5percentage points. This conjunction has raised concerns that much of Viet Nam’s exportgrowth may reflect rerouting of Chinese goods rather than higher domestic content. Us-ing newly matched Vietnamese customs and firm-level survey data for the period 2016 to2020, we construct firm-level measures of domestic value added in exports (DVAR). Westudy how US demand shocks during the 2018-19 US-China trade tensions affect firm-level DVAR in Viet Nam. We motivate our analysis by examining the trend in Viet Nam’s national level DVARin manufacturing.Using a bottom-up approach, we aggregate firm-level DVAR usingfirms’ exports as weights. Our measure shows that Viet Nam’s manufacturing DVAR hasrisen substantially since