全球储能：全球锂行业领导者对2026年锂的未来有何看法

Global Energy Storage: What are the world’s lithium leaderssaying about the future of lithium in 2026? We have closely monitored the annual targets and insights from leading lithium producers togauge what lies ahead for the market. Last year, the sector had clearly bottomed with record-low returns and production cutbacks due to prices dipping below cash costs (see GlobalEnergy Storage: What are the world’s lithium leaders saying about the future of lithium?). Thisyear, the setup looks structurally more positive, with 2026 demand growth outpacing supplyand management showing capital discipline, suggesting the cycle is turning in favor of lithiumsuppliers. Brian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.com Hengliang Zhang+852 2123 2629hengliang.zhang@bernsteinsg.com Return on capital for the lithium industry remained deeply depressed in 2025. At a spot lithium carbonate price of $10k/t in 2025, industry return on capital stayed at anunprecedented low of around 2%, far below the long-term average of c.15%. Profitabilityhave been low with EBIT averaging 5% in the last 3 years. Supply growth is slowing in 2026.Key producers now guide to only 0-10% supplygrowth, with larger step-ups pushed to 2028 onward. Tianqi, Ganfeng and Zijin are rampingprojects like Greenbushes, Cauchari-Olaroz, Goulamina and new Chinese capacity ratherthan sanctioning a new wave of greenfields. Suppliers are cautious on bringing curtailed production back online.Pilbara is theonly clear restart case, returning Ngungaju in stages, while Mineral Resources wantsclearer proof of sustained demand before restarting Bald Hill, highlighting reluctance toreintroduce marginal supply too quickly. CATL’s Jianxiawo still has no restart timetable. Demand expectations have clearly shifted more positive, led by stationary storageand structurally higher power demand.Key producers expect 2026 demand growth of15-40% this year with average around 25% which would exceed supply growth this year. Capex discipline is holding even as prices recover.After roughly 40% capex cutsin 2025, spending is set to fall again in 2026 as major projects finish, with producersusing the price rebound to delever and optimize existing assets rather than re-accelerategreenfield projects, which should help cap supply growth later this decade. Suppliers see strong support at current prices and no demand destruction.Ataround US$20k/t, companies report no material demand loss and impact on downstreammanufacturers are acceptable. The tone has shifted from “bottoming” to “early recovery,”with near-term conditions improving but long-term upside still dependent on continuedsupply discipline. Tianqi offers high-beta exposure to a tightening lithium market with attractivevaluation.Tianqi’s share price has historically moved 6-12 months ahead of spot lithiumcarbonate which is likely tighten further till at least 2027. Tianqi’s current ~35x 1-yearforward P/E and 4.5x 1-year forward P/S - both below long-term averages of about 50xand 8x respectively - leave scope for further rerating if the market prices in a sustainedtightening through 2026-27. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS Lithium remains early in an upcycle, with returns still depressed but the market setup clearly tightening. At about US$10k/t in 2025, industry ROACE was only c.2% vs a 15% long-term average and EBIT around 5%, yet supply growth is alreadyslowing to roughly 0-10% in 2026, with larger step-ups deferred to 2028+. Producers are slow to restart curtailed mines (onlyPilbara’s staged Ngungaju restart is proceeding, while Mineral Resources and CATL remain on the sidelines), even as demandexpectations have turned more positive, with leading players now expecting 2026 demand growth of 15-40% (c.25% onaverage), led by stationary storage and structurally higher power needs. Capex discipline is intact after roughly 40% cuts in2025, with further reductions in 2026 as projects complete and balance sheet repair takes priority, helping to cap medium-termsupply growth. At around US$20k/t, companies see no material demand destruction, and the tone has shifted from “bottoming”to “early recovery contingent on continued discipline.” Within this backdrop, Tianqi offers high-beta leverage to tighteningfundamentals, with its share price historically leading lithium by 6-12 months and current valuation at roughly 35x 1-yearforward P/E and 4.5x P/S, still below long-term averages of about 50x and 8x, leaving room for further rerating if a 2026-27squeeze is priced in. Related notes: December 2025: Global Energy Storage: 2026 Lithium Outlook. How high can prices go?July 2025: Global Energy Storage: Has the price of lithium bottomed?April 2025: Global Energy Storage: What are the world’s lithium leaders saying about the future of lithium?January 2025: Global Energy Storage: 2025 Lithium Outlook. Rising from rock bottom VALUATION COMPS TABLE DETAILS Glob