日本能源与公用事业：行业观点持平

Energy & Utilities: Industry View In-Line Energy & Utilities JapanIndustry View Focus on 1) earnings outlook, 2) management stances, 3) energy policy. Key Takeaways Earnings forecasts for F3/26 and F3/27, shareholder returns policy (DPS, share buybacks), medium-term plansOur key assumptions (F2026 Jan-Mar onwards): Brent crude at $65/bbl and forex rate of ¥150/$ Related reports Powering AI in Japan (2025) (9 Apr 2025) Japan: Natural Gas Demand to Rise Again in the Mid/Longer Term; Eyes on INPEX (8 Jul 2025) Japan Energy & Utilities Industry: P/B Enhancement Plans (Jul 2025) (23 Jul 2025) Turning Point for Japan Carbon Pricing: Japanese Government to Launch CO2 Emissions Trading System (ETS) in FY2026 (25 Sep2025) Japan's Nuclear Power Renaissance Begins (29 Mar 2026) Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business withcompanies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan StanleyResearch. Investors should consider Morgan StanleyResearch as only a single factor in making their investmentdecision. For analyst certification and other important disclosures,refer to the Disclosure Section, located at the end of thisreport. += Analysts employed by non-U.S. affiliates are not registeredwith FINRA, may not be associated persons of the memberand may not be subject to FINRA restrictions oncommunications with a subject company, public appearancesand trading securities held by a research analyst account. Source:FactSet, Morgan Stanley ResearchNote: End-of-month values, indexed to end-Dec 2019 = 100 Source:FactSet, Morgan Stanley ResearchNote: End-of-month values, indexed to end-Dec 2019 = 100 Source:FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; End-of-month values,forecasts are next-FY estimate (FactSet consensus) Source:FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; End-of-month values,forecasts are next-FY estimate (FactSet consensus) Source:FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; End-of-month values,forecasts are next-FY estimate (FactSet consensus) Source:FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; End-of-month values,forecasts are next-FY estimate (FactSet consensus) Source:FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; End-of-month values,forecasts are next-FY estimate (FactSet consensus) Source:FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; End-of-month values,forecasts are next-FY estimate (FactSet consensus) Source:FactSet, Morgan Stanley Research; End-of-month values,forecasts are next-FY estimate (FactSet consensus) Global Crude Supply/Demand Source:Agency for Natural Resources and Energy,MorganStanley Research; Spread= wholesale price-import price ofcrude oil; Weighted average of gasoline, diesel fuel, and Source:Electricityand GasMarket Surveillance Commission (EGC), Morgan StranleyResearch; Monthly,Nationwide average,Morgan Stranley Research estimates Source: Electricityand GasMarket Surveillance Commission (EGC),Morgan StanleyResearch; Dec 2025 Mid-term Plans of Electricity Companies (2) Mid-term Plans of Gas Companies Japanese Government’s 7th Strategic Energy Plan: F3/41 Outlook Japan: Key Businesses in the Energy/Utilities Industry [A] Electricity business (1) Electricity businesses are broadly divided into [a] power generation, [b] transmission/ distribution, and [c] retail businesses(2) The power generation business is not regulated by the Japanese government. The power transmission/distribution business isregulated by the Japanese government.(3) The retail business was fully deregulated in April 2016. However, part of the retail business remains regulated by the Japanesegovernment (transitional measures)(4) Examples companies: Chubu Electric Power (9502.T), Kansai Electric Power (9503.T), Japan Petroleum Exploration (1662.T) [B] City gas business (1) The city gas business is divided into [a] operation of LNG base, [b] LNG import, [c] distribution of city gas via pipes,and[d] retail(2) The city gas distribution business is a regulated by the Japanese government(3) Was fully deregulated in April 2017. Currently, the retail field is not regulated by the Japanese government.(4) Example companies: Tokyo Gas (9531.T), Osaka Gas (9532.T) [C] Crude oil and natural gas upstream business (E&P business) (1) Overview of the upstream business: Produce crude oil and natural gas in oil and gas fields and sell these.(2) Example companies: INPEX (1605.T), Japan Petroleum Exploration (1662.T) [D] Refining business of petroleum products (1) Overview of the petroleum product refinery business: Produce petroleum products from crude oil at refineries and wholesale them.(2) Example companies:IdemitsuKosan (5019.T), ENEOS Holdings (5020.T), Cosmo Energy Holdings (5021.T) [E] LP gas sales business (1) Overview of the LP gas sales business: Procure LP gas (propane, etc.) externally and sell them (wholesale or retail)(2) Example company: Iwatani (8088.T) Thoughts on the Main Extraordinary Variables for Industry Profits Below are the ma