黄金投资者将走出战争掩体

Gold investors to emerge from warbunker Michael Hsueh nWe think gold's prospects have only been temporarily dented as a result ofthe war in Iran. On further de-escalation, gold would stand to benefit onelevated betas to dollar and rates, and we think this is the likely direction oftravel, leading to a USD 5,100/oz target for the second quarter. This wouldbe within gold's typical quarterly range of 10.4%. Research Analyst+65-6423-7510 nEvidence of a dollar bearish context has persisted even through the war,dampening its 'safe haven' characteristics. A resumption of a moderatedollar weaker trend is our expectation, supporting a gold higher view. nHowever, more persistent oil strength would be a downside risk forprecious. This would exert itself through the channel of oil-importer FXweakness and equity market headwinds given the positive risk beta to gold.On gold upside risks, a potential re-ordering of strategic alignments couldweaken the petrodollar recycling and security arrangement which hasprevailed since 1974 (Link). nWe see the Central Bank of Türkiye’s gold selling1 as an exception to abroader official preference for continued accumulation, as observed in thePBoC’s report of a 17thmonth of buying in March2 and reports from thePolish central bank that gold purchases will continue3. Poland was thelargest official buyer of gold in the IMF data last year at 3.3 mm troy oz. Inaddition, the China "other investment demand" calculated metric indicatesthat unreported official buying is likely to remain steady in Q1. nWe moderate our year-end target to USD 5,800/oz (down from USD 6,000/oz), which is predicated on USD depreciation to -4% on the broad index,with positive ETF and futures market inflows resuming. nFor the white metals, we lower our price forecasts as the outperformancecycle has ended. Our expectation of a wider amplitude gold-silver cycle wasfounded on signs of physical scarcity that have now broadly dissipated.However, still-high PGM lease rates are worth watching, as is the continueddecline in China exchange inventory of silver to the lowest levels on recordin data from 2016. We still see upside for silver in towards USD 88/oz by yearend, consistent with XAUXAG at 66. 10 April 2026Precious Special Report Geopolitical stress may moderate There are valid concerns over the viability of a path leading to a firm agreement fromthe ceasefire agreed early this week. Nevertheless, we think that the stabilisationin the precious complex will give way to a resumed uptrend, as dollar weakertendencies are re-established. We observe that the oil supply disruption, which has been the main transmissionmechanism from the war to financial markets, may be on an intermittent pathtowards normalisation, Figure 2. This might reflect alignment of incentives for aresumption of commercial shipping traffic, but only if a de-escalatory path holds. The status of the Strait remains a point of contention, as the US has threatenedTehran over the charging of fees.4As a matter of fact, Strait tolls charged jointly byIran and Oman may have some legal basis5. Nevertheless if the US and GCC alliesdo not accept this, it may block a war resolution for the near future, as the GCC havevoiced their opposition6. Despite the difficulty in envisaging an end to the war, our geopolitical analysts"assess that the probability of a longer-term solution is strong" given diminishingreturns to further US military involvement. The incentives for the US and Iran lie infinding a compromise,making a deal our baseline scenariowhich “allows allparties to walk away “relative” victors" (Link). USD 5,100/oz would be within typical quarterly range Although Pakistan-brokered diplomacy stands on very fragile ground at thismoment, an eventual breakthrough could result in the broad dollar index narrowingthe gap to January lows and gold moving above USD 5,000/oz. Without a deal inApril, Iran is unlikely to begin normalising commercial traffic through the Strait,deepening energy stress on oil importers, renewing gold-weaker dynamics thathave prevailed during March. If a resolution to the war is found,gold's typical quarterly range of 10.4%could 10 April 2026Precious Special Report accommodate both the quarter-to-date low around USD 4,650/oz (based on dailycloses) and USD 5,150/oz on the upper bound. Dollar bearish context may reassert itself During the course of the war, our FX and Rates colleagues note thatdollar 'safehaven' demand has been dampenedby official selling of Treasuries (Link), absenceof improvement in rate differentials, and reduced inclination for foreign investors tobuy unhedged USD assets (Link). We think this would align with abroader dollarnegative context that may reassert itselfbefore long, including that the US currentaccount deficit exceeded 4% last year which tends to be dollar negative over thefollowing year (Figure 4). Also, US short-term rates are less highly ranked amongstG10 than in 2023-24 (Figure 5), and US equitie