未来交通：忽视消费者偏好风险大

Ignore consumer preference at your peril ◆Ambitionto decarbonisenolonger universal as the US looksto plot a different path. Restof the worldlargely unchanged ◆Wavering regulation leads to a costly pivot away from EVs,butoverall trend remains towardselectrification ◆Software, autonomous and mobility solutions carry moreexcitement, but the commercial reality still seems distant Making transport clean(er) remains the central tenet of the industry.As the second-largest contributor to globalCO2emissions,transportneedsto becleaner. The catch is,there is limited agreementonhowto do thisand most solutions only consider newadditions to road transport rather than the installed base.For sea and air, the challengeremains theavailabilityof alternative fuels.This explainswhy transport,in contrast tomostindustrial sectors,hasnotseenemissionsreducein a meaningful way. On a morepositive note, ICCT believes 2025 will be thepeak forroad transport emissions.In2025we sawregulatory resolvebeingtested and theresult wasdiluted,delayed or deletedtargets.Perhaps a more collaborative approachis needed? Regulatoryvacillationcarries a cost–for shareholders.Despite the somewhatobvious headwinds toEVadoption (affordability,lack ofinfrastructure andlimited range),regulatorssteadfastlybelieve electromobilityis the right/only choice for road transport.Consumersare less convinced–they are switching, but(China aside)at a slower thanexpected pace.Why?Affordability isthe mainreason, with convenience running a closesecond.Regulators have started to adjust to reflect this reality, but the net result of thechanging EV trajectory isa collective hit to OEMprofitsofmore thanUSD70bn.Thisamountcould haveinsteadbeen invested in technologicallyneutral alternatives. Away from the auto world, government resolve is being tested too.In aviationand shipping,alternative fuels and electrification are the key tools to reduce theenvironmental impact, but progress is slow. Availability of sustainableaviationfuel(SAF) remains far below industry requirements,with higher production needinggreater government support. In shipping,the adoption of a net-zero framework (NZF)has been delayed and it seems the same nations that are walking back onelectromobility are also questioning the viability of NZF. Commitment is needed. Autonomousbrings shared/robotaxito reality.As EV ambitions have wavered,developments around autonomous vehicleshave progressed (thanks toextensiveuse ofAI) and robotaxis are growing at pace in the US and China.From a standing start theopportunitiesforrobotaxisare sizeable, but pricing needs to fall meaningfully (in the US)before these will bea threat to existing ownership models. Weare concerned aboutthesignificant upfront costs, with long-dated and/or uncertain returns on investment.Our Contents Future transport Transport for net-zero deliveryEV batteries & critical mineralsKey reports An overview of the themeWhat is the outlook for 2026+? Passenger cars6 Light vehicles (cars and vans)6Regulation ‘push’ diminished,consumer ‘pull’ is key9Regional divergence emerges11HSBC light vehicle globalpenetration forecasts15Charging infrastructure17Korea EV LIB materials20Key reports22 Disruptive technology Global autonomous driving androbotaxi52China Autonomous Driving56China Robotaxi56Key variables to watch in 202657eVTOLs are coming58Drone disruption59Key reports60Appendix61 Asia EV supply chains23 Revisiting ‘electromobility’ in AsiaPedal to the metal Disclosure appendix Disclaimer65 Non-auto transport28 Heavy duty vehicles: Thechallenging path to zero emissions28Aviation: Race towards NetZero 205031Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF)33Shipping: Will the NZF be formallyadopted?35Key reports38 Powering Future Transport39 Decarbonisation of powerkeeping pace39The flexibility dividend–howpower benefits from EVs42The grid is ready44Key reports47 Future transport ◆Transport is a substantial contributorto global emissions andis,therefore, acorefocus for decarbonisation, but progress is slow◆In the short term, adoption of electric vehicles is in focus; longer-term,software, autonomous and mobility solutions are key topics◆Outside the auto world, alternative fuels are anarea of interest inshipping and aviation. Fuel prices remainamainobstacle An overview of the theme Some progress on decarbonisation, but it is slow and the outlook is tough.According tothe UN, the transport sector accounts for roughly one quarter of global greenhouse gasemissions, of which c75% is attributable to road (see above). With 80-90m cars sold annually,reducing passenger car emissions is central to reducing the environmental impact of transport.In this vein, electrification is a central tenet of the future transport theme. However,decarbonisation of passenger vehicle transport is not a simple task: it requires the alignment ofregulation, affordable alternatives and, above all else, a consumer willing to accept near-termchallenges thatmightone-day subside. There is an add