中国房地产：市场已提前进入2027

EquitiesREMD Catch me if you can: themarket’s already in 2027 China ◆2025is noise;2027 is signal Michelle Kwok*Head of Asia Real Estate and HK Equity ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedmichellekwok@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6918 ◆The mall renaissance isreal (if runcorrectly) ◆Our preferred picks are Buy-rated CRL, C&D and Seazen Oliver Yu*Analyst, Asia Real EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedoliver.y.o.x.yu@hsbc.com.hk+852 2288 2050 Fivethingsfrom FY25 earnings that formulate ourpositiveplaybook:(1)FY25Earnings mattered less than we thought–markets are discounting2027.The market has decisively looked beyond the weak FY25 earnings season,underlined bystocks’insensitivereactionstoresults, indicating to usthatthe sector isnow on a clearer runway for a re-rating, as investors look tobrighterearningsprospects in 2027. We expectallthemajor developerswe coverto deliver earningsgrowth in 2027(Figure 2), and see upside risks to our forecast should inventoryimpairments decline fasterthanour expectations. Stephen Wang*, CFAAnalyst, Asia Real EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedstephen.wang@hsbc.com.hk+852 2284 1675 * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations (2)Well-run mallshave potential for strong outperformance–CRL is a proof.We were surprisedandencouraged to see the strong retail salesgrowth in CRL’small portfolio, whichgrew 22% y-o-y,significantlyoutperforming the broadermarket(3.7%)and also itspeers (7-15%). Thisisa clear reflection of the vast retail walletthat can be unlocked if landlords are able to curate offerings that suit today’sconsumerbehaviour. (3)Lower-tier mallsaremoving up the agenda.Buildingon the retail theme, CRLcited its intention to venture into lower-tier cities for the first time. This isanopportunity we highlighted last year about the underappreciated strengthof thelower-tier retailmarket. Our preferred pick Seazen (Buy)hasthe most directexposure tothis theme (refer toLower-tier cities shine for shopping mall landlords,16Sep 2025). (4) Releveraging again–policy constraint is easing.The two largestcentralSOEsin our coverage, COLI and CRL,have both reported meaningfully higher netdebt levels, up 22% y-o-y for COLI and 37% y-o-y for CRL, respectively. Togetherwith the moderate uptick in net debt among regional SOEs(Greentown and Yuexiu)and POE(Seazen), the government hasloosenedits grip on developers’balancesheets with thediscontinuation ofthe“Three Red Lines” reporting requirement (refertoErasing the Red Lines: Powering a rally, 30 Jan 2026). (5)Dividend stabilityis a support–and could improve with earnings recovery.Despite earnings weakness, our coverage(exceptGreentown and Longfor,giventheir core losses) has maintained or lifted dividendpayout ratiosas a vote ofconfidence of the business environment. This provides comfort that the sector’sdividend yield isreliable andhasroom for growth as earnings recover in a year, aswe expect. In our coverage, C&D stands out with the highest dividend yield of7%,while we believe CRL couldincreaseitspayoutratio this year (refer toCRL: A clearadaptive winner,30Mar2026). HSBC Global Investment Summit 14 to 16 April 2026 Find out more Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Valuation charts Valuation and risks Disclosure appendix Analyst Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), andany otherviews or forecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflecttheir personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to thespecificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Michelle Kwok, Oliver Yu and Stephen Wang, CFA Important disclosures Equities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis HSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report (“HSBC”) believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stockshoulddepend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making