中国神华能源 H/A股：持有/持有：煤炭开采业务将逐步改善，但派息前景或保持平稳

EquitiesMetals & Mining H/A: Hold/Hold:Coal miningbusinessto improvegradually,but payout outlook may stay flat China ◆2025 results in line, payout was lifted to 77%under IFRSalbeitdecline in earnings and operating cash flow H: MAINTAIN HOLD TARGET PRICE(HKD)PREVIOUS TARGET(HKD)43.0042.00 ◆Coal segment likely to see a gradual improvement in2026 onASPstabilising, but power segment likely be a drag ◆Maintain Shenhua H/A at Hold/Hold,raiseTPsslightlytoHKD43.00/RMB49.00(from HKD42.00/RMB48.00) 2025 results in line:Shenhua reportednet profits of RMB54.2bn (-9% y-o-y) for2025 underIFRS, in line with its preliminary profits alert. Operating cash flowdropped 18%y-o-yto RMB75.1bn.ShenhuaproposedaDPSof RMB1.03,implyinga 77%payout ratio (+2ppts)under IFRS, exceeding itscash dividendpolicy of 65%. A: MAINTAIN HOLD TARGET PRICE(CNY)PREVIOUS TARGET(CNY)49.0048.00SHARE PRICE(CNY)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE47.69+2.7%(as of02 Apr 2026) Coal segmentlikely to see agradualimprovement: ASP:Shenhuareported ac12% decline in ASP in 2025, demonstrating continuedpricing resilience relative to the broader market,whilstspot coal prices fell 20%y-o-y. During the results briefing,Shenhuaindicated that spot coal prices areexpected to remain broadly stable atcRMB700/t and maintained a constructiveview on pricing momentum heading into the summer peak-demand season. ◆On thecostside, unit production costs at Shenhua’s self-owned minesfell0.5%y-o-yto RMB167/t in2025. Management guided that unit costs in2026shouldrise less than 4%. Given Shenhua’s strong execution track record and integratedoperating model, we believeit islikely todeliver better-than-expected costoutcomes in2026. A lacklustre outlook in power segment:Shenhua recorded13% growth in itspower segmentresultsin2025.Lookingahead, we believe Shenhua’s thermal poweroperation remains under pressure, similar to our covered thermal IPPs which couldweigh down by both tariff and utilisation hours. With this, we think its power segmentmight be the drag in 2026 earnings outlook. Daniel Yang*Analyst, Asia Energy TransitionThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limiteddaniel.h.yang@hsbc.com.hk+852 299 66976 Capex budgetand dividend:Shenhua budgetsitscapex at RMB38bn for 2026before its assets acquisition.Weanticipatethecompanytolikely stretch its capexplanby another RMB10-20bnfocusingonits coal-chemicaland mining business.WeexpectDPStolikely stay flattishy-o-y. Evan Li*Head, Asia Energy Transition ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedevan.m.h.li@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6619 Vivian Zhou*AssociateGuangzhou MaintainShenhua H/A at Hold/Hold:We raise our2026-27earnings estimates2-3%and introduce our2028forecast in this note.Our revisedH/A shareTPs ofHKD43.00/RMB49.00(from HKD42.00/RMB48.00) imply8%downside / 3%upside,and we maintainour Hold ratings onShenhua H/Aas we think Shenhua’s resilienceinthepreviousdowncyclecouldhelpimprove its coal mining business as ASPlikelystabilisesthis year, though it may drag a bit by lower earnings from its poweroperations.Key up/downside risks: higher/lower coal price. * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations HSBC Global Investment Summit | 14 to 16 April 2026Find out more Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBankingCorporation Limited Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation Where is China Shenhua on the energy transition journey?The company currently has100% ofitsrevenue sourced from coal-related activities, which include coal mining extraction,coal logistics and services, coal-to-chemicals, and coal power generation. To reduce its coalexposure, Shenhua invested RMB6bn to set up Guoneng New Energy Industrial funds, whichwill be focused on acquiring wind and solar projects and investing in hydrogen technologies.Asof theendof 2025, Shenhua hadc3.5GW of renewable projects inthepipeline,which arefocused onbuildingmoregreen assetsto diversify awayfrom itscoal exposure. Earnings revisions Weraiseour2026-27earnings estimates2-3%after the results briefing. In this note, weintroduce our earnings estimates for 2028. Valuation and risks Disclosure appendix AnalystCertification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), andany otherviews or forecasts expressed her