中国神华能源：煤炭开采业务逐步改善，电力板块或拖累，维持持有评级

EquitiesMetals & Mining H/A: Hold/Hold:Coal miningbusinessto improvegradually,but payout outlook may stay flat China ◆2025 results in line, payout was lifted to 77%under IFRSalbeitdecline in earnings and operating cash flow H: MAINTAIN HOLD TARGET PRICE(HKD)43.00SHARE PRICE(HKD)46.58 (as of02 Apr 2026) ◆Coal segment likely to see a gradual improvement in2026 onASPstabilising, but power segment likely be a drag ◆Maintain Shenhua H/A at Hold/Hold,raiseTPsslightlytoHKD43.00/RMB49.00(from HKD42.00/RMB48.00) 2025 results in line:Shenhua reportednet profits of RMB54.2bn (-9% y-o-y) for2025 underIFRS, in line with its preliminary profits alert. Operating cash flowdropped 18%y-o-yto RMB75.1bn.ShenhuaproposedaDPSof RMB1.03,implying TARGET PRICE(CNY)PREVIOUS TARGET(CNY)49.0048.00SHARE PRICE(CNY)UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE47.69+2.7%(as of02 Apr 2026) Coal segmentlikely to see agradualimprovement: ASP:Shenhuareported ac12% decline in ASP in 2025, demonstrating continued pricing resilience relative to the broader market,whilstspot coal prices fell 20%y-o-y. During the results briefing,Shenhuaindicated that spot coal prices areexpected to remain broadly stable atcRMB700/t and maintained a constructive ◆On thecostside, unit production costs at Shenhua’s self-owned minesfell0.5%y-o-yto RMB167/t in2025. Management guided that unit costs in2026shouldrise less than 4%. Given Shenhua’s strong execution track record and integrated A lacklustre outlook in power segment:Shenhua recorded13% growth in itspower segmentresultsin2025.Lookingahead, we believe Shenhua’s thermal poweroperation remains under pressure, similar to our covered thermal IPPs which couldweigh down by both tariff and utilisation hours. With this, we think its power segment Daniel Yang*Analyst, Asia Energy TransitionThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limiteddaniel.h.yang@hsbc.com.hk+852 299 66976 Capex budgetand dividend:Shenhua budgetsitscapex at RMB38bn for 2026before its assets acquisition.Weanticipatethecompanytolikely stretch its capexplanby another RMB10-20bnfocusingonits coal-chemicaland mining business.We Evan Li*Head, Asia Energy Transition ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedevan.m.h.li@hsbc.com.hk+852 2996 6619 Vivian Zhou*Associate MaintainShenhua H/A at Hold/Hold:We raise our2026-27earnings estimates2-3%and introduce our2028forecast in this note.Our revisedH/A shareTPs ofHKD43.00/RMB49.00(from HKD42.00/RMB48.00) imply8%downside / 3%upside,and we maintainour Hold ratings onShenhua H/Aas we think Shenhua’s resilience Guangzhou * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and isnot registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations HSBC Global Investment Summit | 14 to 16 April 2026 Issuer of report:The Hongkong and ShanghaiBankingCorporation Limited Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com Financials & valuation Source: HSBCNote:Priced at close of 02 Apr 2026 Where is China Shenhua on the energy transition journey?The company currently has100% ofitsrevenue sourced from coal-related activities, which include coal mining extraction,coal logistics and services, coal-to-chemicals, and coal power generation. To reduce its coalexposure, Shenhua invested RMB6bn to set up Guoneng New Energy Industrial funds, which Earnings revisions Weraiseour2026-27earnings estimates2-3%after the results briefing. In this note, weintroduce our earnings estimates for 2028. Valuation and risks Disclosure appendix AnalystCertification The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s)whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), andany other Important disclosures Equities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis HSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report (“HSBC”) believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stockshoulddepend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions. Ratings should not be used orrelied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different rating From 23rd March 2015 HSBC has assigned ratings on the following basis: The target price is based on the analyst’s assessment of the stock’s actual current value, although we