情况会有多糟？
EconomicsGlobal The keymacro chartsasMiddle Eastconflictcontinues ◆Surging energy prices due to conflict in the Middle East… ◆…are putting upward pressure on a wide range of prices andglobal inflation… ◆…which could leadcentral bankstoraise ratesandconsumers to pull back on spending Despite the announcement of a two-week ceasefire,the global economic outlookcontinues to be rocked by uncertaintyemanatingfrom the Middle East–with energyprices staying elevatedand worries about price shocks and shortages of a range of othercommodities that come from the region, such as helium,aluminium,and some chemicals. James PomeroyGlobal EconomistHSBC Bank plcjames.pomeroy@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 6714 The pricemoveshavebeen sharp, but the economic impact may take a few monthsto be fully seen.Hard economic data forMarch arelimited,but theavailablesurveys–includingPMIs and national business and consumer surveys–reflect slowingactivity and widespreadpricing concerns across the world. Maitreyi DasGlobal EconomistHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedmaitreyi.das@hsbc.co.in+91 80 6737 3155 As outlined in our latestGlobal Economics Quarterly,26 March 2026, the globalgrowth-inflation trade-off has worsened–but by how much will depend on thenatureand duration of the conflict,which remainhighlyuncertain. The impact will bemostacutein the Middle East, where we have slashed our growth forecasts (see:CEEMEAEconomics Quarterly: Loss adjustment,30 March 2026), and then in Asia, wherewecould see much higher inflation and shortages of some materials (see:AsianEconomics Quarterly: Jolted,27 March 2026). In Europe, weprojecthigher inflationand weaker growth, but onlysee the ECB and BoE raising rates in the moreadversescenarios (see:European Economics Quarterly: Forged in crises?, 23 March 2026). Bethan EllisGlobal EconomistHSBC Bank plcbethan.ellis@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 6714 Prachi MathurAssociateBangalore Central banks will be watching the data in the coming weeks for any signs that theenergysupply shock is rippling into other parts of the global economy. Our base case is for mostcentral banks to sit tight for now, but whilst many could be pushed into tightening, anynotable rise in US unemploymentcould be a trigger for rate cuts.The March labourmarket data in the US sawa big rise innonfarm payrolls, withtheunemploymentratefalling slightly, butthere remain plenty of risks to the labour market outlook. Eurozone inflationshot up in March, led by higher energy prices, but we believe that isjust the beginning, with the full impact of the energy shocklikely to be seen in theupcoming months. We are in a vacuum of consumer activity data–which we get with alag–so it may be some time before we can seeany impactonspending.Almost allactivity datathatprecedes March will be of little value when thinking aboutthe outlook. On thetradefront, the US announceda100% tariff onpatented pharmaceuticals(effectivein120-180 days),yetthere were significant carve-outs for generics and drugsplanned to bemanufactured in the US, as well as lower tariffs for the EU(among others). HSBC Global Investment Summit 14 to 16 April 2026 Just as the global economy was turning a bit of a corner, another supply shock hasderailed things. How bad it gets will depend on what happens with the conflict in thecoming weeks–which isimpossible to predict. Find out more Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc Disclosures & DisclaimerThis report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com How are financial marketsholding up? Amid elevated geopoliticalrisks, risk assets have beenselling offglobally… Source:Macrobond …particularly in Asia Source:MacrobondLatest data: 6thApril Meanwhile,long term yieldsrose sharply in developedmarkets Which commodities are seeing the greatest impacts? Oil and gas prices are up… Source:MacrobondLatest data: 2ndApril …with jet fuelprices risingeven faster… Source: MacrobondLatest data: 6thApril …andstarted to impact othercommodities as well Source:Bloomberg.Latest data:2ndApril Supply chainsareimpacted Higher fertiliser prices mayimpact countries like BrazilandThailand PMIs and global shippingcosts indicateinflation mayrise inthecoming months… Source:MacrobondLatest data:w/c 30thMarch …and may impact supplychainsas well Petrol prices will for many be the most immediate impact Retail fuel prices are alreadyon the rise inmanyeconomies… …particularly in Asia, butIndia has cut excise duties tokeep retail prices unchanged Several developedcountrieshave announced fuel tax cuts Source:Bloomberg, Latest data31stMarch USinflationwillrise in coming months In the US,energy prices areon the rise… Source:MacrobondLatest data: February 2026 …with surveys suggestingmore is to come… Source:MacrobondLatest data: March 2026 27. Powell has suggestedlooking throug
