情况会有多糟？

EconomicsGlobal The keymacro chartsasMiddle Eastconflictcontinues ◆Surging energy prices due to conflict in the Middle East… ◆…are putting upward pressure on a wide range of prices and ◆…which could leadcentral bankstoraise ratesand Despite the announcement of a two-week ceasefire,the global economic outlookcontinues to be rocked by uncertaintyemanatingfrom the Middle East–with energyprices staying elevatedand worries about price shocks and shortages of a range of other James PomeroyGlobal EconomistHSBC Bank plcjames.pomeroy@hsbc.com+44 20 7991 6714 The pricemoveshavebeen sharp, but the economic impact may take a few monthsto be fully seen.Hard economic data forMarch arelimited,but theavailablesurveys–includingPMIs and national business and consumer surveys–reflect slowing Maitreyi DasGlobal EconomistHSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limitedmaitreyi.das@hsbc.co.in As outlined in our latestGlobal Economics Quarterly,26 March 2026, the globalgrowth-inflation trade-off has worsened–but by how much will depend on thenatureand duration of the conflict,which remainhighlyuncertain. The impact will bemost Bethan EllisGlobal EconomistHSBC Bank plcbethan.ellis@hsbc.com acutein the Middle East, where we have slashed our growth forecasts (see:CEEMEAEconomics Quarterly: Loss adjustment,30 March 2026), and then in Asia, wherewecould see much higher inflation and shortages of some materials (see:AsianEconomics Quarterly: Jolted,27 March 2026). In Europe, weprojecthigher inflationand weaker growth, but onlysee the ECB and BoE raising rates in the moreadverse Prachi MathurAssociateBangalore Central banks will be watching the data in the coming weeks for any signs that theenergysupply shock is rippling into other parts of the global economy. Our base case is for mostcentral banks to sit tight for now, but whilst many could be pushed into tightening, anynotable rise in US unemploymentcould be a trigger for rate cuts.The March labour Eurozone inflationshot up in March, led by higher energy prices, but we believe that isjust the beginning, with the full impact of the energy shocklikely to be seen in theupcoming months. We are in a vacuum of consumer activity data–which we get with alag–so it may be some time before we can seeany impactonspending.Almost all On thetradefront, the US announceda100% tariff onpatented pharmaceuticals(effectivein120-180 days),yetthere were significant carve-outs for generics and drugs HSBC Global Investment Summit 14 to 16 April 2026 Just as the global economy was turning a bit of a corner, another supply shock hasderailed things. How bad it gets will depend on what happens with the conflict in the Find out more Issuer of report:HSBC Bank plc Disclosures & Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. View HSBC Global Investment Research at:https://www.research.hsbc.com How are financial marketsholding up? Amid elevated geopoliticalrisks, risk assets have beenselling offglobally… Source:Macrobond …particularly in Asia Source:MacrobondLatest data: 6thApril Source:MacrobondLatest data: 7thApril Meanwhile,long term yieldsrose sharply in developed Source: MacrobondLatest data: 6thApril Ho w have financial marketsbehaved? Which commodities are seeing the greatest impacts? Oil and gas prices are up… Source:MacrobondLatest data: 2ndApril Source: MacrobondLatest data: 6thApril …with jet fuelprices risingeven faster… Source:BloombergLatest data: 6thApril Source: MacrobondLatest data: 6thApril …andstarted to impact other Source:Bloomberg.Latest data:2ndApril Source:Bloomberg,Latest data:7thApril Supply chainsareimpacted Higher fertiliser prices mayimpact countries like Brazil Source:Bloomberg,Latest data6thApril Source:IMF PMIs and global shippingcosts indicateinflation may Source:MacrobondLatest data:w/c 30thMarch Source:MacrobondLatest data:March2026 …and may impact supply Petrol prices will for many be the most immediate impact Retail fuel prices are alreadyon the rise inmany Source:Global Petrol Prices …particularly in Asia, butIndia has cut excise duties tokeep retail prices unchanged Several developedcountries Source:Bloomberg, Latest data31stMarch USinflationwillrise in coming months Source:MacrobondLatest data: February 2026 Source:Bloomberg,AAALatest data:7thApril …with surveys suggesting Source:MacrobondLatest data: March 2026 Source:Macrobond, HSBC estimatesLatest data: January 2026 …but broader pricepressuresaremore subdued Source:MacrobondLatest data: March 2026 Central banks will have less room for rate cuts… We expect the Fed and theECB to keep policy rates …while the BoE would delayits ratecuts to 2027 A more hawkish path forcentral banks is likely if the …amid already stretched fiscal policy US public financescouldbe Source: Macrobond Source:Macrobond Many countries have alreadyannounced