半导体行业是否处于超级周期？

The 2026 Global Semiconductor IndustryOutlook explores the dynamics behindAI-driven demand, supply chain constraints,and macroeconomic uncertainty. This is the 21st annual KPMG Global SemiconductorIndustry Outlook, with key findings from a surveyof 151 senior executives from global semiconductorcompanies. More than half of the respondents werefrom companies with more than US$1 billion inannual revenue. The survey was conducted in thefourth quarter of 2025 by KPMG LLP and the GlobalSemiconductor Alliance (GSA). Contents 05Key survey findings 01Welcome letter The publication is designed for semiconductorcompany CEOs, COOs, CFOs, controllers, financeleaders, and strategic and corporate developmentpersonnel. This work is equally relevant forexecutives of companies whose products areheavily reliant on semiconductor components,including products for telecommunications,telecommunications infrastructure, cloud services,data centers, artificial intelligence, platformproviders, devices supporting Internet of Things(IoT) applications, and automotive electronicapplications. 06Key recommendations 02Executive summary – A supercyclereshapes the semiconductor industry 07HowKPMGandGSAcan help 03Introduction – A tale of two realities 08Appendix 04Separating AI myth from reality Welcome These changes are cascading across markets faster thanmany expected. For the past few years, tech leaders havepondered whether the industry is entering a “supercycle”fueled by the explosive growth of AI. But now, these leadersare asking a new set of questions: How do we build capacityat the speed AI requires? How do we diversify risk withoutslowing innovation? What will be the effects of global politics,trade, and reshoring? And how do we equip our people tothrive in an AI-driven future? advantage will depend on agility, resilience, and the strategicuse of AI to amplify talent and accelerate operations. For more than two decades, the KPMGAnnual Semiconductor Outlook hastracked the ebbs and flows of an industryshaped by innovation, investmentcycles, and global competition. In 2026,semiconductor companies are in the midstof the most consequential moment in theindustry’s history: Not only has artificialintelligence (AI) become the dominantdemand engine across the semiconductorsupply chain, but it is also reshapingproduct roadmaps, accelerating capitalinvestment, upending strategies, andtransforming the nature of work insidesemiconductor companies themselves. Across these pages, you’ll find our assessment of theopportunities and constraints shaping the next decadeof semiconductor leadership. You’ll also find practicalrecommendations, grounded in data and sharpened by ourwork with leading industry players, to help you navigate thismoment with confidence. We hope this year’s report equips you with clarity, ambition,and actionable insight as you plan for the road ahead. Webelieve the supercycle is here. The choices leaders make nowwill not only define their own trajectory, but also the future ofthe global technology landscape. This 21st Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook draws onthe perspectives of senior industry executives from acrossthe world and within KPMG. The results are clear: Today’sgrowth is broad-based and rooted in real demand, not hype.At the same time, executives recognize that sustained ChrisGentle ChadSeiler CecilMak Line of Business Leader,Technology, Media and Telecom Leader of KPMG GlobalSemiconductor practice US Sector Leader,Technology Executivesummary Asupercyclereshapesthesemiconductorindustry In response to geopoliticalpressures and trade uncertainty,supply chain agility has becomethe top strategic priority forsemiconductor leaders In boardrooms across the semiconductor industry, theconversation has shifted. For years, leaders asked whenthe cycle would turn. Today, they’re asking how fastthey can build. The real demand for AI suggests that thesemiconductor supercycle may be underway. In response to geopolitical pressures and tradeuncertainty, supply chain agility has become the topstrategic priority for semiconductor leaders.Cited by 45percent of respondents, rewiring for speed and agility hassurpassed talent development for the first time in threeyears. The focus is clear: Diversify where you source andbuild, digitize planning, and shorten the time from signal toresponse. 02 Cited by 45 percent of respondents, rewiring for speedand agility has surpassed talent development for the firsttime in three years. The focus is clear: Diversify whereyou source and build, digitize planning, and shorten thetime from signal to response. The21st KPMG Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook,based on our survey of 151 senior executives, makes thecase that AI-driven demand is not a bubble; it’s a fundamentalmarket shift. AI sits at the center, driving broad-based growthacross cloud computing, memory, and core processing. Thechallenge for leaders is to capture outsized opportunitieswhile managing supply, talent