驾驭下一个十年的航空旅行

Near-term challenges abound, but strong industryfundamentals should power long-term growth. By Michael Sion, John Wenzel, Massimo Sabella, Geoffrey Weston,and Rostislav Khomenko Navigating the Next Decade of Air Travel At a Glance US international passenger air travel dropped below 2024 levels inFebruary and March after Global revenue passenger kilometers are still forecast to grow at a compound annual rateof 4.7% through 2030 if economic growth stabilizes and supply keeps pace. Supply of aircraft may constrain air travel, as deliveries in 2023 and 2024 fell short Trade barriers and investment uncertainty will worsen current constraints on aircraft production Air travel demand has bounced back fast, topping its prepandemic peak in 2024. But the industryfaces new volatility from trade tensions, shifting traveler behavior, and supply constraints, particularlyin the US. Air travel to and from the US has been softer in the first half of2025, despite lower oil prices Navigating the Next Decade of Air Travel The outlook for the next five years is mixed. In the near term, unprecedented uncertainty about tradeflows, macroeconomic conditions, and traveler sentiment will temper demand. Over the long run, thefundamentals for air travel remain strong. More efficient aircraft, falling real ticket prices, and rising For now, airlines are grappling with declining demand, despite lower oil prices and softeningcommitm,ents to sustainability initiatives. US international passenger air travel dropped below And more shifts may be ahead. For example, travelers are just beginning to react to perceived travelbarriers and tariffs by changing where they fly, though most of those effects have been limited to flights At the same time, a weakening of the US dollar is likely to reshape both travel flows and airline costs.While it could attract more inbound travelers, a weaker dollar would raise local currency costs for major Long-term air travel resilience Air travel demand has soared for decades, with revenue passenger kilometers growing at a 5.5%compound annual rate from 2000 to 2019 -almost twice the rate of global GDP growth. Several powerfulforces fueled that rise: global economic growth, expanding middle classes in developing countries, more Those forces will continue to power air traffic growth. Global revenue passenger kilometers are forecastto grow at a compound annual rate of 4.7% through 2030 if economic growth stabilizes and supply keepspace. Low-cost carriers hold just 25%-30% of the market in North America, Europe, and Asia and have If global economic headwinds prove temporary, as they often have, demand will not be the lilniting factorin air traffic growth. In this scenario, an economic slowdown will lead to a modest weakening of near- However, if a global economic slowdown sets in and traveler sentiment An overburdened supply chain Aircraft production and maintenance continue to lag far behind demand. Legacy fleets are operating yearspast their intended retirement as new aircraft deliveries fall short of targets (see Figure 3). Adding to the Aircraft backlogs are huge. Manufacturers are making substantial efforts to support their supply chainsbut are unable to close the gap. Disruptions and parts shortages persist, limiting the number of newaircraft built. In 2024, Boeing and Airbus grew their fleets by only 4.7%, well short of the 6.8% growth The maintenance sector is stretched even thinner. Deferred maintenance, reliability issues with newerengines, and persistent parts shortages have sharply increased backlogs and doubled turnaround times. There are several underlying causes: Critical raw materials are in short supply, used serviceable material(USM) is less plentiful given fewer aircraft retirements, and the industry suffers from ongoing acute Regulatory and trade shift challenges Regulatory and trade uncertainties worsen supply chain constraints. The Aerospace IndustriesAssociation (AIA) has warned that new tariffs will have negative impacts on the US aerospace sector.Historically exempt under the WTO Agreement on Trade in Civil Aircraft of 1980, civil aircraft and parts Tariff uncertainty is creating near-term volatility in airline demand and exacerbating supply chainproblems. Commercial aerospace supply chains are inherently global with complex parts flows, and any Navigating the Next Decade of Air Travel Delta paused Airbus deliveries pending US-EU trade clarity, and China temporarily refused to acceptBoeing 737s. One major US supplier, Howmet Aerospace, cited force majeure, allowing it to pausedeliveries on any tariff-affected products, highlighting just how quickly trade tensions can disrupt restrictions on rare earth metals could create bottlenecks in areas like coatings, critical for Constraints on air travel This combination of challenges could alter demand, constrain capacity, and change the underlyiingnature of airline fleets. The shortfall of new aircraft deliveries means ai