互联网与媒体：AI补充现有强势服务，关注Recruit、LY、乐天、Mercari、Kakaku.com的盈利增长、股东回报及重组潜力

AI to Complement StrongExisting Services: HighlightRecruit, LY, Rakuten, Mercari,Kakaku.com for EarningsGrowth, Shareholder Returns,Restructuring Potential April 6, 2026 06:31 AM GMT Key Takeaways Despite concerns about AI-driven disruption, companies' sales/profit growthoutlooks remain solid; however, industry stocks have underperformed. We believe AI will act mainly as a complement to, rather than a substitute for,existing platforms, driving traffic to them. As equity markets perceive the advantages of incumbent players and thelimitations of AI, excessive concerns about disruption are likely to ease gradually. OW: Recruit, Kakaku.com, MonotaRO, Rakuten, LY (LINE Yahoo), Mercari. Stock underperformance factors: AI disruption concerns:Internet servicecompanies have underperformed TOPIX by ~20% YTD, though by less than IT/software peers. Despite solid revenue and profit growth outlooks and late-stagegrowth business models, equity markets remain highly focused on the risk of AIdisrupting existing models. In particular, concerns center on AI reshaping userinterfaces and service flows, capturing user activity within AI platforms andpotentially displacing incumbents. Reality: AI as traffic driver and complement, not substitute:Actual AI-ledtransactions remain limited, and are mainly complementary to existing platforms. Ine-commerce, AI supports search and recommendations to direct users to EC sites,where transactions are ultimately completed. Similarly, in OTA business, AI primarilyfunctions as a traffic channel rather than replacing existing operators. Structural advantages; recognition of AI limitations:AI is not replacing existinginternet services yet, due to the complexity of user activity. E-commerce involvesdynamic processes—price comparisons, product evaluation, cart adjustments,bundled discounts, cancellations—that require sophisticated service design beyondcurrent AI capabilities. Some early initiatives by major AI players in EC and OTAbusinesses have already been scaled back, highlighting these limitations. As marketsincreasingly recognize this, excessive disruption concerns may gradually ease. Order of Preference Summary OW Recommendations Recruit Earnings outlook:We forecast 10% EBITDA CAGR, 18% EPS CAGR (3-year) and maintainour OW rating. In addition to good earnings visibility, Recruit has capacity for large-scaleshareholder returns. In HR Tech, penetration of high value-added products is driving ARPUexpansion, supporting double-digit revenue growth. Company-wide margin improvement isalso continuing through efficient operations, with operating leverage driving profit growthat a faster pace than revenue. Capital policy and shareholder returns: A strong balance sheet and robust cash flowprovide ample room for sustained share buybacks. With balanced growth investments andshareholder returns, we think improved capital efficiency supports shareholder valuecreation. Stock overhang factors:Macro environment: Sluggish labor mobility in the US is a near-term overhang on the stock. As HR Tech earnings are partly linked to labor marketconditions, macro uncertainty weighs on sentiment, although the impact on the structuralgrowth story is limited. LY Growth strategy and earnings outlook:We forecast 11% EBITDA CAGR, 14% EPS CAGR(3-year) and maintain our OW rating. Alongside continued expansion of the LINE mediabusiness, LY is shifting from a GMV-focused EC strategy to one focused on monetization.We expect key areas to deliver strong revenue and profit growth, supporting continueddouble-digit profit growth at the group level. Earnings visibility remains high, and theoutlook is good. Evolving revenue model and growth drivers:In addition to improved EC profitability,expansion of the LINE platform in media is creating new monetization opportunities. Theplatform's dominant user reach versus other social media, combined with serviceexpansion and monetization on LINE, is driving revenue growth. Risks: Intensifying competition in AI advertising:Accelerating ad monetization by majorAI players could introduce new competitive pressures. However, LY has previouslyadapted to changes in the competitive landscape, such as the rise of video advertising,suggesting a potential degree of resilience to AI-driven competition as well. Rakuten Growth and business foundation:We forecast 16% EBITDA CAGR (3-year) and remainOW. Rakuten’s core businesses—EC, mobile, and fintech—are all expanding steadily,supporting solid group-level EBITDA growth. Its competitiveness remains strong, withstable growth in EC and fintech underpinning the earnings base. Challenges: Mobile losses and undervalued business portfolio: Ongoing operatinglosses in the mobile segment and a heavy interest burden are keeping NP in negative territory. As a result, the group’s overall valuation does not fully reflect the value of itsindividual businesses, with a persistent discount even on a SOTP basis. Potential catalyst: Value unlocked through r