2040年未来作战环境

Future Operating March 2026 Assistant Chief of the Defence Staff Conditions of release The content of this publication does not represent official policy orstrategy of the UK government or that of the MOD. Authorisation Defence Futures is responsible for publishing strategic trends and concepts.If you wish to quote our publications as reference material in other work,you should confirm with our editors whether the particular publication and Email:MSHQ-FFD-Digital@mod.gov.uk Copyright This publication is UK Ministry of Defence © Crown copyright (2026) includingall images (unless otherwise stated). If contacting Defence Intellectual Property Rights for authority to releaseoutside of the UK government and MOD, the Patent Officer should be Crown copyright and Merchandise Licensing, Defence Intellectual PropertyRights, Central Legal Services, MOD Abbey Wood South, Poplar 2 #2214,Bristol, BS34 8JH. Email:DIPR-CC@mod.gov.uk Distribution Our publications are available internally to MOD staff from the Leidos Formsand Publications Team using the Millie Online Portal. Email:leidos-formspublications@teamleidos.mod.uk Digital versions of our publications can be viewed and downloaded ondefnet at:https://modgovuk.sharepoint.com/sites/IntranetCSOC/SitePages/ This publication is also available at:https://www.gov.uk/government/groups/defence-futures-and-force-design-ffd Foreword TheStrategic Defence Review 2025(SDR 25) reminds us that the security environment is unpredictable: ‘the UK faces multiple, direct threats to itssecurity, prosperity, and democratic values. The world itself is beset byvolatility and deep uncertainty.’ Moreover, asGlobal Strategic Trends: Outto 2055(GST 7) highlights, the forces shaping the coming decades will becontradictory in both time and place. Yet there is still significant value andimportance in understanding how the future could plausibly transpire and,more specifically for the defence sector, understanding the sort of future Furthermore, publishing this work supports informed dialogue and broadengagement across government, industry, academia and wider society.Its release is also intended to deepen collaboration and encourage awhole-of-society approach to strategic preparedness, another clear themeof SDR 25. As the operating environments of tomorrow will be defined bycontinual change and complexity – conditions no single actor can navigate Air Vice-Marshal Mark Ridgway DBAAssistant Chief of the Defence Staff, Futures and Force Design Contents Foreword................................. Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .7 Purpose.............................7Structure and navigation.....................7 Section 1 – Drivers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Section 2 – Actors........................Section 3 – Relationships. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .Section 4 – Characteristics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Part 2 – Disruptors............................ 29Section 1 – A snapshot of threat multipliers. . . . . . . . . . .29Section 2 – A snapshot of novel and disruptive capabilities. . .32Key takeaways. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .37Good bets............................37Probable bets. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .40 Glossary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Introduction Purpose A complex set of global dynamics that influence, counteract or accelerate eachother is rapidly changing the global security environment.Future OperatingEnvironments 2040(FOEs 2040) aims to describe these likely characteristicsand dynamics. Pinpointing when specific change will emerge in any long-term It is designed primarily to provide evidence-led insights to inform UK Defence’spolicy and strategy direction, future force design and capability strategy.FOEs 2040 is also intended to be useful for Defence’s partners – includingacross the UK government, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, academiaand industry. More broadly, it forms part of the Military Strategic Headquarters’ Structure and navigation FOEs 2040 is organised into two primary sections with the key takeawayspresented at the end of the publication. These are outlined below. a.Part 1 – Future Operating Environments 2040.Part 1 focuses on thekey factors and actors that will shape the future operating environments b.Part 2 – Disruptors.Part 2 examines the disruptors that are expectedto transform the conduct of operations. The analysis is split into threat c.Key takeaways.The key takeaways are summarised aseither ‘good’,‘probable’ or ‘high impact, low probability’. These ‘bets’ reflect the three (1)Good bets.Good bets are characteristics that appear consistentlyacross all the different futures examined. Their recurrence suggests that (2)Probable bets.Probable bets are characteristics that appear inmany of the futures, being noticeably prevalent and impactful. Theseare areas