美国国防：特朗普1.5万亿美元预算？大量投入太空、舰船和导弹——但最终能通过多少？

US Defense: Trump's $1.5 trillion budget? Lots for space, ships,and missiles - But, what will ultimately pass? Douglas S. Harned, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8430douglas.harned@bernsteinsg.com The Trump administration released its proposal for the 2027 budget on Friday, April 3rd. Thetotal proposed 2027 budget is $1.45 trillion for DoD ($1.5bn including DoE nuclear) - upfrom 1.0 trillion for FY2025. $350bn of the budget is targeted to come from reconciliationfunding, which can avoid the 60 vote threshold in the Senate. Non-defense funding is setat $660bn, which is a 10% cut, which hits every non-defense department/agency exceptNASA. The character of the budget differs from the past, with 68% of the discretionary Adrien Rabier+44 20 7676 6820adrien.rabier@bernsteinsg.comJennifer Ma+1 917 344 8408jennifer.ma@bernsteinsg.comSpecialist Sales We do not expect this budget to make it through Congress. It should have no Democraticsupport, given cuts to health care and other non-defense spending. We expect someRepublican deficit hawks to also oppose this budget. Economic assumptions (GDP growth, Steve Song+1 917 344 8401steve.song@bernsteinsg.com For contractors, this budget proposal is biased toward investment, with Procurement up101% and RDT&E up 63%. This is occurring alongside a potential $200bn supplementalproposal. If it were actually possible to move these funding proposals through Congress,this would be highly positive for defense stocks, as it would represent the largest defense The highest percentage Procurement increase is for the Army (up 113%), with MissileProcurement the key driver. Navy Procurement is up 58% with increases across areas(aircraft (BA, LMT), shipbuilding (GD, HII), missiles (RTX, LMT)). Air Force procurementis up 50%, with Space Force the biggest source of upside, but also large increases formissiles (AMRAAM (RTX), JATM, JASSM (both LMT)). On RDT&E, Space Force doubles, The big question here is where the budget settles out and when. These are related. Ifpassage is delayed and Democrats take the House or Senate in November, reconciliationwill not happen - and there will be pushback against the appropriations bill. The goal is tofinish the 2027 bills in each chamber before the August recess. But, that has not happenedfor many years. In an election year, everything is harder, as members focus on campaigning.We expect to ultimately see additions to defense spending, which tends to be supported The emphasis on space, shipbuilding, and missiles is not a surprise. Space is where wesee the most upside (LHX, NOC, LMT, BA). Shipbuilding increases can be helpful. But, thequestion will be about how the money turns into actual throughput. On missiles, we do notexpect much change from frameworks that are in place for LMT and RTX (and solid rocket BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS The rising defense budget is positive for all US defense contractors. If one assumes the Pentagon gets what it wants throughthe combination of its own request and reconciliation funds added for 2026, we see this as better than expectations. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernstein Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY This research publication covers six or more companies. For valuation methodology and other company disclosures:Please visit: https://bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.Or, you can also write to the Director of Compliance, Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, 245 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10167. RISKS This research publication covers six or more companies. For risks and other company disclosures:Please visit: https://bernstein-autonomous.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action.Or, you can also write to the Director of Compliance, Bernstein Institutional Services LLC, 245 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10167. RATINGS DEFINITIONS, BENCHMARKS AND DISTRIBUTION EQUITY RATINGS DEFINITIONS Bernstein brand The Bernstein brand rates stocks based on forecasts of relative performance for the next 12 months versus the S&P 500 f