市场能否在没有订单的情况下生存？不再披露订单——波动性降低

Maintain Rating: BUY | PO: 1'598 EUR / Price: 1,188 EUR Nomorebookingsdisclosure-lowervolatility 02 April 2026 ASML will report on April 15beforethe market opens.This will mark the first set ofresults ASML willnot disclosebookings.We have fieldeda lot of questions on thesubjectas investorswonder.how othermarketparticipants willgetconvictionwithoutthis historically important indicator,We highlight that none of ASML's US peers disclosebookings foryears,whichhas not prevented them fromoutperformingASMLAs suchwe think investors will progressivelyget comfortable with itas the stock's volatility will Equity Didier Scemama >?Research AnalystMLIUK)+4420 79956751didier.scemana@bofacam '26guidelikelyraised;FullEUVcapacityexiting27E Wearebroadly in-line withcss forQ1and Q2onsales and1% ahead on EPS.As suchwethink the marketwill focus on CY26Eoutlook upgrade.Wewouldexpectthe companytonarrow its revenuegrowthguide from+4% to+20%to +11%to+20% (in-line at themid-pointswithcssat+15.5%)withunchanged51-53%GM.Weremainabovecssat+18.5%on betterDUVrevenues driven byimprovingArfi supplywith GMat52.6%.Wecontinue to believethat ASMLwill be close tofull EUV capacity by 4Q27Ewith 22 toolASML's model (160kwspm/year 2025-2030) and the expectation that 4F2will see amodest increasein EUv layers (fromflatpreviously,whichwould have created a cliff intool demand in 28E).As such we think ASML could signal the need to increase capacityin CY28Eto>100 tools.FurtherwethinkthatASML'spublicprogressonhigh-NA(80%availabilityend-25;90%byend-26E)is likelytobeenoughforTSMC and SK Hynix todrive high-NA demand in 28E (15 tools - see inside for details), essentially extendingthecycleinto28E,Weare11-14%abovecssonCY27/28EEPSat43/50. Oliver Wong>errch AnalystMLI(UK)oliver.wong2@bofa.cam Amelia Banks>>Research AnalystMLIUK)umeliabanksc@bola.com Stock Data ExpectCMDin4Q25-2030guidelikelyraised Given historical cadence of a CMD every twoyears in Q4we would expect ASMLto hostan event later this year and raise its 2030 revenue guidance to 54-64bn,up from 44-6Obn,translatingintoanEPSrangeof53-74(BofA67.5). See lastpageforglossary >>Employed byanon-US affiliate of BofAS and isnotregistered/qualified as aresearchanalystunder the FINRA rules. Refer to"Other Impartant Disclosures' for information on certain BofA Securities entities that takeresponsibilityfor the infomation herein in particular jurisdictions BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict ofinterest that could affect the objectivity of this report Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 9 to 12.Analyst Certification on page 7.PriceObjectiveBasis/Riskonpage7.12954848 Timestamp:02April202606:46AMEDT CompanySectorSemicenductarCajital Equipment Company Description ASMLsthemarketleaderinlithographyoolsacriticapartof cheseniconductormanufacturing process enablingMoore's lawThecinpanybenefits fromtechinokcgytransitions as wel as new additions in leading edge logicand mernoty chip capacity. ASML currently has a marketshare ofdoseto 90%,whichsamonopoly innext.generationEUv lithography Investment Rationale ASML.has industrialised next gen EUV (Extreme Ulitraviolet)Iithography tchnoagy, which webelieve wllundepinmay of the disruptivetrends of this decadeOur Buy ratingispredicatedon1)ourlong-temforecastscallingfordouble-dngitrevenueCAGR and upper-teen EPS CAGRgiverthenext 5 years,and 2) potential upsidetoASME's 2030targets from Aland strongerindustydemard High-NAunitdeliveriesthrough2028 Exhibit3:Foundry/Logicremain the largestend-marketforEUVtools Exhibit 4:2030EPS sensitivity High-NAunitdeliveriesthrough2028 Exhibit3:Foundry/Logicremain the largestend-marketforEUVtools Exhibit 4:2030EPS sensitivity Exhibit5:Maln300mmfab projects Glossary: Al:Artificial IntelligenceDRAM:DynamicRandom-AccessMemoryEUV:Extreme UltravioletIBM:InstalledBaseManagementSemicap:SemiconductorCapital EquipmentTSMC:TaiwanSemiconductorManufacturingCompanyViS:VanguardNXP:NXPSemiconductorESMC:European Semiconductor Manufacturing CompanyTSV:Through-Silicon ViaHBM:High Bandwidth MemoryHVM: High Volume MemoryJASM:JapanAdvancedSemiconductorManufacturingSMiC:SemiconductorManufacturing International Corp.NA:Numerical Aperture Priceobjectivebasis&risk ASMLHoldingN.V.(ASMLF/ASML) WehavesetaPOof1,598(S1,886fortheADR).Weusea30.0xCY27EEV/EBITDAtoderive ourPO,within itshistoricalrangeof 18xto34xandaboveits5-yearhistoricalmedlan of 26x given accelerated EPS growth 1)Higher-than-expecteddemandfor EUVand DUVmachines2)Higher-than-expected grossmargins on EUVmachines and servicesand higher capital intensity per wafer. Downside risks to our PO are: 1)Delaysin rampingvolumeshipmentsof EuVmachines3)Weaker-than-expectedSemi Capexdrivenbymacroslowdown/oversupply4) China export restrictions Analyst Certification I, Did