日本市场策略：企业谨慎态度与通胀压力

Corporate caution and inflationary The Tankan revealed a somewhat cautious outlook and capexplans, along with cost-push pressure and tightness inpetrochemicals. We marginally lower our 2026 GDP forecast,but stick to our April rate hike call given BoJ communications. Japan Research Division Naohiko Baba+ 81 3 4530 1378naohiko.baba@barclays.comBSJL, Japan Japan Economic Research Department Takashi Onoda+81 3 4530 5152takashi.onoda@barclays.comBSJL, Japan Japan FX and Rates ResearchDepartmentShinichiro Kadota+81 3 4530 1374 Forecasts Japan Economy Lhamsuren Sharavdemberel+81 3 4530 1881lhamsuren.sharavdemberel@barclays.comBSJL, Japan Corporate caution and inflationary pressure. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6 The Tankan revealed a somewhat cautious outlook and capex plans, along with cost pressuresand tightness in petrochemicals linked to the Middle East conflict. We marginally lower our 2026GDP growth forecast, but stick to our call for an April hike given BoJ's communications. Ayao Ehara+ 81 3 4530 1379ayao.ehara@barclays.com Japan FX and Rates Strategy Decomposition of JGB drivers using the yen-rates FFV model. . . . . . . . 17 Analyzing recent yen rate moves using FFV model based on short-term market fluctuations, wefind that oil and overseas rates drove rises thru most of March, but that month-end moves mayhave been driven by domestic factors, suggesting scope for a further near-term rally if Middle Week Ahead Japan Data Review and Preview . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21 Forecasts Outlook by Sector Summary of our current forecasts and outlook Japan Economics Naohiko Baba BSJL, Japan | Takashi Onoda BSJL, Japan Outlook for the economy and prices (last updated 19 March) Real GDP growth in Q4 25 was revised up to 1.3% in the second estimate, reflecting strongcapex, among other factors. Looking ahead, a rebound in inventory investment is expectedfollowing the large negative contribution seen this time around. Furthermore, housinginvestment, which fell sharply due to institutional factors in Q3, is likely to recover. Companiesare actively investing to address labor shortages and rebuild supply chains in response to On the price front, we expect CPI inflation excluding perishables (core) to ease as a trend, albeitwith fluctuations, in the near term due mainly to declines (y/y baseeffects)in goods, especiallyfood. However, inflation is increasingly sticky, suggesting any deceleration will be moremoderate than we previously expected. Furthermore, services inflation has become increasinglyrobust as the dynamic synergy between wages and prices strengthens on the back of Monetary policy (last updated 19 March) At its March meeting, the BoJ kept policy rates unchanged at 0.75%, as widely expected.However, the January Outlook Report included significant upward revisions, particularly to theinflation outlook, and the Summary of Opinions contained a series of notably hawkish remarkswarning about JPY depreciation. The statement from the March Meeting gave an impression Reflecting these developments, we still believe the BoJ will hike in April and October 2026 andin April 2027, taking the terminal rate to 1.50%. Japan FX and Rates Strategy Shinichiro Kadota BSJL, Japan | Lhamsuren Sharavdemberel BSJL, Japan |Ayao Ehara BSJL, Japan Trade recommendations (last updated 19 March) We recommend 1) 1y1y/5y5y USDJPY xccy basis flatteners1in anticipation of USDJPY xccy basis receiving demand stemming from the US-Japan investment deal; 2) paying 1y1y EURJPY xccybasis as a carry trade2; 3) JGB 2y/7y steepeners as a carry trade under risk premium stability following the LDP's landslide victory in the lower house election3 4; 4) 2y/10y swap steepenersto hedge the risk of "high-pressure economy" markets5; 5) JGB ASW 10y/30y box6based on distortions on the JGB ASW curve. Summary of views (last updated 19 March) Duration Yen rates market continues to be driven primarily by the inflation risk premium, whichreemerged due to reflationist BoJ board appointments and oil price shock, reversing thestabilizationafterthe LDP's landslide victory in the lower house election in early February.Fiscal risks are also weighing on the superlong sector, as rising oil prices have prompted •10y BEI is likely to remain high, driven by elevated inflation and wage increases. The risks to•our outlook are an upside surprise to scheduled wage increases and prolonged JPY Curve/curvature In the super-long sector, LDP's landslide victory at lower-house election should lead tostabilization in risk premium. The short- to medium-term sector will likely bear-flatten We expect rates in the JPY money market to rise further with additional BoJ hikes over thecoming years. In the term market, repo rates have risen, while bills remain rich. Volatility •We are neutral on vols across the surfaceafterthe recent long-endsell-off.Volatility could•r