新兴市场季度报告：海峡风险，直接影响

Strait risks, straight implications The Iran war and surge in energy prices haveshiftedthenarrative for EM. While commodity exposures and external,fiscal and monetary policybuffersmay bring somedifferentiation,stagflationary concerns are likely to translateinto a challenging outlook for flows and overall assetperformance. Economics Christian Keller+44 (0) 20 7773 2031christian.keller@barclays.comBarclays, UK Gabriel Casillas+ 1 212 526 7814gabriel.casillas@barclays.comBCI, US Ercan Erguzel+44 (0) 20 3555 2564ercan.erguzel@barclays.comBarclays, UK Brian Tan+65 6308 5798brian.tan@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore Credit StrategyAndreas Kolbe+44 (0) 20 3134 3134andreas.kolbe@barclays.comBarclays, UK EM Economic & Strategy Outlook Jason Keene+1 212 526 7275jason.keene@barclays.comBCI, US Strait risks, straight implications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 The Iran war and surge in energy prices haveshiftedthe narrative for EM. While commodityexposures and external, fiscal and monetary policybuffersmay bring somedifferentiation,stagflationary concerns are likely to translate into a challenging outlook for flows and overallasset performance. Avanti Save, CFA+65 6308 3116avanti.save@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore EM Heat Maps A comparative overview of EM country metrics. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20 FX & EM Macro Strategy Andrea Kiguel+1 212 526 8954andrea.kiguel@barclays.comBCI, US Mitul Kotecha+ 65 6308 5439mitul.kotecha@barclays.comBarclays Bank, Singapore Thisdocument is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of theindependence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retailinvestors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for itsown account and on a discretionary basis on behalf of certain clients. Such trading interestsmay be contrary to the recommendationsofferedin this report. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 196.Completed: 25-Mar-26, 03:00 GMTReleased: 25-Mar-26, 05:00 GMTRestricted - External Emerging Asia Slow dancing in a burning room. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25If 2025 was a year oftariffs,then 2026 looks set to be a year of supply disruptions for EmergingAsia. Our base case assumes that shortages, if any, are not severe – but this is a risk thatfinancial market participants should not dismiss out of hand, in our view.EM Asia Trade Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41Emerging Europe, Middle East and AfricaPause now, act later. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88Policymakers remain in wait-and-see mode, but responses will increasingly diverge as inflationdynamics, FX stability and fiscal spacediffer,with rate hikes becoming more likely in H2 26under a $100/bbl scenario than at $85/bbl.EEMEA Trade Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94Latin AmericaCrude awakening. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .139Regional focus hasshiftedto theaftermathof the ongoing Iran conflict. Although the durationof the conflict is the main variable to factor, for now, we view theeffectas an inflationary shockrather than a shock on growth. We present a scenario with potential implications from asustained shockLatin America Trade Summary. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .143Emerging MarketsGlobal forecasts and financial indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185EM sovereign and corporate creditSummary of credit ratings. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 191 EM Economic & Strategy Outlook Strait risks, straight implications The Iran war and surge in energy prices haveshiftedthenarrative for EM. While commodity exposures and external,fiscal and monetary policybuffersmay bring somedifferentiation,stagflationary concerns are likely to translateinto a challenging outlook for flows and overall assetperformance. EconomicsChristian Keller+44 (0) 20 7773 2031christian.keller@barclays.comBarclays, UK FX & EM Macro StrategyAndrea Kiguel+1 212 526 8954andrea.kiguel@barclays.comBCI, US Local:CEE, Chile, Peru, South Africa, the Philippines and Korea stand out as vulnerable to theenergy price shock, and rates close to neutral are likely not enough to protect the FX when allthe risks are combined. If oil remains high, we think there are still upside risks in Philippinesand Chile rates, and our preferred expression in CEEMEA would be an underperformance inthe PLN. Front-end breakevens can still go higher as the shock passes through, in our view,especially in Me