地缘政治再次重塑全球能源流动

Our newforecasts reflect the expectations of a longer war The war with Iran has effectively choked off flows through the Strait of Hormuz,slashing oil and product movements from roughly 20mb/d to under 2mb/d. Whileinventories and prices have not yet fully reflected this shock—due to lags, oil still at sea,and emergency stock releases—satellite data already show stocks building in Gulfproducers and drawing rapidly in consuming countries. If disruptions persist beyond afew more weeks, the global oil supply chain risks breaking down, forcing demandrationing and triggering consequences reminiscent of, or possibly worse than, the energycrises of the 1970s. In our updated baseline forecast (seeIran war wipes out energysurplus) we now assume the war ends in 2-4 weeks and factor in a sizeable 4mn b/ddeficit in 2Q followed by an average of 2.5mn b/d deficit in 2H26, elevating the Brentcrude average for the year to $92.50/bbl. Demand rationing and the risk of extreme oil prices With limited demand alternatives to oil—especially in transportation andpetrochemicals—and only partial supply offsets from Saudi and UAE pipelines, aprolonged energy shortfall would require a forced contraction in global energy demandof 4–5% YoY. Oil prices have not yet fully adjusted because markets still expect a shortwar and are temporarily cushioned by roughly 700mn barrels from oil in transit andstrategic releases. But once these buffers fade and inventories start to draw sharply, anysigns that the conflict will go beyond 2-4 weeks or that energy assets are beingpermanently damaged could trigger a further spike in prices. Historically, we have shownthat a 1mn b/d swing in S&D balances has impacted Brent by $15-$20/bbl. Thus, an oilsupply loss of more than 10mn b/d that persists for 12 months could push up Brentcrude by $150 to $200/bbl from the prewar levels of $70/bbl. The legacy: Stockpiling, Electrification, and DiversificationIn the short-run, a key question remains what oil price will be required to bring back the return of remote work or to stop people from travelling. But beyond the near-term crisis,the war is likely to reshape energy markets structurally. Countries are poised to rebuildstrategic inventories, boosting medium-term oil demand once hostilities cease, whilesimultaneously accelerating efforts to reduce reliance on vulnerable supply routes. Thisincludes greater investment in renewables, nuclear, EVs, storage, and electrification,alongside renewed interest in coal where LNG is scarce. At the same time, both fossilfuel and clean-energy supply chains are expected to diversify geographically, as relianceon the Middle East for oil and China for renewables is increasingly seen as a strategicrisk. Geopolitics reshuffle world energy flowsagain The huge energy supply gap may force demand rationing…Since the Iran War started (seeOil slides into Pandora’s box), oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have come down to a trickle, with outbound oil vessels declining from about100 a week before the war to 0 at present (with one inbound last week) (Exhibit 3).Naturally, with most vessels not allowed to cross in and out of the Persian Gulf, crude oiland petroleum product flows have also collapsed from 20mn b/d to less than 2mn b/d.The shock has been massive, although the effect is still not fully visible in our globalcrude oil inventory tracker (Exhibit 4). This is in part due to the lagged effects involved inglobal supply chains. Even then, satellite data suggests that crude stocks are building inGulf countries and drawing in consuming countries because of this bottleneck. Exhibit3:OilflowsthroughthestraitofHormuzhavecomedownto a trickle since the war started…Weekly total inbound andoutbound crude oil tankers, tankers per week Exhibit4:…althoughtheeffectisstillnotfullyvisibleinourglobalcrude oil inventory trackerGlobaloilinventories,incloilonwater,bnbbls …and knock down global GDP while boosting inflation…Net, we estimate that the global economy has lost roughly 14-15mn b/d of crude and products during March and more than 7mn mt of LNG. Should most of these energyflows not be restored within the next two to four weeks, we believe that a breakdown ofthe global oil supply chain would be inevitable. In turn, the negative energy supply shockcould have a dramatic effect on the global economy beyond anything that financialmarkets have observed since the 1970s. Given the tight relationship between energy andGDP (Exhibit 5), a supply shock of approximately 6% of global energy that extends into2H26 or 2027 could have a very negative effect on global incomes. Moreover, previousenergy supply shocks in the 1970s had dramatic impact on global inflation (Exhibit 6),triggering huge bouts of volatility in interest rate and equity markets. Exhibit5:Given the tight relationship between energy and GDP, thesupply shock could have a big effectGlobal oil production and GDP growth (% year-on-year) US CPI and contributions by category (% year-on