埃塞俄比亚消费税政策和税率变化后的卷烟市场动态

Report December 2025 Contents 03Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………………….…04Illicit market developmentsLegal cigarette market………………………………………………………………………………………….…………………………………………………………………………………………………………08Market shares and prices…………………………………………………………………………………………………Tax revenue losses…………………………………………………………………………………………………121618Key findings…………………………………………………………………………………………….…… ThisreportisconfidentialtotheNationalTobaccoEnterprise(NTE)inEthiopiaandmaynotbepublishedordistributedwithouttheirpriorwrittenpermission. Theanalysispresentedhereisbasedoninformationprovidedbythirdparties,uponwhichOxfordEconomicsAfricahasreliedinproducingitsreportingoodfaith.Anysubsequentrevisionorupdateofthosedatawillaffecttheassessmentsandresultsshown. Introduction oOxford Economics Africa was approached by the National Tobacco Enterprise (NTE) in Ethiopia to examine the size of the illicitcigarette market in the country and to quantify the foregone tax revenues due to illicit cigarette sales. oNTE had a monopoly license for the manufacturing, selling, importing and exporting of tobacco products in Ethiopia during theperiod under investigation in this study.oAs such, the legal cigarette market comprises entirely of NTE’s domestic sales and imports by the company itself or approvedbyitand the Ethiopian Food and Drug Administration (EFDA). During the period under investigation, NTE did not import or approvecigarette imports into the country.oIllicit cigarettes are readily available in the country due to smuggling and porous borders, especially between Ethiopia andSomalia.According to NTE, a large share of the illicit brands that are prevalent in Ethiopia originate from countries such as the UAE, Yemen,Kenya, and Somaliland.oWhile Ethiopia already had a large illicit cigarette market prior to 2020, recent changes to the excise regime and the implementationof higher excise taxes have affected the country’s legal and illicit market dynamics.oWhereas excise was previously levied as an ad valorem rate based on cigarette production costs (cost of goods sold), authoritiesimplemented a new mixed excise regime early in 2020. The new excise regime consists of an ad valorem rate (based on factory gateprices) in addition to a fixed charge per pack of cigarettes. The Ethiopian government then subsequently more than doubled the fixedrate per pack of cigarettes during 2024.oAgainst this background, this study analyses how the legal and illicit market dynamics changed from 2019 (prior to the introduction ofthe new mixed excise regime) until 2025 year-to-date (YTD, January–October).oThis study also examines the size of the illicit cigarette market in the country and quantifies the foregone tax revenues duetoillicitcigarette sales. Confidential ReportDecember 2025 Illicitmarketdevelopments Legalcigarettemarket Marketshares andprices Taxrevenuelosses Two periods of aggressive excise tax hikes oEthiopia enacted comprehensive tobacco control legislation(Proclamation 1112/2019) in 2019, thereby introducing smoke-freepublic spaces; banning advertising, promotion and sponsorship;introducing regulations related to health warnings on packaging; andbanning the sale of e-cigarettes and heated tobacco products, amongstother regulations. oAuthorities then implemented a new mixed excise regime for tobaccoproducts in 2020 Q1. oThe new regime replaced the 75% ad valorem rate based on cigaretteproduction costs (cost of goods sold) with a mixed regime consisting ofan ad valorem tax in addition to a fixed charge per pack of cigarettes, asfollows: •30% ad valorem rate based on factory gate prices.•8 birr per pack (20 sticks). Sources: Oxford Economics Africa, NTE >200% oThe new regime pushed the excise burden sharply higher, with theaverage excise per pack1rising by more than 200% in 2020. Rise in excise per pack following the introduction of themixed excise regime in 2020. oExcise rates subsequently remained stable until June 2024 when thefixed rate component was lifted to 20 birr per pack. >150% oAs a result, the average excise per pack rose by more than 150%between 2023 and 2025. Rise in excise per pack after authorities raised the fixed ratecomponent in June 2024. 1.This was calculated based on the excise paid and pack volumes sold as reported by NTE. Legal cigarette volumes on the decline oThe size of the legal cigarette market2amounted to 278 million packs in2019. However, legal market volumes fell sharply following theintroduction of the new mixed excise regime. oSpecifically, legal volumes declined by 39% to 168 million packs in 2020before falling by a further 15% the following year. oLegal market volumes then rebounded during 2022-23, with exciserates having remained unchanged from those introduced under thenew mixed excise regime. oEven so, legal volumes still only reached 187 million packs in 2023, andthe legal market size was still roughly 33% smaller at this stage whencompared to the situation back in 2019. oLegal volumes