铀/核能：摆脱束缚的能源……伊朗战争是否预示着核能发展势头？

Bernstein Uranium/Nuclear: Energy without astrait(jacket)...does the Iran War herald nuclear momentum? Recent geopolitical tensions have once again highlighted how vulnerable oil and LNGmarkets are to physical disruption, as we witness ~20% of both volumes exposed.Both commodities rely on large-scale, continuous maritime transport and are thereforehighly sensitive to regional conflicts and chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz. Whileconventional energy security concerns are resurfacing, uranium is structurally different. Bob Brackett, Ph.D.+1 917 344 8422bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com Minnie Xu+1 917 344 8574minnie.xu@bernsteinsg.com Uranium is a compact, high-value and logistically flexible commodity. Global reactors onlyconsume~0.6 mln pounds per day (a few train cars!),making uranium far less exposedto acute transport disruption. In an environment where governments are re-emphasizingenergy independence, this distinction matters. Anshika Bajpai+1 917 344 8306anshika.bajpai@bernsteinsg.com Andrianto Guntoro+44 20 7676 6825andrianto.guntoro@bernsteinsg.com The hydrocarbon energy market is disrupted but uranium supply is not (Exhibit 1 &Exhibit 2). There is a disconnection between stable uranium spot and uranium stock price(Exhibit 3).Despite spot uranium holding broadly steady around the ~$85/lb range,uranium equities have sold off more sharply than broader AI-linked indices. The market istrading uranium as a risk asset rather than on fundamentals. We see evidence of a new era of demand for energy security? First Japan, nowTaiwan and maybe Australia.First in Japan and now cautiously happening in Taiwan. Inparallel, U.S. restarts, data enter driven power demand, and government involvement in fuelprocurement all point to incremental contracting demand that is not yet fully reflected inprice. In that setup, established producers with contracting leverage are best positioned tobenefit. How about US? Seeing some progress … but still waiting on $80 blnThere arereally two Japan & U.S. nuclear investment headlines to separate. The March 2026announcement was a roughly $73bln 2ndphase energy package. Separately, the October2025 Japan-U.S. strategic investment framework outlined much larger project envelopes ofover $100 bln each for Westinghouse large reactors and GEV Hitachi BWRX-300 SMRs. Where have the stocks disconnected?We continue to see a sharp distinction betweenhigh-quality producers and junior optionality names. Companies such as Cameco andKazatomprom have real production, real assets, more solid contracts, and exposure tothe entire nuclear fuel cycle, whereas many junior developers remain far more exposed tofinancing conditions, risk appetite and timeline uncertainty. Exhibit 4 shows the landscape of uranium and nuclear equities, highlightingunderperformance and valuation. Three CCJ drivers.CCJ’s current share price has retraced to levels seen around thepre-Westinghouse IPO news. We seethree potential catalysts.We also reiterate ouroutperform rating on KAP as well. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We maintain an Outperform rating on Cameco. We forecast $3.2 bln of EBITDA in 2030 and maintain our 23x multiple to arriveat a price target of $134/sh. We maintain an Outperform rating on KAPwith $88/share. We forecast KZT 1,439 bln EBITDA in 2027 and apply our mid-cycle8x multiple to arrive the target price. The growth of 27’ EBITDA is largely contributed by the growing uranium sale. DETAILS THE HYDROCARBON ENERGY MARKET IS DISRUPTED BUT URANIUM SUPPLY IS NOT! We quantify the impact, for example on LNG: Global LNG: Qatar LNG shut down and the impact on energy With the close of the Strait of Hormuz and the damage-related shut down of LNG capacity in Qatar, the LNG history has thelargest supply disruption, our team assume a 48MTPA reducntion in output this year, whichimplies a 50% of annual output. EXHIBIT 1:With LNG supply from Qatar and the UAE disrupted, we see little scope for incremental LNG capacityadditions this year, widening the supply/demand gap. We quantify the impact, for example on oil: Bernstein Energy: One month in and no way out On the contrary, uranium is highly dense, high in value per unit of volume, and can move by truck, rail, sea and, in niche cases,even air. This does not mean uranium is immune to geopolitics, but the risk looks very different. Mine supply is concentrated, withKazakhstan, Canada and Namibia accounting for about 39%, 24% and 12% of 2024 global mine production. Importantly, the sourcing of uranium carries much lower risk that hydrocarbons and thus the generation of energy(electricity) is lower risk. One potential supply constraint for uranium mining is sulphuric acid.Over 55% of global uranium production comesfrom in-situ recovery (ISR), which requires sulphuric acid. KAP has announced that approximately 800 kt per year of sulphuricacid nameplate capacity will be ramped up. From 2027, KAP is expected to have1.5 mln tonnes of in-house su