舜宇光学2025财年：利润率韧性与市场份额提升，目标价76港元

Sunny Optical Technology Group Co Ltd Shirley Yang, CFA+852 2123 2660shirley.yang@bernsteinsg.com Ethan Xu+852 2123 2634ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com Price Target 2382.HK 76.00 HKD(88.00OLD) Sunny Optical FY2025: Margin resilience, and market share gain.PT = HK$76 2025 results were in line with preliminary numbers.Total revenue grew 13% YoY, GMimproved by +1.4ppts YoY to 21.6%, broadly in line with consensus.HandsetGM increasedto 15% (vs. 13% in 2024), fueled by higher mix of high-end products (periscope lens/modulerev. +21%/56% YoY; hybrid lens revenue nearly doubled).Autosegment that carries higherGM outgrew the corp. average (+21% YoY).XRrevenue fell 7% YoY, but margin increased to20% on higher AI glasses mix. 2026 smartphone business outlook is better than feared.Management guides 5–10%revenue growth despite a potential mid-teens market shipment decline, targeting lens GM flatYoY (25–30%) and module GM ≥8% (slightly below our estimate). This solid outlook is likelydriven by new project wins at Samsung, Apple, and Huawei, in our view. Overseas smartphonerevenue is guided to double. As announced in Jan-2026, Sunny plans to spin off and list itsautobusiness on HKEX. While no guidance was given, we model double-digit revenue growth forboth lens and module.XRremains soft this year due to limited new launches. Overall mgmt.expects 2026 revenue and OP to grow by at least 7%. CPO/NPO projects could offer upside from 2H27 at the earliest, in our view.Similarto Largan, Sunny is exploring optical connectivity opportunities in AI datacenters. We believeoptical leaders like Sunny could participate in parts such as micro-lenses, prisms, coatings,and other passive components (CPO Primer). However, commercialization will take time givenhigher product complexity and a different ecosystem. We forecast Sunny Optical to deliver 8%/22% revenue/OP CAGR from 2025-27, drivenby share gains for overseas customers and rising ADAS penetration. We expect corporate GMto hold c. 20% this year, and rise 1ppt in 2027 as memory pressure eases. vs. old model, we trimGM this year on a softer market outlook. Excluding one-offs in 2025, we model EPS CAGR of14% till 2027.Overall, while weak sentiment towards consumer electronics may persistin short term, Sunny offers attractive long-term upside, in our view. Investment Implications With EPS growth (exl. one-ff) moderating from 37% last year to flat/31% in 2026/2027, weuse 17x P/E (old 20x) and apply it to 2026-27 avg. EPS of RMB3.9, PT=HK$76.Outperform. DETAILS 2025 EARNINGS RESULTS 2025 results were in line with preliminary numbers.Total revenue grew 13% YoY, GM improved by +1.4ppts YoY to 21.6%,broadly in line with consensus.HandsetGM increased to 15% (vs. 13% in 2024), fueled by higher mix of high-end products(periscope lens/module rev. +21%/56% YoY; hybrid lens revenue nearly doubled).Autosegment that carries higher GM outgrewthe corp. average (+21% YoY).XRrevenue fell 7% YoY, but margin increased to 20% on higher AI glasses mix. 2026 smartphone business outlook is better than feared.Management guides 5–10% revenue growth despite a potentialmid-teens market shipment decline, targeting lens GM flat YoY (25–30%) and module GM ≥8% (slightly below our estimate). Thissolid outlook is likely driven by new project wins at Samsung, Apple, and Huawei, in our view. Overseas smartphone revenue isguided to double. As announced in Jan-2026, Sunny plans to spin off and list itsautobusiness on HKEX. While no guidance wasgiven, we model double-digit revenue growth for both lens and module.XRremains soft this year due to limited new launches.Overall mgmt. expects 2026 revenue and OP to grow by at least 7%. CPO/NPO projects could offer upside from 2H27 at the earliest, in our view.Similar to Largan, Sunny is exploring opticalconnectivity opportunities in AI datacenters. We believe optical leaders like Sunny could participate in parts such as micro-lenses,prisms, coatings, and other passive components (CPO Primer). However, commercialization will take time given higher productcomplexity and a different ecosystem. EXHIBIT 6:...vehicle segment accounts for 27% ofcompany's total gross profit Sunny Optical Gross Profit Mix (2025) MODEL UPDATE We model Sunny Optical to grow its revenue/operating profit by 8%/22% CAGR from 2025 to 2027, fueled by marketshare gains in handset and secular growth of auto lens and modules driven by ADAS penetration. For 2026, we adjusted up ourrevenue projection with increased the ASP of handset products and market share gain in overseas market (likely driven by Appleand Samsung). In 2025-2027, we expect Sunny to grow its top line by 8% CAGR with auto outgrowing the corporate average. We projectcorporate GM to stay ~20% despite soaring memory price in 2026, driven by higher mix from high-margin auto products and high-end handset products, and grow by 1ppt in 2027 as consumer electronic recover with easing memory price pressure. Excludingone-off investment gain of RM