您的浏览器禁用了JavaScript(一种计算机语言,用以实现您与网页的交互),请解除该禁用,或者联系我们。 [巴克莱银行]:采矿设备:贵金属与工业金属截然不同 - 发现报告

采矿设备:贵金属与工业金属截然不同

机械设备 2026-03-31 巴克莱银行 阿丁
报告封面

Precious and industrial metals arean ocean apart It is NOT a mining Super Cycle, it is a gold-driven cycle. Goldcapex/exploration /unit opex to grow 23%/>30%/>15% in 26.Industrial metals to see MSD growth, with Li down DD, & nogrowth in bulks. Key OW: EPIA/SAND (30-40% gold exp.),UW METSO (>20% bulks & Li exp.). U/G FLS to EWafterpull-back. European Capital GoodsNEUTRALUnchanged European Capital GoodsVlad Sergievskii+44 (0)20 7116 1117vlad.sergievskii@barclays.comBarclays, UK George Featherstone, CFA+44 (0)20 3555 8585george.featherstone@barclays.comBarclays, UK SAND/EPIA are best placed to grow; FLS u/g to EW:We are NOT in a mining Super Cycleenvironment (when spending on all big commodities accelerates), but in a gold-driven cycleinstead. The gap between capex growth rates for gold and industrial metals is the highest in 10years. Industrial metals grow MSD, while gold capex is set to increase by c23% this year (withexploration up >30% and unit opex up >15%). This drives our clear preference for gold-exposedEpirocandSandvik(30-40% exposure), and we expect both names to deliver DD top-line andorder growth this year. Downstream will lack gold exposure (15-18%) and is unlikely to growbeyond MSDs. We seeMETSO(UW) as most vulnerable due to greater reliance on large coppergreenfields, backlog exposure to projects at risk of re-phasing (in Pakistan and Middle East), andelevated 21x PE'26 valuation multiple. We upgradeFLSto EW, following c25% share pricecorrection, as we now see more reasonable valuation (16x PE'27E) better aligned with morebalanced strategy and improving FCF profile. Timothy Lee, CFA+44 (0)20 7773 6879timothy.lee@barclays.comBarclays, UK Mining capex set to rise 8% in 2026, the fastest growth in 3 years...Following the release ofthe majority of FY26 spending budgets from the largest listed mining companies, we see globalmining capex growing 8% this year; the biggest annual increase in 3 years. Capex is set to reacha post Super Cycle peak, but remain c17% below all-time high spending of 2013, as large coppergreenfields are yet to materialise. ...driven by >20% increase in gold capex...We see gold capex rising by 23% this year, andreaching the ATH level of 2012. With particularly favourable project economics, robust cash flowgeneration and the fragmented (less disciplined) structure of the industry, we expect gold capexto continue growing in 2027 as well (historical lag between peak gold price and peak capex in2-3 years). ...industrial metals to see a very moderate 3% growth.In contrast to prevailing marketperceptions, we see only modest, ‘mid-cycle’ - type growth across the industrial complex. Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of itsaffiliatesdoes and seeks to do business with companiescovered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have aconflict of interest that couldaffectthe objectivity of this report. Investors should consider thisreport as only a single factor in making their investment decision. This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts basedoutside the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 17.Completed: 30-Mar-26, 09:53 GMTReleased: 31-Mar-26, 03:00 GMTRestricted - External Copper is set for faster HSD capex growth in 2026,offsetby no growth in bulk commodities andbig DD decline in lithium. Average listed gold company set to increase exploration by >30%...Global exploration (50%+ driven by gold) spending remained stagnant for the best part of 3 years, but announcementsfrom listed gold companies point to >30% average growth in 2026. Given that the trend in theindustry is increasingly to 'outsource' exploration to junior gold miners, we believe that totalexploration growth could be even higher. EPIA is best placed to benefit with its leading surfacedrilling rigoffering. ...while unit operating costs set to rise by >15%.We also see strong prospects foraftermarketgrowth acceleration for gold-exposed mining equipment companies (EPIA and SAND). Listedgold companies guided for an average unit opex inflation to approach high teens in 2026, andthose forecasts do not incorporate any material increase in fuel costs (yet). This increase ispartially driven by higher royalties and revenue-based taxation, but also clearly points to a clear‘lower-grading’ of gold producers (common upcycle behaviour), which is particularly favourablefor mining equipment utilisation andaftermarketintensity. Upgrading FLS to EW; PT 490 DKK.We upgrade FLS to EW, as its strategy becomes morebalanced (between growth & margins), cash flows set to improve(aftera prolonged period ofweak cash conversion), Latam (stronghold for FLS) further gains importance on the globalmining capex map, and valuation looks more reasonable (16x PE'27E) following c25% pull-backin the share price since mid-Feb (vs SXNP down 11%). Accounting in