高盛策略师预计未来十年美股表现将逊于所有同类市场

Goldman Strategists See US StocksLagging All Peers Next Decade ⾼盛策略师预计未来⼗年美股表现将逊于所有同类市场 Peter OppenheimerPhotographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg 彼得·奥本海默摄影师：迈克尔·内格尔/彭博社 ByMichael Msika作者：迈克尔·姆⻄卡November 12, 2025 at 7:15 PM GMT+8 彭博AI要点提炼 Peter Oppenheimer and his team expect US equities to keeplagging for the next decade, with the S&P 500 to achieve annual returns of 6.5% in the coming 10 years. 彼得·奥本海默及其团队预测，未来⼗年美国股市将持续表现不佳，标普500指数未来⼗年的年回报率预计仅为6.5%。 Emerging markets are projected to be strongest, at 10.9% ayear, driven by strong earnings growth in China and India,while Asia excluding-Japan is seen as the second-bestperformer. 受中国和印度强劲盈利增⻓的推动，新兴市场预计将成为表现最强劲的地区，年回报率达10.9%，⽽除⽇本外的亚洲市场则被视为表现第⼆好的地区。 The strategists recommend that investors "diversify beyondthe US, with a tilt toward emerging markets" due to elevatedstock valuations and a expected convergence of earningsgrowth globally next year. 鉴于美股估值过⾼以及预计明年全球盈利增⻓将趋于收敛，策略师们建议投资者"分散投资⾄美国以外地区，并侧重新兴市场"。 The Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategist who correctlypredicted Wall Street’s underperformance this year expectsUS equities to keep lagging for the next decade. 这位曾准确预测今年华尔街表现不佳的⾼盛集团策略师预计，未来⼗年美国股市将继续落后于其他市场。 Peter Oppenheimerand his team recommended thatinvestors increase diversification beyond the US as elevatedstock valuations put a lid on gains. They expect the S&P 500to achieve annual returns of 6.5% in the coming 10 years, theweakest among all regions. Emerging markets are projected to be strongest, at 10.9% a year. 彼得·奥本海默及其团队建议投资者扩⼤在美国以外的多元化配置，因过⾼的股票估值将限制收益。他们预计标普500指数未来⼗年年均回报率仅6.5%，在所有地区中表现最弱；⽽新兴市场预计将以10.9%的年均涨幅领跑。 US Equities Seen Trailing Other Regions Over NextDecade 未来⼗年美股表现或落后于其他地区 Emerging markets to provide highest total returns 新兴市场有望提供最⾼总回报 Annual total returns in dollar terms以美元计算的年度总回报 After a decade of constantly superior performance, driven bya surge in technology stocks and the craze for artificialintelligence, the S&P 500 has lagged behind global peerssignificantly this year. The benchmark has climbed 16%,compared with the 27% rally in a worldwide MSCI Inc. index that excludes the US. 受科技股暴涨和⼈⼯智能热潮推动，标普500指数在历经⼗年领跑后，今年表现显著落后于全球同业。该基准指数仅上涨16%，⽽摩根⼠丹利资本国际公司(MSCI Inc.)编制的除美国外全球指数涨幅达27%。 “Diversify beyond the US, with a tilt toward emergingmarkets,” Oppenheimer and his team wrote in a note. “Weexpect higher nominal GDP growth and structural reforms tofavor EM, while AI’s long-term benefits should be broad-based rather than confined to US technology.” 奥本海默团队在研报中写道："应布局美国以外市场，并侧重新兴市场。我们预计更⾼的名义GDP增速和结构性改⾰将利好新兴市场，⽽⼈⼯智能的长期效益应具有普遍性，不会仅限于美国科技⾏业。" In the coming years, the strategists expect emerging-marketgains to be driven by strong earnings growth in China andIndia. Asia excluding-Japan is seen as the second-bestperformer with a 10.3% annual return. Japan is set to achieve8.2%, underpinned by earnings growth and policy-ledimprovements in investor payouts. Europe is expected tohand investors a 7.1% annual return. 未来⼏年，策略师预计新兴市场的增长将由中国和印度强劲的盈利增长推动。除⽇本外的亚洲地区被视为表现第⼆佳的市场，年回报率预计达10.3%。⽇本在盈利增长和政策驱动的投资者回报改善⽀撑下，年回报率预计为8.2%。欧洲市场预计将为投资者带来7.1%的年回报率。 International Stocks Outperform US Peers国际股市表现超越美股 MSCI ACWI ex-US set for largest outperformance since 2009MSCI除美国外全球指数料创2009年以来最⼤领先幅度 Oppenheimer, Goldman’s chief global equity strategist, earlylast year warned that US stocks were starting to look tooexpensive and began advocating fora shiftinto long-lagginginternational markets. ⾼盛⾸席全球股票策略师奥本海默早在去年初就警告美股估值过⾼，并开始建议投资者转向长期表现落后的国际市场。 The S&P 500 is trailing most regions in dollar terms in 2025,with earnings growth expected to converge globally nextyear, leaving the benchmark looking less attractive. Itsforward price-to-earnings ratio has surged to 23, equivalent to the post-pandemic peak and within reach of the record hitprior to the dot-com bubble. 以美元计算，2025年标普500指数表现将落后多数地区。随着明年全球盈利增长趋于同步，该基准指数的吸引⼒正在减弱。其前瞻市盈率已飙升⾄23倍，与疫情后峰值持平，接近互联⽹泡沫破灭前的历史⾼位。 The US index now trades at a premium of more than 50% toglobal peers. The drivers that pushed S&P 500 prices andearnings higher in the past decade, such as rising margins,lower taxes and low interest rates, are unlikely to be as strongin the coming 10 years, the Goldman team said. 当前美股指数的估值较全球同类市场⾼出50%以上。⾼盛团队表⽰，过去⼗年推动标普500指数价格和盈利增长的诸多因素——如利润率上升、税率下降和低利率环境——在未来⼗年不太可能维持同等强度。 “The S&P 500 net profit margin and ROE currently standnear record highs, and many of the tailwinds to corporateprofitability in recent decades are unlikely to boost profits to a similar extent going forward,” the strategists said. 策略师们指出："标普500指数的净利润率和股本回报率⽬前接近历史峰值，近⼏⼗年来推动企业盈利增长的诸多顺风因素，未来不太可能继续以同等幅度推升利润。" Site feedback:Take our Survey Confidential tip?Send a tip to our reporters Before it's here, it's on theBloomberg Terminal