城市供暖：评估风险和确定干预措施（英）

URBAN HEAT:ASSESSING RISKS AND © 2026 The World Bank1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet:www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved This work is a product of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressedin this work do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data includedin this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in theinformation, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods,processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, links/footnotes and Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or considered to be a limitation upon or waiver ofthe privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved. Rights and Permissions The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages disseminationof its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “Jones, Nicholas K.W.2026.Urban Heat: AssessingRisks and Identifying Interventions. City Climate Finance Gap Fund Technical Note. © World Bank.” Anyqueriesonrightsandlicenses,includingsubsidiaryrights,shouldbeaddressedtoWorldBankPublications,TheWorldBank,1818HStreetNW,Washington,DC20433,USA;fax:202-522-2625; Urban Heat:AssessingRisks and Identifying Contents Preface: How to use this Technical Note 1. Planning a heat risk assessment: scope, objectives, activities2. Assessment of Extreme Heat Risks: Key Methodologies2.1 What extreme heat hazard does my city face?2.2 How does extreme heat affect my city’s population? Preface: How to use this Technical Note What is the purpose of this Technical Note? Heatstress is causing unnecessary death,illness,economic loss and reduction ofinfrastructure and urban service quality across cities globally.Assessment of urban heat riskscan help cities reduce these adverse impacts by providing an evidence base to plan, prioritize,design and implement policies and investments for heat resilience. This Technical Note aims Who is it for? The intended audience for this note is city staff and their technical partners including What channels of heat risk are addressed? Extreme heat places human bodies under strain causing death, illness and loss of work outputand affects the materials and processes that make up infrastructure systems. As such, this What methodologies are covered? Twelve methodologies are presented. These include methodologies to measure and model heathazard which differ in their data collection approachand the spatial and temporal scale of their How should I select between methodologies? This Technical Note distinguishes three levels of heat risk assessment: preliminary, strategicand detailed (see Figure 1). A key first step is to decide on aims of the assessment–which mayrange from building an initial knowledge base tosupporting the detailed design and appraisal How is the note structured? Section 1 presents key considerations for planning a heat risk assessment. Section 2 presentsmethodologies that can be used in such an assessment. This are divided into methodologies toassess heat hazard (2.1) and methodologies to assess the likelihood and severity of its impacts challenge, and discusses the roles of city versus national stakeholders in implementing these. Is thisnotecomprehensive? Methodologies to assess heat risk stem from several research fields including climate science,physical geography, and environmental public health. The ‘state of the art’ in urban heat riskassessment has advanced rapidly with new measurement and modellingincreasingly being Consult theRoadmap then review the material based on your city’s needs and starting point. 1. Planning a heat risk assessment: scope, objectives, activities Climate change and the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect are jointly producing an increased frequencyand intensity of hot conditions that cause death, illness, loss of economic output, and reducedinfrastructure functionality alongside other adverse impacts.Conducting a heat risk assessment is Risk assessments can help understand the challenge, build consensus, prioritize and designresponses, and make a case for necessary budget allocations. But extreme urban heat presents adistinctive set of challenges around methodology, data needs, and stakeholder involvement. This Defining heat risks In an urban context, the term "heat risks" refers to the combined likelihood and impact of adverseconsequences from heat stress that people, economies and assets may be exposed to. These Motivation: why assess extreme urban heat risks? Cities around the world are increasingly working with partners to assess the risks their people,economies and infrastructure face due to extrem