谁控制着全球石化行业，以及这将如何改变？

Abdullah AlHassan, Luc Leruth, Adnan Mazarei, Charles Meuwly,Joseph Moussa, and Pierre Régibeau. March 2026. ABSTRACT. Petrochemicals are integral to modern economies. They are used in manyproducts such as fertilizers, plastics, fibers and clothing, cosmetics, electronics,and medicines. Petrochemicals are also becoming the fastest-growing sourceof demand for oil. The 2026 conflict in the Middle East has underscoredvulnerabilities in the petrochemical sector and food security. Middle Easternproducers account for much of the global supply of key petrochemical products,including fertilizers, and one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade transits theStrait of Hormuz. It is, therefore, important to understand the structure of theindustry to attenuate supply chain vulnerabilities. In this paper, we examine bothgeographical dispersion and corporate control over the industry. Our analysisshows that the global petrochemical industry is largely concentrated in China, theUnited States, and Saudi Arabia. However, control is more pronounced in Chinaand other Asian countries, whereas US investors exercise relatively limited controlover the global petrochemical industry. Abdullah AlHassanisdeputy division chiefat the InternationalMonetary Fund. Luc Leruthis anassociate researcherat the University ofClermont Ferrand. Adnan Mazareiis anonresident seniorfellow at the PetersonInstitute for InternationalEconomics. Charles Meuwlyis abusiness developer atZENO-Indices. Joseph Moussaisa research analystat the InternationalMonetary Fund. JEL Codes:G3, L1, L7, Q3, Q5.Key Words:ownership, voting power, supply chain, petrochemicals, geopolitics. Pierre Régibeauis avisiting professor atthe Warsaw School ofEconomics. The views expressedin this paper are thoseof the authors and notnecessarily those of theinstitutions with whichthey are affiliated. Note:The authors are grateful to Shahrokh Fardoust, Steven Fries, Cullen Hendrix,Hossein Razavi, and Luc Renneboog for helpful discussions; and to Idriss Zitouni forearly research assistance. They also thank Madona Devasahayam and Cameron Fletcherfor editing the paper. This paper is based on proprietary data from the London StockExchange Group (LSEG, formerly Refinitiv), processed using the Z-CAT softwareof ZENO-Indices. I.INTRODUCTION. Petrochemicals are integral to modern economies. They are used in productssuch as fertilizers, plastics, fibers and clothing, cosmetics, electronics,and medicines. The conflict in the Middle East in 2026 has underscoredvulnerabilities in the petrochemical sector and food security. Middle Easternproducers—Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, andthe United Arab Emirates—account for about 20 percent of the global supplyof key petrochemical products (Barclays Investment Bank 2026). Moreover,approximately one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade transits the Strait ofHormuz (UNCTAD 2026), creating substantial risks to global food supplies. Understanding the topography of the petrochemical industry, including itssize, geographical distribution, and ownership and control structure, is essentialto grasp this critical component of global economic activity. In this context,mapping the industry’s evolving ownership structure and regional concentrationhas emerged as a key prerequisite for assessing supply chain resilience andnational security risks. Some of the main reasons for closely monitoring developments in thepetrochemical industry include: •Petrochemicals are rapidly becoming the fastest-growing component ofglobal oil demand, as the relevance of crude oil to chemical technologieshas grown. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA 2025), thepetrochemical sector is expected to remain the primary source of oil demandgrowth through 2030.1This trend may particularly benefit regions such as theMiddle East and North America (IEA 2018, OPEC 2024), which traditionallyproduce lighter oil grades favored in producing petrochemicals. •Petrochemicals are essential inputs for clean energy technologies. They areused in components for solar panels, wind turbines, and electric vehicles,making them central to global shifts away from fossil fuels. At the sametime, the industry aims to transition to sustainable materials and cleanerproduction technologies, driven by heightened public awareness ofenvironmental challenges. •The petrochemical industry has followed the reorientation in global tradeand economic growth, with developing economies leading the growth. Theindustry has shifted significantly from Western to Eastern companies, withproduction capacity and consumption centers increasingly concentrated inAsia, particularly China. As petrochemical products are key inputs to manyindustries, supply chain disruptions are a challenge in the short run, especiallyin the context of potential geoeconomic fragmentation and tensions. Theconcentration of medical supplies during the COVID-19 pandemic and exportcontrol mechanisms for rar