强化低成本合成气竞争优势，核心产品整体销量显著提升

强化低成本合成气竞争优势，核心产品整体销量显著提升Strengtheningthe competitive advantage of low-costgas&overall sales of core productsincreased 最新动态 ➢产品销量稳步提升，海外订单大幅增加。2025年，集团实现营收253.52亿元，同比增长9.6%；实现归母净利润9.32亿元，同比下降36.1%。集团加大营销转型力度，聚焦客户需求提供差异化服务，同时推行工贸一体化运行模式，有效带动产品销量稳步提升，其中复合肥、甲醇增量明显。同时，集团把握出口窗口期，积极拓展海外市场，推动海外订单大幅增加，其中尿素出口占比同比提升6个百分点。核心产品整体销量显著提升，带动收入同比增长10%。 ➢强化低成本合成气竞争优势。集团坚持“低成本+差异化”的核心盈利模式，持续深化降本增效、差异化竞争优势，保障整体经营质量稳健运行。集团从工艺提效、原料供给、技术迭代等方面，强化低成本合成气竞争优势，带动化肥及化工板块成本进一步节降。2025年，集团全面应用两煤掺烧技术，同步推进专项降本技术改造，有效降低生产成本13%，实现综合能耗较行业平均水平低10%，提升了产品盈利空间。另外，集团进一步优化资金配置，充分把握宏观环境与政策红利，通过置换高息贷款、争取税收优惠等方式，在节降财务费用3%的同时，增厚其他收益32%，有效抵御市场波动，确保整体盈利水平符合预期。 动向解读 ➢推进规模化发展，提升产能与市场优势。集团以“项目建设”与“营销转型”两大核心抓手，持续扩大产能规模与市场规模。随着九江二期项目的顺利投运，低成本优质产能进一步释放，有效降低江西基地吨尿素成本约80元，为集团大项目建设及产能优化布局树立标杆。同时，新乡基地化工新材料项目及准东新基地均按计划推进，预计五大生产基地产能全面释放，集团化肥市占率将提升6个百分点。 ➢立足全球化视野，提升海外市场竞争力。集团加速推进全球化战略，深耕东南亚市场，2025年海外收入占比同比提升4个百分点，海外业务增长动能持续释放。目前，泰国示范基地已运营成熟，形成可复制的市场拓展模式。未来，集团将逐步覆盖越南、老挝等周边国家，依托成熟运营经验深化与海外客户战略合作，持续提升集团品牌知名度与市场影响力，进一步扩大海外市场份额，打造全球化业务增长模式。 策略建议 ➢盈利预测。我们公司预计2026-2028年归母净利润分别为13.69亿元、17.62亿元、21.78亿元。结结合可比公司估值及A-H股估值差异，给予公司2026年11.6倍PE，按照港元兑0.88汇率计算，对应目标价为14.02港币，维持“买入”评级。 风险提示 原材料价格波动、下游需求不及预期、在建项目进度不及预期。 分析师介绍 分析师庄怀超，拥有北京航空航天大学本科学位和香港大学金融学硕士学位，主要覆盖能源化工和材料行业。 该分析师2022-2024年曾任职于海通国际研究部，团队2022年获得过亚洲货币第一名，该分析师2025年加入环球富盛理财有限公司，继续覆盖化工和新材料行业。环球富盛理财有限公司是一家香港的持牌券商机构，成立于2014年。 该分析师曾在wind发布报告超过600篇，主要覆盖标的包括： 1）化工&化肥：东岳集团、环球新材国际、中国联塑、阜丰集团、中国三江化工、浦林成山、中海石油化学、中国旭阳集团、龙蟠科技、彩客新能源、天德化工、中国心连心化肥、中化化肥、米高集团、大成生化科技； 2）能源&公用事业：中创新航、中集安瑞科、新奥能源、中国电力、长江基建集团、中国能源建设、中煤能源、宏华集团、中海油田服务、安东油田服务、惠生工程、协合新能源、北京能源国际、绿色动力环保、中国光大绿色环保、首钢资源、山高新能源、新特能源、中裕能源、北京燃气蓝天、达力普控股； 3）有色&材料：中国宏桥、中国有色矿业、紫金黄金国际、万国黄金集团、潼关黄金、中国罕王、中广核矿业、稀美资源、首佳科技、信义光能、华新水泥、华润建材科技、大明国际。 微信：zhuangcharles邮箱：charles.zhuang@gpf.com.hk电话：(852)97487114; (86) 18801353537 The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng IndexTime Horizon: 6 to 18 months SECTOR RATING DEFINITIONThe Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS (1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and/or its subsidiaries do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization ofthe issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4)Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not had investment banking relationships with the issuermentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months. (5) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries are not making a market in the securities in respect of the issuermentioned in this Research Report. (6) Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries have not employed an individual serving as an officerof the issuermentioned in this Research Report. There is no officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report associated withGlobal ProsperityFinancial Company Limitedand/or its subsidiaries. DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Global Prosperity FinancialCompany Limited. Global Prosperity Financial Company Limited and its group companies may do business that relates to companies coveredin research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor,underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by salespersons, dealers and other professional executives of Global Prosperity Financial Company Limitedgroup of companies. Any opinionsexpressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment bankinggroups ofGlobal Prosperity Financial Company Limited. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report,Global ProsperityFinancial Company Limited does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This ResearchReportmay contain some forward-lookingestimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions withinherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understandand comprehend the investmentobjectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen orresident of or locatedin any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which wouldsubjectGlobal Prosperity Fina