国内营销反馈：是时候探索蓝天情景了吗？

REMD sky scenario? four years, in broad agreement that home prices will drop less Head of Asia Real Estate and HK Equity ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedmichellekwok@hsbc.com.hk+85229966918StephenWang*,CFA +This coincides with rising interest from Hong Kong andSingapore investors, though positions remain light Analyst,AsiaRealEstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedstephen.wang@hsbc.com.hk+85222841675Oliver Yu* + Maintain our view that 2026 is a critical year of inflection-prefer CRL, C&D, and Seazen,all ratedBuy Analyst,Asia Real EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedoliver.y.o.x.yu@hsbc.com.hk+85222882050 on the China property sector, in stark contrast to the tone in 2025. The surprisinglyupbeat tone among investors aligns with a progressive rise in southbound holdingsamong stocks in our coverage along with the recent surge in secondary transactionvolume.Webelievehomeownersarenolongerdesperatetoexitandbuyersaregradually re-entering. Refer to our note on why we believe secondary market liquiditymatters in driving a broader market recovery (From exit to upgrade-why resaleliquidity matters, 24 March). not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Exploringablue-skyscenario:Thefactthat Shanghai's secondarysales recoveryhad preceded the recent policy announcement has got investors thinking about apotential blue-skyscenario,wherethemeaningfulhomeprice correctionhasbroughtthe market to a new equilibrium. In this scenario, further stimulus will be unnecessaryto restore market dislocation, accepting that market dynamics remain uneven acrosscity tiers.We believe this is the most desirable outcome, and maintain our view that2026 is a critical year of inflection for the housing market (Housing wealth reset-why2026 matters for China's households, 16 March). Hong Kong versus mainland China. Investors haveasked about whether mainlandunderlying drivers are different, but it was also recognised that both markets aresimilar,given the limited numbers of large, liquid andfundamentally sounddevelopers/landlordsforinvestorstoincreasepositionsiftheyhaveoptimisticviewsIn Hong Kong, SHKP (16 HK, Buy, CMP HKD131.20) is a proxy, while CRL is seen asan industry bellwether in mainland China. In our view, reallocation to China propertywill be a theme this year, likely following Hong Kong property stocks' re-rating. CRL remains the key focus. There is optimism on CRL's quality investmentproperty portfolio, while the strong brand equity it has established in its developmentproperty business has evolved significantly,with more diversified product offeringsbeyondtraditionalluxuryhomes.ItsheavyresidentialexposureinShanghai(c12%otsaleable resources)is also seen asbenefiting fromtheprevailing momentum.Valuation is seen tobeundemanding.Othernames that cameup indiscussioninclude Buy-rated C&D (as a laggard play) and Seazen (given the potential upcomingC-REIT spin-off). HSBC GlobalInvestment Summit 14 to 16 April 2026 Find out more Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures&Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBCGlobalInvestmentResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.com Valuation charts A-Living3319 HK Disclosure appendix The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s) whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views orforecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any otherviews orforecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflectrecommendation(s)or views contained in this researchreport:MichelleKwok,Stephen Wang,CFAand OliverYu Equities: Stockratings and basis forfinancialanalysis HSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report (HSBC) believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestors utilise various disciplines and investmenthorizons whenmaking investment decisions.Ratings should not be used orrelied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different ratingsystems to describe their recommendations and therefore investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used ineach research report. Further, investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from the ratingbecause research r