中国房地产：上海调研

REMD unexpectedpunch supportivebackdropfornewhome sales+ Three key drivers underpinning price stabilisationPreferCRLand,SeazenandC&D-all ratedBuy Analyst,AsiaReal EstateThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedstephen.wang@hsbc.com.hk+852 2284 1675Michelle Kwok* Head of Asia Real Estate and HK Equity ResearchThe Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedmichellekwok@hsbc.com.hk+85229966918OliverYu* (Homes and shops: Policy tailwinds and retail vitality, 26 Feb 26), Shanghai'shousing market has staged a robust rebound in March, with synchronised recoveryacross primary and secondarymarkets.Secondarytransactions are on track toexceed 30k units in March, likely the highest monthly level since 2021, on strongturnover in affordable “old and smal" units (老破小), where prices have begun tostabilise.Our site visits to high-end projects exceeded expectations: sales offices werebusy and consistently engaged with prospective buyers. Similar to the luxury projectswe visited in Shenzhen (Shenzhen tour: The late-arriving spring peak season, 20 Mar26), new launches are testing modest price increases, supported by solid sell-through.SomesalesmanagersexpectimprovingsalesmomentumtoextendintoApril-MayReturn to price stability in 2026. We held a client lunch with Mr Yu Lei, from CRIC. Analyst, Asia Real Estate The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limitedoliver.y.o.x.yu@hsbc.com.hk+85222882050Charlotte Ye* AssociateGuangzhou not registered/qualifed pursuant toFINRA regulations He expects Shanghai's secondary prices tofollowan"L-shaped"”recovery path in2026, on: 1) limited downside for"old and small" units, with rental yields of 2.5-3% -price correction and panic selling in 4Q25, creating a supportive base for stabilisation;3)pent-updemandsincelate2025beingreleasedamidpolicytailwinds.Webelievea liquid secondary market is critical to restart the transaction chain that supportsprimary sales (From“exit" to“upgrade": why resale liguidity matters,24 Mar 26). Pros and cons of productupgrade.The new homes market is undergoing astructural shift following the relaxation of project design in September 2025. Newprojects launched post-relaxation typically feature higher efficiency ratios, materiallyimprovingproductcompetitiveness.However,theyhavealsocannibaliseddemandfor legacy inventory and weighed on surrounding secondary prices.With priceregulation still in place,de-stocking for older projects remains slow.We werereassuredthatMrYu Leibelievesefficiencyratios are unlikelyto beloosenedfurther.Consequently,themarket impactfromthiswaveof superiornew supply should begradually absorbed, allowing the housing market to settle into a new equilibrium. Weseeourpreferreddevelopers,CRLandC&D(bothBuy)askeybeneficiariesofresilient upgrader demand and an improving margin backdrop in residential.CRL andand C-REIT tailwind, leveraging leadership in top- and lower-tier cities. Issuer of report: The Hongkong and ShanghaiBanking Corporation Limited Disclosures &Disclaimer This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications inthe Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. ViewHSBCGlobalInvestmentResearchat:https://www.research.hsbc.com A-Living3319HK Disclosure appendix The following analyst(s), economist(s), or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, including any analyst(s) whose name(s) appear(s) as author of an individual section or sections of the report and any analyst(s) named as the coveringanalyst(s) of a subsidiary company in a sum-of-the-parts valuation certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) orissuer(s), any views or forecasts expressed in the section(s) of which such individual(s) is(are) named as author(s), and any otherviews orforecasts expressed herein, including any views expressed on the back page of the research report, accurately reflecttheir personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specificrecommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Stephen Wang, CFA, Michelle Kwok and Oliver Yu Equities:Stockratings and basis forfinancialanalysis HSBC and its affiliates, including the issuer of this report ("HSBC") believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and thatinvestorsutilisevariousdisciplinesand investmenthorizons whenmaking investmentdecisions.Ratings shouldnotbe usedorrelied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different ratingsystems to describe their recommendations and therefore investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used ineach research report. Further, investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from the ratingbecause research reports contai