Boston Scientific-AF results outlook, target price $112

Boston Scientific Corp Rating Price Target 112.00 USD BSX Boston Scientific: No pressure... but we're all counting on you.Thoughts into CHAMPION-AF In today’s note, we offer thoughts on risk/reward into this weekend’s CHAMPION-AF readout(March 28, 9:30am-10:30am CT). Close Date25 Mar 2026BSX Close Price (USD)69.78Price Target (USD)112.00Upside/(Downside)61%52-Week Range109.50/67.56SPX6,591.90FYEDecDiv YieldNAMarket Cap (USD) (M)103,705EV (USD) (M)113,951 Medtech stocks have struggled, and BSX has been the worst of the bunch, down ~35%from Sep 2025 highs on fears about intensifying PFA competition and a tricky setup in tothe CHAMPION-AF readout (March 28) and Q1 earnings (~April 22). More broadly, U.S.Medtech has sharply lagged the market amid worries about weakness in Q1, potential marginpressures related to the Iran conflict, and a whole host of other issues (more below). Tricky setup?Experts give CHAMPION-AF a high probability of success, and we agree.What makes the setup tricky is that 1Q26 earnings are coming up on the heels of thisweekend’s readout (~April 22), and investors are concerned about Q1 weakness and apotential guidance cut. Per Exhibit 10, we hear investors talk about an up/down of something around $75.00/$56.50 for a risk-adjusted return of +3.5% on the readout.We have a more favorable viewof risk/reward here (+10%). If CHAMPION-AF hits, wethink the stock could grind higher into Q1, perhaps up to $80. Having that important multi-year growth driver in your back pocket might help investors think about the Q1 setup a little differently. And on the downside, we have a hard time seeing BSX get down to a MDTmultiple (15x), even if CHAMPION-AF fails. We believe there’s a good case to add here. Investment Implications We rate BSX Outperform with a price target of $112(unchanged) using a P/E multipleof 28x against our FY27 EPS of $3.97 (down slightly from $4.00). We like the stock into theMarch 28 Champion readout. For more, see our investor day takeaways and recent 7-minute pitch (see replay, BSX at minute 8:45, slides here). Model: BSX Table Of Contents Portfolio Manager’s Summary............................................................................................................................................................................................. 2PM Summary Charts........................................................................................................................................................................................................4Background................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 72025 growth story = concomitant DRG reimbursement + OPTION data.......................................................................................................... 9Timeline of key events that have helped unlock the concomitant opportunity........................................................................................ 10Some clinical debates from the OPTION trial............................................................................................................................................................. 12Why can CHAMPION be the biggest thing to happen to WATCHMAN?............................................................................................................15Clinical considerations going into the CHAMPION read-out (March 28 at ACC 2026)............................................................................... 18Other trials to watch out for as we consider the WATCHMAN opportunity......................................................................................................22 We begin with a high-level summary of our thoughts followed by 10 charts to amplify this PM Summary. Then in the rest of thenote, we dive deeper into some of the key issues related to the CHAMPION-AF readout. PORTFOLIO MANAGER’S SUMMARY BSX stock has struggled, down ~35% from Sep 2025 highs(Exhibit 1). Farapulse, BSX’s flagship pulsed field ablation (PFA) product, drove incredibly strong growth for BSX as it ramped—organic growth averaged over 18% from 3Q24 to 2Q25.But over the past 9 months, as Farapulse growth rates came back down to earth (Exhibit 2), investors have grown increasinglyanxious about new PFA competitors. BSX’s CEO tried to calm concerns leading up to 4Q25, but despite the fact that 80% of the business beat consensus (by $52mn), BSX missed where it mattered most—in U.S. EP (by $37mn), and in U.S. Watchman (by$9mn). Concerned about BSX’s two key franchises (Farapulse & Watchman), investors wondered whether there were enoughgrowth drivers in the core business to help BSX hit its 10%-11% organic growth guidance for 2026. BSX shares dove 18% to $75.50 after the Q4 call in Feb, and since then, shares have slid another 8% to settle ju